Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Mail is the only way to vote in Colorado and every registered voter gets a ballot, so it's not like these Republicans are sitting around waiting to vote in person. They're just waiting longer to send in their ballots. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Colorado's another example of why there won't necessarily be a "blue shift" in late-counted ballots (and could even be a red shift). Dems lead by 13 points in mail ballots returned so far. But the mail ballots that *haven't* been returned yet are +3 GOP. https://t.co/XnaLyJWcVi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd also note that this didn't have much effect on our *forecast*, which is mostly based on state polls and uses different mechanics for handling national polls to the extent it uses them at all. It shows Biden +8.0 in the popular vote, essentially unchanged from +8.1 yesterday. https://t.co/j2oqXE5nEB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not perfect, and we'll probably tinker with these mechanics post-2020, but keep in mind that our averages are really a blend of an RCP style average over a fixed window of time (where this sort of thing happens a lot) and a HuffPost/Pollster style trendline. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Following major events like debates, our average shifts forward the window of time that it considers, and more recent polls have indeed been more consistent with a Biden lead of about 9 points nationally; haven't seen as many of those Biden +14s lately. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hey folks, our national polling average is now Biden +9.2, as compared with Biden +9.7 yesterday. What caused the change given that the national tracking polls were decent for Biden this AM? It's older polls dropping out of the average. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/13oHKIpiEo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@stevesingiser Yeah, sometimes there are non-intuitive changes based on polls dropping out of the window the average considers. These are more likely to occur after major events (e.g. debates) when it gets quicker to throw out "old" data. It isn't perfect, but that's what's happening. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Craig_A_Spencer: @NateSilver538 Rising cases is one thing, and certainly a reason to be worried. But when combined with the 35% increa… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not some sort of COVID alarmist... I've tried to stay pretty even-keeled and have been burned by being too optimistic at times... but I find the rising case rates in the US (and for that matter also Europe) pretty worrisome right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I'm trying to figure out how much Biden would have to win by for the conventional wisdom to become that polls had effed up rather than called the winner correctly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Without adjusting for partisanship (probably more D internals than R in here I would guess), recent congressional district polls would imply an 11 or 12 point shift toward Biden from 2016 results, i.e. that he's up by around 13 or 14 points nationally. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @CoreyinNYC: I just walked through Greenwich Village for an hour. It is PACKED. I’ve never seen it busier. NYC IS NOT A 👻👻👻 TOWN! http… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Crimealytics The nowcast is dead, Jeff. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One way to think about Trump's chances: if the polls move toward Trump in the closing days rather than Biden (50/50 chance) *and* there's a polling error in Trump's favor (50/50 chance) then he's 50/50 to win. That gets you to his 1 in 8 odds in our current forecast. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes Probably true in most places, but in NY and some other states with good testing programs, maybe less so. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This site, which adjusts for testing volume, estimates that all but 4 states and DC have increasing caseloads right now. In some cases, it's a pretty flat slope, but there's a more serious increase (Rt of 1.1 or above) in about half the country right now. https://t.co/oAQ2y08bJ5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The good news is that it's on a record number of tests, 1.28 million. However, positive test rates have increased, as have hospitalizations, so this can't be attributed entirely to testing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

.@COVID19Tracking, my go-to source, is reporting 83,010 newly-diagnosed COVID cases today, a record high for the US. The previous record was 76,842 on July 17. https://t.co/07wsSsbSvx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: This... is... MODEL TALK! https://t.co/EM6KeuQyIE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende @tucker_doherty Yeah. Like some of those Eastern European countries that did amazingly well in the spring but are getting hit hard now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @tucker_doherty: @SeanTrende @NateSilver538 The way I think about this is that it looks like rurality (in the U.S. context at least) oft… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi @SeanTrende They're pretty similar density-wise but much redder.... https://t.co/46aA1poj7G — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also: small average household size, not very religious (to the extent that church gatherings can serve a vector for spread) and quite "outdoor-oriented", although that could start to be a problem with colder weather. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One starting point might be that they are among the only states in the country that are rural (indeed, *quite* rural based on the more sophisticated density metrics I prefer) but not particularly Republican so maybe more mask-wearing, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What are Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine doing right on COVID? With almost every other state having been hit hard at some point or another, they've become real outliers relative to the rest of the country. https://t.co/bLwPqXr4ex — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @penguinpress: What are you reading this weekend? As we get closer to #ElectionDay, check out @NateSilver538's The Signal and the Noise… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As someone who was very sharply critical of how the press covered 2016, I think it has by and large done a good job in 2020 under tough circumstances. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

States will count those as mail ballots, so if some of those folks say they're voting early in person (and I imagine some of them do) there could be some skews between one's self-reported method of voting and how states tally their ballots. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I wonder if people who plan to *drop off absentee ballots at a box or other in-person location* classify themselves as "voting early in person" or "voting by mail" when being asked that in a poll. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It seems like North Carolina could be a real thorn in the side of Trump's re-election prospects. The polling's been very consistent lately in showing a small Biden lead. It has a D governor in case of administrative disputes. And Ds have banked a big lead there with early votes. — PolitiTweet.org