Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 25, 2020

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Fri Nov 13 15:49:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My best guess is that Biden eventually wins the popular vote by ~4.4% on turnout of ~158 million. This hasn't changed too much as additional ballots have been counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DouthatNYT In the Trump era, the GOP has lost the presidency by 2 points in 2016 and (eventually) 4-5 points in 2020. And for the House (ignoring my earlier caveats) it won by 1 in 2016, lost by 9 in 2018, and will lose by ~3 in 2020. That works out to losing by ~4 on average. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What's left out there? * 1.6m+ mail votes in NY that are going to be VERY blue. * ~1m votes elsewhere in the Northeast (MD/MA/NJ/DC) * ~1m in CA, though that includes provisionals so the # counted my be less. * Maybe 250k mail in IL, also very blue. * Bits & pieces elsewhere — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020