Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 24, 2020

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Fri Nov 13 15:30:18 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DouthatNYT 1) I don't think you can throw out 2018 from this conversation 2) The House popular vote is an imperfect metric for various reasons such as that it in part reflects the incumbency advantage + it can be skewed by uncontested races — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the other hand, ordinarily a party like that would lose the large majority (say, 75-80%) of elections. But 48% probably lets the GOP win elections around *half* the time instead (and a bit more than that in the Senate) given its structural advantages, which is a huge bonus. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DouthatNYT In the Trump era, the GOP has lost the presidency by 2 points in 2016 and (eventually) 4-5 points in 2020. And for the House (ignoring my earlier caveats) it won by 1 in 2016, lost by 9 in 2018, and will lose by ~3 in 2020. That works out to losing by ~4 on average. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020