Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 31, 2021

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Fri Oct 23 18:27:58 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So maybe the mediocre polling shows a tie in certain states. But because it's mediocre polling, you need to hedge against that with your prior, which is that Republicans will win in red states. A *trustworthy* poll showing Republicans narrowly ahead is consistent with that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other thing is that polling in smaller states that aren't presidential swing states tends not to be great. You'll get some mix of internals, colleges that do good research but don't usually focus on the horse race, and online pollsters venturing a bit out of their depth. — PolitiTweet.org

This is true but I think a lot of the problem is that expectations ran a little ahead of themselves in states where… https://t.co/MgmhVgVgll

Posted Oct. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It seems like North Carolina could be a real thorn in the side of Trump's re-election prospects. The polling's been very consistent lately in showing a small Biden lead. It has a D governor in case of administrative disputes. And Ds have banked a big lead there with early votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2020 Hibernated