Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Via the latest ABC/Post poll, 51% of Dems plan to vote by mail vs. just 20% of Republicans, thanks to Trump's attacks. That's unprecedented. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If 7.3% absentees were rejected in a November swing state, it could conceivably cost Dems up to 2% of statewide margin. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump’s actual strategic blunder: wasting money in states that aren’t close to the tipping point in 2020, such as NM, OH, IA or TX. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

On what planet are FL and NC “states Trump won so handily in 2016 that most analysts wouldn’t call them swing states in 2020?” Trump won them by 1.2% and 3.7% respectively in 2016. How did this story make it past @bpolitics editors? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lol...now do Obama 2012. This isn’t the problem. https://t.co/82EPINpgbT — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: Basically, the additional uncertainty introduced into an election forecast by COVID-19 falls into two buckets: 1) It me… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@gelliottmorris I appreciate how much work goes into building a model like yours and sure, I’d be happy to discuss offline. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @daveweigel: Folks, the new TRAILER is up, with a report from Detroit about the coming "squad" primary battles - Ilhan Omar and Rashida… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@AmyEGardner Not referring to intentional voter suppression. I’m referring to administrative dysfunction, delays and voter inexperience leading to ballots that, at least by existing laws/rules, would not be counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.S. a reminder to those who believe making it really hard for your vote to count is the speciality of GOP-controlled states/counties: the highest reported absentee rejection rate so far in the COVID era has been in...New York City. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I think #1 is the least likely, but #3 and #4 are quite plausible. Overall a comeback is unlikely, but far from impossible given that Trump only needs to move the needle 3-5% points nationally to get back within range of a win. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

100 days out, Trump basically needs some combo of the following... 1) shift voters' focus away from COVID 2) drive Biden's negatives way up 3) high absentee ballot rejection rates in key states 4) big advantage in Electoral College vs. popular vote ...or he's toast. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Trump were to recover to the point the EC/popular gap were to start mattering again (say, within 3-4% of Biden), it would likely be recovery w/ the kind of voters he won in ‘16 (older/non-college whites). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To me, it’s surprising that that there’s not more of an emphasis on early *in-person* voting for those at lower disease risk as a means of relieving the burden on many states’ 1) strained Election Day infrastructure and 2) strained absentee ballot regimes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden's current lead would almost certainly withstand much higher-than-usual rejection rates of absentee ballots. But, even setting aside the prospect of the Electoral College race tightening, think about how many Sen/House races are likely to come down to <2% margins. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The absentee rejection rates from pandemic primaries (4-8% in KY, 20% in NYC) are many times higher than in past elections and should be setting off alarm bells for Dems. No doubt postmarks/signatures will be intensely litigated. But Trump thrives on chaos/murkiness. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Take #NY27's June special election, for example. The Republican, Chris Jacobs (R), led 70%-28% in the Election Day count. Once absentees were counted, that lead shrunk to 51%-46% (!). This kind of partisan divide is virtually without precedent. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is why I'm not convinced the "Trump's attacks on mail voting will backfire/depress GOP turnout" narrative is accurate. Trump is currently creating a massive partisan divide between in-person (R) and absentee (D) votes. And absentees are rejected at much higher rates. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The risk of a huge shift towards absentee voting isn’t fraud that hurts the GOP. It’s administrative dysfunction & voter inexperience that leads to millions of (disproportionately Dem) ballots not counting. https://t.co/iBw805whb5 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@gelliottmorris Pretty simple: I disagree because the history of movement in prez election polls is a really small n of races that might not apply to the current political era. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@gelliottmorris I certainly don’t view the prez race as a Toss Up. This far out, I also don’t view it as a 92% race either - perhaps “Likely Biden” with a 75-80% chance. As for our congressional ratings, most districts simply aren’t as closely divided/uncertain as the country. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@gelliottmorris Right, it was so stable that all the models showing Clinton with a 90%+ chance to win based on all those stable polls turned out great. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@gelliottmorris It’s not the model specs, it’s the notion today’s polls can assure us what the race will look like in Nov. Respectfully, I disagree that it’s possible to measure the uncertainty inherent in the next three months of the race with the precision the model implies. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump’s numbers atm on Covid & race are absolutely awful. Even so, he only trails Biden by 8% in the 538 average and might only need to crawl back to within 3-4% to win the EC. Trump was within 3% as recently as *April.* After 216, we should all proceed with some caution. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump’s numbers atm on Covid & race are absolutely awful. Even so, he only trails Biden by 8% in the 538 average and might only need to crawl back to within 3-4% to win the EC. Trump was within 3% as recently as *April.* After 216, we should all proceed with some caution. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To publish a model that says Biden has a 92% chance to win based on today’s polls is a disservice, imo. If the election were today, Biden would have like a 99% chance. But is there a >8% chance the race could shift back in Trump’s direction? Absolutely. https://t.co/CLRa0cd4Xn — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Kudos to the @nytimes for giving voice to those whose lives/routines have tragically been upended by the virus. https://t.co/bPY8SyTrwz — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tonight, went out for a quiet dinner on the sidewalk patio of a neighborhood restaurant. Five minutes later, a few big DHS vehicles hastily pulled up. At first I thought they’d sent agents into Alexandria. But...it was just Chad Wolf in jeans being seated at the next table over. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But on balance, weighting whites by education might have gotten Marist closer to the true result in more states. Would it explain the entire gap? No. But would it strongly suggest weighting for education in the future? I'd say so. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now, I should also note that Marist also under-sampled non-college whites (per CPS-based estimates) in #GAGOV, where it was pretty much on target, and in #NVSEN, where it showed Rosen (D) trailing 44-46 in early Oct. (she ultimately won by 5). — PolitiTweet.org