Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 24, 2020

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Fri Nov 13 15:19:33 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the other hand, ordinarily a party like that would lose the large majority (say, 75-80%) of elections. But 48% probably lets the GOP win elections around *half* the time instead (and a bit more than that in the Senate) given its structural advantages, which is a huge bonus. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the one hand, if the GOP will lose the popular vote in presidential & congressional elections by ~48%-52% on average—with some variation from election to election—it's fair to say that 48% is not *that* far from 50%. On the other hand... — PolitiTweet.org

... one thing that 2020 should make clear is that the G.O.P., while not a majority coalition, is a *highly* competi… https://t.co/GECj3eGq9T

Posted Nov. 13, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DouthatNYT 1) I don't think you can throw out 2018 from this conversation 2) The House popular vote is an imperfect metric for various reasons such as that it in part reflects the incumbency advantage + it can be skewed by uncontested races — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020