Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@researchrants @NateSilver538 yes, and i'm pretty sure that headline has been changed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 if we polled the senate and all of them were normal and then warnock+14... you would be just as upset if we declared they were great polls for democrats because warnock was running away with it. that would be stupid — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 i don't really see you disagreeing that 3/4 results are totally consistent with expectations. if we hadn't polled KS3, we wouldn't be having this discussion. there's other information that says it's a likely outlier, i'm not going to lean into it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 and that also seems true based on the 538 model. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 again, KS3 -- definitely a very good result for the democrats. possible outlier. the rest are basically as expected. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 have you done any work to figure out how the polling in these races fits v the overall house picture? it doesn't sound like it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris i'm saying we're sampling higher response rate *districts* that have had above average productivity in prior polls, fewer bad telephone numbers, more favorable demographics. like if you want to know why we polled NM and KS, here it is: https://t.co/B95bsXJMYx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Again, I'd direct you back to my first point -- the additional information informing our priors. There's a consensus Cartwright/Davids are up; there's a consensus GOP leads. Thus, polling showing Cartwright/Davids up doesn't change view https://t.co/EzEFbTdMab — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The second reason is the third graf: the Democrats just don't have room for any losses. A world where Biden+6-8 races like NM02 and NV01 are pure tossups is not a tossup for national control. It's just not — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If KS-3 was previously seen as something more like a pure tossup, I would have had a lot more pause about that take. But it does seem pretty clear this is a district where Dems had the edge (see Wasserman last night), even these numbers came in extra good for dems — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Why? One reason: our understanding of the state of the race in these districts v nationwide. Other than KS-3, these results are all very much in line with expectations from private polling -- and that polling shows the GOP on track to take the House. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot of replies asking some version of 'why are these House polls additional evidence of a GOP House?' It's a fair question -- esp since, as noted, polls were better than expected for Democrats. And despite the add to the top, the piece doesn't address the national race at all — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: There’s a reason @CookPolitical moved #KS03 Rep. Sharice Davids (D) from Toss Up to Lean D this week: several red state Dem… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

no--in no small part because high expected response rate (other than NV) based on previous polls was a major selection criteria in all three districts, given the costs https://t.co/xQp8XDi3IT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

well gas prices are falling after all https://t.co/QnE234cWAF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@brianros1 @JosephSzymanski dk about this respondent, but CCM was running ahead of titus in the CD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Though oddly enough, our KS-3 poll from 9/18 also ranks as one of the most surprising polls we ever published and... it did turn out ok https://t.co/5XhvjAVEOg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of all the >150 Times/Siena polls we've ever published, I'd have to say this KS-3 poll would rank very near the top of the list in terms of difference between the result and my prior going into the polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obviously, four districts can't say a ton about the battle for the House. But on balance, the polls are better for Democrats than I would have guessed given our national polling (yes, the methodology is identical), esp in KS-03 -- which feels like a possible outlier — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have a few NYT/Siena polls in a handful of interesting House races for you this evening: KS-3: D+14, 55-41 NV-1: Even, 47-47 NM-2: D+1, 48-47 PA-8: D+6, 50-44 https://t.co/R2RpVKttgg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw @baseballot @lxeagle17 @DrewLinzer @Civiqs @kabir_here @doug_rivers i guess i'll add one caveat -- i do think there's a good case for 538 to exclude Civiqs modeling, not on the groudns that it's MRP but because they appear to pool data over time (but @DrewLinzer can correct me on that). that is the kind of thing that 538 wants to handle itself — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw @baseballot @lxeagle17 @DrewLinzer @Civiqs also aren't the CBS/YouGov polls MRP-based? my (now very old) recollection is that the horse-race is raked to marginals from MRP @kabir_here @doug_rivers — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw @baseballot @lxeagle17 @DrewLinzer @Civiqs and i think there's a distinct chance that we'd transition to MRP in future cycles -- not because of small area estimation but because it's a vastly better framework for adjusting on multiple variables — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw @baseballot @lxeagle17 @DrewLinzer @Civiqs i see why 538 wouldn't take state-level MRP estimates, but i don't see the difference between a national poll with MRP and rake weighting from 538's point of view — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You Be the Ump 6/7 ✅✅✅✅✅✅⚪️ https://t.co/zgAjckURDz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BruneElections eek you're right; will correct. thanks! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot fortunately, footballot will work for you too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot also very off-brand to be throwing a draft pick in this offer — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot yeah i'm going to need some cash considerations with that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot while i'm here, i'll say it -- i want the nowcast back — PolitiTweet.org