Tweet by @NateSilver538

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Possible? OK. How likely? I don't know, and am not sure how you'd go about estimating it. But it is not "probable, barring some extreme actions". It is not the base case. That's in part because the base case (if polls are right) involves Biden winning by a pretty wide margin— — PolitiTweet.org

The base case now is Trump loses popular vote, falsely challenges legitimacy of key votes and wins reelection via p… https://t.co/awYNzeGeUm

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also possible the race is tightening nationally but not in swing states. As @Nate_Cohn points out, that could be the case if e.g. Biden's ad spending is helping him, or he's doing well among the types of voters who are overrepresented in swing states. https://t.co/Yz4fwJqrDN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

—wide enough that it would be clear soon enough (probably on election night based on states that counted ballots quickly; if not, soon thereafter) that Biden was the legitimate winner. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated