Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 24, 2020

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Fri Nov 13 15:35:03 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DouthatNYT In the Trump era, the GOP has lost the presidency by 2 points in 2016 and (eventually) 4-5 points in 2020. And for the House (ignoring my earlier caveats) it won by 1 in 2016, lost by 9 in 2018, and will lose by ~3 in 2020. That works out to losing by ~4 on average. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DouthatNYT 1) I don't think you can throw out 2018 from this conversation 2) The House popular vote is an imperfect metric for various reasons such as that it in part reflects the incumbency advantage + it can be skewed by uncontested races — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My best guess is that Biden eventually wins the popular vote by ~4.4% on turnout of ~158 million. This hasn't changed too much as additional ballots have been counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020