Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 15, 2021

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Sun Sep 20 13:17:42 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd say it remains unclear from the totality of state and national polling whether the race has tightened since the conventions. (National data would suggest yes, state polls mostly not.) The race probably has tightened from June/July though when Biden's lead was around 9 points. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden is +6.8 in our national polling average following an NBC/WSJ poll that has him +8 among registered voters. Poll was taken before the RBG news. A +8 among registered voters is closer to a +7 or +7.5 among likely voters FWIW. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/RfCIWSjvcw — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also possible the race is tightening nationally but not in swing states. As @Nate_Cohn points out, that could be the case if e.g. Biden's ad spending is helping him, or he's doing well among the types of voters who are overrepresented in swing states. https://t.co/Yz4fwJqrDN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated