Tweets of @Redistrict Sorted Chronologically


Showing last 5880 tweets

Fact: so far in 2018 Dems have nominated women in 50% of House races, excluding incumbents (125/252). On GOP side, 18% (33/188).

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Wed Aug 29 21:01:43 +0000 2018

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Update: so far in 2018 Dem House primaries featuring one woman, one man & no incumbent on ballot, a woman has won 6… https://t.co/37CasSmMkI

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Wed Aug 29 20:52:57 +0000 2018

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In #AZ06, Anita Malik (D) has pulled ahead in primary to take on Rep. Dave Schweikert (R). This district's worth wa… https://t.co/A9FFgp4csE

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Wed Aug 29 18:53:45 +0000 2018

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Don't miss this excellent series of on-the-ground House race reports from @McClatchyDC's @Alex_Roarty &… https://t.co/wrAI5pn1k1

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Wed Aug 29 17:26:13 +0000 2018

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Projection: attorney David Shapiro (D) wins primary to face #FL16 Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) in November. @CookPolitical rating: Lean R.

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Wed Aug 29 00:38:27 +0000 2018

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Projection: it's Donna Shalala (D) vs. Maria Elvira Salazar (R) for open #FL27 in November. @CookPolitical rating: Lean D.

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Wed Aug 29 00:33:21 +0000 2018

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Projection: Rep. Al Lawson (D) survives primary, defeating fmr. Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown (D) in safe Dem #FL05.

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Wed Aug 29 00:29:38 +0000 2018

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Projection: Mike Waltz (R) wins primary for open #FL06, will face Nancy Soderberg (D) in November. @CookPolitical rating: Likely R.

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Wed Aug 29 00:26:13 +0000 2018

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Projection: it's Andrew Gillum (D) vs. Ron DeSantis (R) for #FLGOV in November. Wow, what a turn of events.

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Wed Aug 29 00:22:26 +0000 2018

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Hard to see a path for Graham (D) at this point. Rarely have we seen fortunes turn so quickly moving from early to… https://t.co/QtkCQdVDa1

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Wed Aug 29 00:09:16 +0000 2018

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In fact, I'd rather be Gillum (D) at this point. #FLGOV

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Wed Aug 29 00:05:16 +0000 2018

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I take that back - Andrew Gillum (D) turning in a sensational Election Day performance. Not sure Graham (D)'s lead… https://t.co/FzdLbjNXNo

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Wed Aug 29 00:04:07 +0000 2018

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Projection: it's state Rep. Ross Spano (R) vs. Kristen Carlson (D) for open #FL15 in November. @CookPolitical rating: Lean R.

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Tue Aug 28 23:47:58 +0000 2018

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Projection: state Sen. Greg Steube (R) wins #FL17 primary & will easily win seat in November.

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Tue Aug 28 23:40:22 +0000 2018

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Projection: Rep. Darren Soto (D) defeats fmr. Rep. Alan Grayson (D) in #FL09.

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Tue Aug 28 23:38:56 +0000 2018

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Thread. And the bureaucratic tasks of drawing/enacting new lines, holding new filing period & printing ballots pre-… https://t.co/PtBovgQkG8

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Tue Aug 28 19:01:46 +0000 2018

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RT @galendruke: All of these except for the most recent two were drawn by Democrats and the 1993 version led to the election of one of the…

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Tue Aug 28 16:00:17 +0000 2018

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It would also be a genuine miracle if there’s a new NC map in place for November w/ 70 days to go. Between updating… https://t.co/uHj7FLYjNO

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Tue Aug 28 15:53:16 +0000 2018

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This ruling highlights the arbitrariness of partisan gerrymandering decisions absent a clear standard from SCOTUS.… https://t.co/M3sFyetp3e

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Tue Aug 28 15:41:33 +0000 2018

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Meanwhile, spotted in Juneau. Guessing this one was printed a bit more recently. #AKAL https://t.co/s7239M2ALM

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Tue Aug 28 00:39:12 +0000 2018

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Yeah, I’m probably the only person on this Alaskan cruise as stoked to spot vintage campaign signs as humpback whal… https://t.co/AlIlhsYMtw

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Tue Aug 28 00:34:04 +0000 2018

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@kkondik Thanks Kyle!

