Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 4, 2021

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Sat Oct 24 16:21:43 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not perfect, and we'll probably tinker with these mechanics post-2020, but keep in mind that our averages are really a blend of an RCP style average over a fixed window of time (where this sort of thing happens a lot) and a HuffPost/Pollster style trendline. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Following major events like debates, our average shifts forward the window of time that it considers, and more recent polls have indeed been more consistent with a Biden lead of about 9 points nationally; haven't seen as many of those Biden +14s lately. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd also note that this didn't have much effect on our *forecast*, which is mostly based on state polls and uses different mechanics for handling national polls to the extent it uses them at all. It shows Biden +8.0 in the popular vote, essentially unchanged from +8.1 yesterday. https://t.co/j2oqXE5nEB — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated