Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This stems mostly from the urban vs. rural composition of the country. Nationwide, there are about the same number of people living in big cities and rural areas. But in the Senate, rural areas get 2.5x more representation (!) than big cities. https://t.co/Q3u1I1oJf2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We ran the numbers, and the Senate is currently around *6 to 7 points* (!) more Republican than the country as a whole, based on the position of the median states relative to the national average. That means Dems need ~landslide margins to win the Senate. https://t.co/0OejJ56Lia — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes "Plan" is a stretch. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Could courts put a thumb on the scale for Trump in the case of a close or ambiguous result? Sure. They very well might. But that's an order of magnitude or two removed from overturning an obvious Biden victory. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

—wide enough that it would be clear soon enough (probably on election night based on states that counted ballots quickly; if not, soon thereafter) that Biden was the legitimate winner. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Possible? OK. How likely? I don't know, and am not sure how you'd go about estimating it. But it is not "probable, barring some extreme actions". It is not the base case. That's in part because the base case (if polls are right) involves Biden winning by a pretty wide margin— — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also possible the race is tightening nationally but not in swing states. As @Nate_Cohn points out, that could be the case if e.g. Biden's ad spending is helping him, or he's doing well among the types of voters who are overrepresented in swing states. https://t.co/Yz4fwJqrDN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd say it remains unclear from the totality of state and national polling whether the race has tightened since the conventions. (National data would suggest yes, state polls mostly not.) The race probably has tightened from June/July though when Biden's lead was around 9 points. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden is +6.8 in our national polling average following an NBC/WSJ poll that has him +8 among registered voters. Poll was taken before the RBG news. A +8 among registered voters is closer to a +7 or +7.5 among likely voters FWIW. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/RfCIWSjvcw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jodyavirgan It is back, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

New York City is back! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Poll was taken before the news... but that Selzer poll has brought the Iowa Senate race even closer to a toss-up. https://t.co/LCqUda6TwY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I mean I dunno what's gonna happen with the Supreme Court. But I do think people are overthinking it a bit. Probably if you're McConnell you just want to get somewhat confirmed as soon as you can, and then deal with the consequences (electorally and otherwise) later. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure this matters *that* much. Among other things, it's bit late in the day to spend all that money as effectively as you might. But if you're one of those pundits whose prior was "this will fire up Republicans more than Democrats", you might want to revisit that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: 🎧 Emergency pod 🎧 How a SCOTUS vacancy will shape the 2020 election. Spoiler: we don't know yet, but we have some indicat… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @baseballot: YouGov is already out with a SCOTUS poll: Voters think 51–42% that Trump should not appoint a new justice before 2021. If… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

4. Finally, he could say, "we'll, will see". But, people would probably (correctly) assume that means "we'll confirm anyway". Also, I'm not sure spitting the baby in that way avoids some combination of the other problems, or if the ambiguity does say Susan Collins any favors. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3. If he says "then it would be up to the Democrats" ... but re-negs and tries to confirm anyway ... OK, maybe? But that could be wildly unpopular, might lose a couple of institutionalist senators, and could trigger retaliation from Democrats (e.g. expanding the court). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1. If McConnell says "then we'll confirm them in the lame-duck session anyway", they can do that... but then that also "takes the prize off the table". 2. If he says "then it would be up to the Democrats" ... and holds firm to that... well, he's losing a Supreme Court seat. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't quite get why the unnamed senator thinks this is a great strategy here. If McConnell says "we're not going to vote until after the election", then people will of course ask "what if Republicans lose the election?" He has 4 ways to answer, all of which have some issues: https://t.co/G9dkNAhCOe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @grace_panetta: What confuses me about this take is that RBG dying during a Republican presidency been many liberals’ worst fear for at… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @grace_panetta: What confuses me about this take is that RBG dying during a Republican presidency been many liberals’ worst fear for at… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Adding DC and Puerto Rico as states would nontrivially reduce Democrats' disadvantage and therefore might be the better move in the long run for the party than adding SCOTUS seats, not that they'd necessarily have to choose between those options. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the long run so much comes down to the Republican/rural tilt of the Senate given current party coalitions. Maybe Democrats can win the occasional Supreme Court battle but they'll lose more often than they win and they'll never the *war* so long as that persists. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ryanabest: Lowkey my favorite part of the new @FiveThirtyEight Senate pages — in GA and LA, if no candidate reaches 50% of the vote, th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not my job to tell people what to do with their money but we do think our Senate model does a pretty good job of understanding which races are relatively more or less competitive. https://t.co/eev4w6wba9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: Ruth Bader Ginsburg reshaped jurisprudence in the U.S., particularly as an advocate for women’s rights. She was a cul… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I suppose my prior is that the public is gonna be like 40-50 against confirming anyone before the election. Low confidence on this one though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Just went for a long bike ride when the news broke and I don't have any cold takes yet, let alone hot ones, in case you came to this account looking for one. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We find that partisan polls exaggerate their party's standing by ~3 points in the presidential race on average, so our model will treat that more like a Biden +3, which is pretty close to our current forecast there. — PolitiTweet.org