Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 15, 2021

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Sun Sep 20 13:27:11 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also possible the race is tightening nationally but not in swing states. As @Nate_Cohn points out, that could be the case if e.g. Biden's ad spending is helping him, or he's doing well among the types of voters who are overrepresented in swing states. https://t.co/Yz4fwJqrDN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd say it remains unclear from the totality of state and national polling whether the race has tightened since the conventions. (National data would suggest yes, state polls mostly not.) The race probably has tightened from June/July though when Biden's lead was around 9 points. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Possible? OK. How likely? I don't know, and am not sure how you'd go about estimating it. But it is not "probable, barring some extreme actions". It is not the base case. That's in part because the base case (if polls are right) involves Biden winning by a pretty wide margin— — PolitiTweet.org

The base case now is Trump loses popular vote, falsely challenges legitimacy of key votes and wins reelection via p… https://t.co/awYNzeGeUm

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated