Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 3, 2021

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Fri Oct 23 23:47:59 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One way to think about Trump's chances: if the polls move toward Trump in the closing days rather than Biden (50/50 chance) *and* there's a polling error in Trump's favor (50/50 chance) then he's 50/50 to win. That gets you to his 1 in 8 odds in our current forecast. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes Probably true in most places, but in NY and some other states with good testing programs, maybe less so. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Crimealytics The nowcast is dead, Jeff. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2020 Hibernated