Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 25, 2020

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Fri Nov 13 15:52:56 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What's left out there? * 1.6m+ mail votes in NY that are going to be VERY blue. * ~1m votes elsewhere in the Northeast (MD/MA/NJ/DC) * ~1m in CA, though that includes provisionals so the # counted my be less. * Maybe 250k mail in IL, also very blue. * Bits & pieces elsewhere — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My best guess is that Biden eventually wins the popular vote by ~4.4% on turnout of ~158 million. This hasn't changed too much as additional ballots have been counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If it's important to convey the uncertainty in polling—and it is—I struggle to see how showing probabilities *isn't* an important part of the toolkit. With smart methods for both calculating those probabilities and placing them in context, of course. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020