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Fri Aug 24 19:04:37 +0000 2018

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To arrive at these analyses/ratings, we personally interviewed 84 candidates and spoke with countless more campaign… https://t.co/LjxBudIwWj

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Fri Aug 24 17:44:17 +0000 2018

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RT @JMilesColeman: I’m thankful to @Redistrict, for asking me to help with this, and to @alflinn, for bringing my maps to life. It was grea…

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Fri Aug 24 17:15:00 +0000 2018

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New @CookPolitical House ratings: 70 at-risk seats (Lean or more vulnerable), including 65 GOP-held & 5 Dem-held. F… https://t.co/7By0S8baro

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Fri Aug 24 17:08:14 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: in this issue, we're also shifting our ratings in two competitive districts. #NC02 Rep. Geo… https://t.co/6ITZkWsbIg

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Fri Aug 24 17:01:14 +0000 2018

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Exciting news at @CookPolitical: our August House Overview, including our 21,965-word analysis of the 66 most compe… https://t.co/6edAdLRxUy

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Fri Aug 24 16:57:44 +0000 2018

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Our forthcoming project would also not be possible without the tireless efforts of @CookPolitical Web Editor Ally F… https://t.co/0AGYVxOVmU

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Fri Aug 24 01:26:23 +0000 2018

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@baseballot @FiveThirtyEight @InsideElections @CookPolitical @Center4Politics Could it be the @FiveThirtyEight mode… https://t.co/pz2GArZ0vB

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Fri Aug 24 00:56:14 +0000 2018

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RT @baseballot: Today's Election Update: the 25 districts where the @FiveThirtyEight forecast differs the most from @InsideElections, @Cook…

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Fri Aug 24 00:53:35 +0000 2018

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RT @HouseTalkPod: 🚨 🚨our newest episode with @Redistrict from @CookPolitical just dropped— listen here and subscribe on iTunes to be the fi…

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Thu Aug 23 23:05:46 +0000 2018

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@TheMayor3 @CookPolitical @JMilesColeman Yes, we offer a monthly subscription.

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Thu Aug 23 15:17:59 +0000 2018

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RT @HouseTalkPod: Our latest episode with @Redistrict is dropping later today—we interviewed him right before he hit the campaign trail. I’…

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Thu Aug 23 14:59:21 +0000 2018

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Excited to announce: our 21,965 word rundown of the 66 most competitive House races of 2018 is arriving to… https://t.co/bxJw8Rjj51

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Thu Aug 23 14:58:21 +0000 2018

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Another @CookPolitical rating change coming this week: #IA04 Rep. Steve King (R) moves from Solid R to Likely R.

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Wed Aug 22 16:30:36 +0000 2018

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Following last night's Alaska primary results, @CookPolitical will be moving 85-year old #AKAL Rep. Don Young (R),… https://t.co/wKnXadbBAV

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Wed Aug 22 16:27:01 +0000 2018

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After reading more of the indictment, we've moved Hunter two columns from Solid R to Lean R at @CookPolitical. To p… https://t.co/XX1Uvroff9

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Wed Aug 22 14:05:11 +0000 2018

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After reading more of the indictment, we've moved #CA50 two columns from Solid R to Lean R at @CookPolitical.… https://t.co/10G6iSNGPD

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Wed Aug 22 14:03:05 +0000 2018

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Some news: the @CookPolitical Report has an exciting project debuting later this week. It's our first-ever collabor… https://t.co/2obMH5Ei5Q

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Wed Aug 22 05:15:05 +0000 2018

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And in the House, it was a tie for 3rd between GOP Reps. Tom Marino #PA10 & Scott DesJarlais #TN04.

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Tue Aug 21 23:39:07 +0000 2018

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In case you're wondering: the third member of Congress to endorse Donald Trump in '16 was then-Sen. Jeff Sessions. https://t.co/l56mPOGNJo

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Tue Aug 21 23:36:53 +0000 2018

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There are no write-ins in CA general elections & no mechanisms for Rs to get Hunter off the ballot. Another headach… https://t.co/HknmZVr4Ly

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Tue Aug 21 23:18:27 +0000 2018

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#CA50 Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) will be moving from Solid R back to Likely R at @CookPolitical & has the potential to get more competitive.

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Tue Aug 21 22:25:30 +0000 2018

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When it rains, it pours. #CA50 https://t.co/VuXrPTVxAy

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Tue Aug 21 22:20:38 +0000 2018

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Put another way: a majority of the Senate now represents Trump-won states that make up 34% of the country's populat… https://t.co/N8s5idIoKS

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Tue Aug 21 21:58:52 +0000 2018

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#NC02 Rep. George Holding (R) has been telling GOP donors for nearly a week that his own poll showed him trailing L… https://t.co/xArvKqpNJb

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Mon Aug 20 21:49:20 +0000 2018

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If that red-state Dem dam breaks - and it *could* in November - we could be headed for a Senate that's largely acco… https://t.co/iYb5IOjpmp

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Mon Aug 20 21:16:20 +0000 2018

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For all the gerrymandering in the House, it's actually the Senate that's vastly more unrepresentative. The fact it'… https://t.co/uf0Uthekr7

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Mon Aug 20 21:05:26 +0000 2018

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And, 60% of the Senate now represents just 24% of the country’s population. This penalty for Dems is on full displa… https://t.co/kXyvJhyr5e

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Mon Aug 20 20:31:44 +0000 2018

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A long-term problem for Democrats: a majority of the Senate now represents 18% of the country’s population.

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Mon Aug 20 20:22:53 +0000 2018

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RT @NateSilver538: This is right. In our model, there a ~60% chance that Democrats *either* win 40+ seats *or* fail to take the House. http…

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Mon Aug 20 13:50:48 +0000 2018

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A lot of Dems tend to forget: this year's median competitive Senate seat gave Trump 56% in '16 & is 80% white. Me… https://t.co/lsWXtAjOd6

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Mon Aug 20 13:27:39 +0000 2018

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We've never seen this little overlap: of the 64 most competitive House races, just 14 are in states with competitiv… https://t.co/71IRDglwF5

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Mon Aug 20 13:14:46 +0000 2018

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Mars vs. Venus: in 2018, the median competitive Senate seat is 7% more pro-Trump, 4x less dense, 5% less college-ed… https://t.co/MdN79A7dQj

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Mon Aug 20 13:01:15 +0000 2018

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Fact: if every state/district's result in November were an 8% uniform swing in Dems' favor from the '16 prez result… https://t.co/62PUZRcvMm

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Mon Aug 20 12:41:52 +0000 2018

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Fact: if every state/district's result in November were an 8% uniform swing in Dems' favor from the '16 prez result… https://t.co/3AtTZv9xey

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Mon Aug 20 12:38:48 +0000 2018

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Fact: if every state/district's result in November were an 8% uniform swing in Dems' favor from the '16 prez result… https://t.co/9wSQ9LGdQv

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Mon Aug 20 12:37:37 +0000 2018

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My new op-ed for the @NYTimes: a tale of two midterm elections. https://t.co/qmCDpXyJmY

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Mon Aug 20 12:28:40 +0000 2018

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A redistricting icon. https://t.co/BCWkDP7l23

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Sat Aug 18 22:19:51 +0000 2018

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One downside of the just-released @FiveThirtyEight House model: the avalanche of hyperventilating campaign fundrais… https://t.co/ESxcxx6AYr

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Fri Aug 17 18:27:50 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: Here's what candidates for House/Senate talked about in their primary ads. Will be very interesting once we update during f…

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Fri Aug 17 16:05:00 +0000 2018

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RT @Nate_Cohn: Main thought on the FiveThrityEight model, which looks great as always: it's going to be fun to watch the scouts v. stats di…

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Thu Aug 16 19:14:30 +0000 2018

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Plus...CANTOR as the new PECOTA. Love it.

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Thu Aug 16 18:07:23 +0000 2018

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We at @CookPolitical are honored to be included in the model. It's *very* difficult to do this right and we could a… https://t.co/Y1jf6CceP2

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Thu Aug 16 18:05:20 +0000 2018

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Kudos to @NateSilver538 and the entire @FiveThirtyEight crew for incorporating *a ton* of data into this impressive… https://t.co/bbcVrrSwlv

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Thu Aug 16 18:02:36 +0000 2018

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@JMilesColeman Wow, I guess the margins in those rural counties were huge. Threw me off a bit. Thanks.

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Thu Aug 16 06:29:54 +0000 2018

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@JMilesColeman Miles are you sure? Looking at the county turnout map I don’t really see a way #WI07 could be 58%-42… https://t.co/ENF5Qwf6S7

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Thu Aug 16 06:10:37 +0000 2018

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Reason 12,345 why 2018 is weird: Trump won #WV03's open seat by *50%* & *lost* Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R)'s #FL26 by… https://t.co/6hhj1Qworw

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Thu Aug 16 01:11:57 +0000 2018

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Reason 12,345 why 2018 is weird: Trump *won* #WV03's open seat by 50% & *lost* Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R)'s #FL27 by… https://t.co/JakZ3SR46d

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Thu Aug 16 00:27:06 +0000 2018

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@benjaminstern12 @NaphiSoc #PA05 is a solid Dem seat (just as #PA14 is a solid R seat), but we keep them both "on t… https://t.co/8r6T2By5Un

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Wed Aug 15 20:04:22 +0000 2018

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Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib & Lauren Underwood might beg to differ? https://t.co/pirnIYgx3T

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Wed Aug 15 18:28:58 +0000 2018

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RT @EsotericCD: One thing I think we may discover about November is that Latino turnout isn't surging the way a lot of people expect it to.…

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Wed Aug 15 17:18:37 +0000 2018

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RT @seungminkim: “Calls and emails to (Sinema’s) campaign went unreturned for days. The campaign didn’t provide a schedule of any events du…

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Wed Aug 15 15:24:03 +0000 2018

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Only hope for House Rs to save majority? Disqualify Dem nominees w/ nuclear oppo & slug it out race-by-race startin… https://t.co/Ozw5swaAjv

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Wed Aug 15 15:00:31 +0000 2018

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@BobbyBigWheel @ppppolls maybe the polls i'm referring to aren't katko's

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Wed Aug 15 14:47:06 +0000 2018

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That leaves 12 Clinton-CD Rs in Toss Up/worse: #CA10 Denham #CA25 Knight #CA45 Walters #CA48 Rohrabacher #CO06 Cof… https://t.co/KAOaVXKxMW

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Wed Aug 15 14:31:48 +0000 2018

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That leaves 12 Clinton-CD Rs in Toss Up/worse: #CA10 Denham #CA25 Knight #CA45 Walters #CA48 Rohrabacher #CO06 Cof… https://t.co/hMB0NeFRUM

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Wed Aug 15 14:31:05 +0000 2018

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Remember, another 8/25 Clinton-CD Rs aren't running: #AZ02 McSally #CA39 Royce #CA49 Issa #FL27 Ros-Lehtinen #PA05… https://t.co/iNhYpuVzG7

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Wed Aug 15 14:27:30 +0000 2018

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@BobbyBigWheel @ppppolls not public.

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Wed Aug 15 14:20:33 +0000 2018

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@BobbyBigWheel that one's a serious outlier. also, it's @ppppolls.

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Wed Aug 15 14:04:29 +0000 2018

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Keep in mind, this is a Dem poll showing Curbelo (R) still decently ahead in #FL26. https://t.co/Q0V3QFvWCu

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Wed Aug 15 13:43:45 +0000 2018

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Of the 25 House Rs in Clinton districts, only 5 currently appear well-positioned to defy a "Blue Wave:" #CA21 Dav… https://t.co/IreXHUbBTr

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Wed Aug 15 13:41:20 +0000 2018

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RT @CookPolitical: New House ratings changes: #CA45 Lean R to Toss Up ⇦ #FL26 Toss Up to Lean R ⇨ #NJ03 Lean R to Toss Up ⇦ #NC09 Lean…

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Wed Aug 15 13:15:21 +0000 2018

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After today's changes, @CookPolitical rates 37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or more vulnerable (Lean/Likely Dem), nea… https://t.co/PwX207kpWl

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Wed Aug 15 13:07:16 +0000 2018

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Wed Aug 15 12:58:24 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: #PA10 Rep. Scott Perry (R) moves from Likely R to Lean R.

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Wed Aug 15 12:50:04 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: #NC09 OPEN (Pittenger) (R) moves from Lean R to Toss Up.

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Wed Aug 15 12:49:11 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: #NJ03 Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) moves from Lean R to Toss Up.

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Wed Aug 15 12:48:44 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: #FL26 Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) moves from Toss Up to Lean R.

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Wed Aug 15 12:47:48 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: #CA45 Rep. Mimi Walters (R) moves from Lean R to Toss Up.

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Wed Aug 15 12:47:00 +0000 2018

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Ratings change alert: stand by for 5 House moves at @CookPolitical, including 3 more GOP-held seats joining the Toss Up column.

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Wed Aug 15 12:43:07 +0000 2018

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Outside of the redrawn #PA14, I think the Iron Range #MN08 (Stauber vs. Radinovich) is probably Rs' best House pick… https://t.co/J9e7NS1bEn

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Wed Aug 15 03:01:58 +0000 2018

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There you have it, just about every major race is done/called/put to bed. Wow, an early night for once.

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Wed Aug 15 02:44:54 +0000 2018

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Projection: former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) has lost the #MNGOV GOP primary to Jeff Johnson (R).

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Wed Aug 15 02:41:38 +0000 2018

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Projection: Jim Hagedorn (R) wins GOP primary in #MN01, will face Dan Feehan (D) in November. @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up.

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Wed Aug 15 02:31:52 +0000 2018

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Projection: Joe Radinovich (D) wins DFL nomination in Iron Range's #MN08, will face Pete Stauber (R) in November.… https://t.co/t1rparKDJj

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Wed Aug 15 02:28:55 +0000 2018

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In #MNGOV, Jeff Johnson (R)'s lead over Tim Pawlenty (R) has narrowed a bit to 53%-44%, but it's just really hard t… https://t.co/NmvmjV1nM8

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Wed Aug 15 02:18:08 +0000 2018

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Projection: Randy Bryce (D) wins Dem primary, will take on Bryan Steil (R) in November for Speaker Paul Ryan's… https://t.co/ovAjte0C2I

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Wed Aug 15 02:10:44 +0000 2018

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Projection: state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) wins primary to face Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in November. @CookPolitical rating: Likely D.

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Wed Aug 15 01:53:09 +0000 2018

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Projection: Tim Walz (D) wins DFL nomination for #MNGOV.

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Wed Aug 15 01:50:51 +0000 2018

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Projection: UW system regent Bryan Steil (R) wins GOP primary for Speaker Paul Ryan's open #WI01. Looks likely to f… https://t.co/3tVNG9Xavo

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Wed Aug 15 01:44:59 +0000 2018

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Projection: Somali-American former refugee Ilhan Omar (D) wins the DFL primary for #MN05. She and #MI13's Rashida T… https://t.co/zpgcWw1mXK

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Wed Aug 15 01:41:16 +0000 2018

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Projection: Tony Evers (D) wins #WIGOV primary to face Gov. Scott Walker (R).

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Wed Aug 15 01:33:53 +0000 2018

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Tim Walz (DFL) performing impressively in #MNGOV primary so far. Meanwhile, Tim Pawlenty (R) in some real trouble vs. Jeff Johnson (R).

