Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Sat Oct 24 16:25:08 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd also note that this didn't have much effect on our *forecast*, which is mostly based on state polls and uses different mechanics for handling national polls to the extent it uses them at all. It shows Biden +8.0 in the popular vote, essentially unchanged from +8.1 yesterday. https://t.co/j2oqXE5nEB — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not perfect, and we'll probably tinker with these mechanics post-2020, but keep in mind that our averages are really a blend of an RCP style average over a fixed window of time (where this sort of thing happens a lot) and a HuffPost/Pollster style trendline. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Colorado's another example of why there won't necessarily be a "blue shift" in late-counted ballots (and could even be a red shift). Dems lead by 13 points in mail ballots returned so far. But the mail ballots that *haven't* been returned yet are +3 GOP. https://t.co/XnaLyJWcVi — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated