Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Mon Dec 21 14:16:49 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Democrats are now doing notably better in in-person voting, with Biden winning an estimated 57% of in-person early vote v. 53.5 percent at this stage of the general election. But absentee voters represent a lower share of the vote to all but perfectly cancel it out — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Using this data and the voter file, our estimate is that the voters who have turned out so far would have voted essentially identically to the same point in the general election (Biden 59.4 v. 59.3), despite all the various demographic shifts and changes in vote method — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, in the end the Democrats will probably need to do better in advanced voting than they did in the general, simply to makeup for their deficit in the general. And even then, election day could be more GOP to cancel it out — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 21, 2020 Hibernated