Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 3, 2021

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Fri Oct 23 18:57:54 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It seems like North Carolina could be a real thorn in the side of Trump's re-election prospects. The polling's been very consistent lately in showing a small Biden lead. It has a D governor in case of administrative disputes. And Ds have banked a big lead there with early votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So maybe the mediocre polling shows a tie in certain states. But because it's mediocre polling, you need to hedge against that with your prior, which is that Republicans will win in red states. A *trustworthy* poll showing Republicans narrowly ahead is consistent with that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I wonder if people who plan to *drop off absentee ballots at a box or other in-person location* classify themselves as "voting early in person" or "voting by mail" when being asked that in a poll. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2020 Hibernated