Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 3, 2021

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Sat Oct 24 16:18:44 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hey folks, our national polling average is now Biden +9.2, as compared with Biden +9.7 yesterday. What caused the change given that the national tracking polls were decent for Biden this AM? It's older polls dropping out of the average. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/13oHKIpiEo — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@stevesingiser Yeah, sometimes there are non-intuitive changes based on polls dropping out of the window the average considers. These are more likely to occur after major events (e.g. debates) when it gets quicker to throw out "old" data. It isn't perfect, but that's what's happening. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Following major events like debates, our average shifts forward the window of time that it considers, and more recent polls have indeed been more consistent with a Biden lead of about 9 points nationally; haven't seen as many of those Biden +14s lately. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated