Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not good. Well, good that there's so much testing but 170k cases very not good. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure about this narrative. New York State had 200K tests conducted yesterday despite having among the lower positivity rates in the country (although rising). If the rest of the country had NY's testing options we'd be a lot better off overall. https://t.co/ZSBaWgzxAX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @DecisionDeskHQ Yeah. DDHQ kind of scooped everyone. And it really was a pivotal moment; from that point onward I was ~95% sure that Biden would win (though would have been slightly less sure if AZ hadn't been called, which it shouldn't have been). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A bit underrated was also Minnesota and New Hampshire getting called relatively early for Biden. Suggested that the polling wasn't going to be *that* far off even in very white states, although of course those places have high levels of college graduates. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These were big, as was (in the other direction) Miami-Dade coming in relatively strongly for Trump, but Milwaukee putting Biden over the top in Wisconsin was probably *the* biggest single moment of election night. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@cwarzel The people in the CityMD type lines usually don't seem to show visible symptoms (e.g. coughing) but I'm sure it's a mix. But it is good that NY has a fairly robust testing infrastructure so people have options. 200K tests in NY state alone yesterday. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@cwarzel IDK, I decided to get tested yesterday even though I'd had no symptoms or known exposures just because cases are rising and it's easy to get tested in NY so hey why not. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One way you'll get to higher vaccine compliance is by various types of businesses requiring a vaccine or a negative test for entry. Probably also for e.g. international travel too. https://t.co/tdvE8vpP44 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: The 2020 presidential election map is settled. Biden will win 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232. https://t.co/i4cB… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What I mostly mean is that "what if Trump were more competent?" is a bad take because it overlooks a lot of Trump's strengths with Republican primary and low-propensity voters that may not be easy for Josh Hawley or Tom Cotton or whomever to replicate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @BenjySarlin: "Let's just reverse-engineer the last winner!" is not what seems to happen when you look at the list of modern presidents.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @mattyglesias: The needle told you about Georgia because the needle is good. All hail @Nate_Cohn and his needle, and let’s hope report… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Most Knicks move ever — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @JTHVerhovek: .@ABC News is also projecting that President Trump has won the state of North Carolina, based on an analysis of the vote… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: BREAKING: Joe Biden will win the state of Georgia, Edison projects. https://t.co/hbGx7kIZ24 https://t.co/bo5yYxILqd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Long term predictions are fool's errand but FWIW I think I'm more skeptical than the consensus here on the electoral prospects of Trumpism without Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Talked about this on this episode, but if polls had an easier time reaching people who were staying home because of COVID (one reason they may have had a Democratic skew) then one can imagine they were quite skewed with respect to tolerance for COVID restrictions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But at some point talking about uncertainty without invoking probabilities is like trying to formulate sentences without using the word "the". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If it's important to convey the uncertainty in polling—and it is—I struggle to see how showing probabilities *isn't* an important part of the toolkit. With smart methods for both calculating those probabilities and placing them in context, of course. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What's left out there? * 1.6m+ mail votes in NY that are going to be VERY blue. * ~1m votes elsewhere in the Northeast (MD/MA/NJ/DC) * ~1m in CA, though that includes provisionals so the # counted my be less. * Maybe 250k mail in IL, also very blue. * Bits & pieces elsewhere — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My best guess is that Biden eventually wins the popular vote by ~4.4% on turnout of ~158 million. This hasn't changed too much as additional ballots have been counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DouthatNYT In the Trump era, the GOP has lost the presidency by 2 points in 2016 and (eventually) 4-5 points in 2020. And for the House (ignoring my earlier caveats) it won by 1 in 2016, lost by 9 in 2018, and will lose by ~3 in 2020. That works out to losing by ~4 on average. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DouthatNYT 1) I don't think you can throw out 2018 from this conversation 2) The House popular vote is an imperfect metric for various reasons such as that it in part reflects the incumbency advantage + it can be skewed by uncontested races — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the other hand, ordinarily a party like that would lose the large majority (say, 75-80%) of elections. But 48% probably lets the GOP win elections around *half* the time instead (and a bit more than that in the Senate) given its structural advantages, which is a huge bonus. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the one hand, if the GOP will lose the popular vote in presidential & congressional elections by ~48%-52% on average—with some variation from election to election—it's fair to say that 48% is not *that* far from 50%. On the other hand... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @baseballot: ABC News has projected Biden the winner of Arizona’s 11 electoral votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Wishing a belated* congratulations to Julia Wolfe (@juruwolfe) for being promoted to Senior Editor for Data Visualization at 538! * Julia actually was promoted in the spring but it was one of those days when it felt like the world was falling apart & I never tweeted about it... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I still think something like this would be smart. A series of planned, short-term lockdowns that give people some certainty, to get us through to March when vaccines (hopefully) and warmer weather are on the way. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro In the spring, there was also a lot of public health messaging that implied—and sometimes even said outright—that if we just locked down for a couple of months, our problems would mostly be behind us, which wasn't true then but may actually be true-ish now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @dfank_BU: does texas tech recruit to this stereotype on purpose https://t.co/FDXy3aOEpX — PolitiTweet.org