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Wed Aug 15 01:29:36 +0000 2018

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Projection: Jahana Hayes (D) wins #CT05 Dem primary, will face Manny Santos (R) in November. @CookPolitical rating: Solid D.

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Wed Aug 15 01:13:30 +0000 2018

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Wow, Jahana Hayes (former National Teacher of the Year in '16) certainly looking good so far in #CT05 Dem primary.

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Wed Aug 15 00:35:37 +0000 2018

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#NJ03 Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) will be moving from Lean R to Toss Up at @CookPolitical. https://t.co/d3xYtJFeqJ

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Tue Aug 14 15:01:28 +0000 2018

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Mon Aug 13 18:44:19 +0000 2018

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Latest #WA05 tallies a little less dire for Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R). The 3 Rs + 1 "Trump Populist" candidat… https://t.co/enAWgmsC6N

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Sun Aug 12 19:40:47 +0000 2018

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RT @ShaneGoldmacher: Here is the Buffalo News list of possible GOP candidates to replace Collins. It includes former NRCC and NRSC strateg…

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Sat Aug 11 18:49:24 +0000 2018

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RT @ballotpedia: New report published in conjunction with @FiveThirtyEight: What direction is the Democratic Party moving and whom are Demo…

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Fri Aug 10 17:11:20 +0000 2018

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Latest WA primary vote counts have been pretty bleak for Rs but slightly less dire than on Election Night: #WA03:… https://t.co/pkKof3C5kP

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Fri Aug 10 16:41:21 +0000 2018

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@jlupf @chelliepingree an asteroid hitting Portland

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Fri Aug 10 15:33:21 +0000 2018

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Just landed in the land of 10,000 lakes & 4 Toss Ups. Minnesotans: which should I check out (lakes and/or races)?

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Thu Aug 09 23:15:16 +0000 2018

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There are 435 House races. Need to keep track of what's in play? Here's a presentation-ready PDF of our House Ratin… https://t.co/zPEI75vBlC

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Thu Aug 09 22:19:23 +0000 2018

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Remember this #KS03 poll the next time an interested party/group tries to hype a primary poll (actual result: David… https://t.co/fcBKPiWjuW

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Thu Aug 09 21:27:54 +0000 2018

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This is among the reasons I'll never drive anything else. https://t.co/73DZvxOSCc

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Thu Aug 09 21:03:29 +0000 2018

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The wave is here. So how do you survive if you're the House GOP? Only real option: disqualify Dem opponents on a ra… https://t.co/XZFqnsjSuh

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Thu Aug 09 20:50:21 +0000 2018

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More parallels: House/Senate dissonance. Just as flawed R nominees saved Dem Senate majority in 2010, a favorable m… https://t.co/1ll2mv0c2w

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Thu Aug 09 20:40:47 +0000 2018

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Thanks to the ‘18 script writers for this messy KS recount w/ Kris Kobach playing both candidate & chief election a… https://t.co/kjZWq4YRrD

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Thu Aug 09 20:14:24 +0000 2018

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2010: Year of Angry White Senior (‘08 Obama coalition of young/non-white voters stays home) 2018: Year of Angry Fe… https://t.co/xzkKNRdR6r

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Thu Aug 09 20:07:09 +0000 2018

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@jodyavirgan Pretty wavy

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Thu Aug 09 20:01:26 +0000 2018

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I could add many more: 5) your incumbents in tough districts are calling it quits 6) voters start caring about you… https://t.co/8Zv4t2OIj7

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Thu Aug 09 19:45:44 +0000 2018

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Signs you’re in danger of a wave: 1) your voters aren’t turning out 2) your incumbents are getting outraised 3) th… https://t.co/uf5dULD4mI

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Thu Aug 09 19:26:41 +0000 2018

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@JoeySchmittPhD @FiveThirtyEight I totally sympathize with you. Alas, the PVI metric predates my time at the Cook Political Report.

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Thu Aug 09 19:10:40 +0000 2018

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This is slightly different from @FiveThirtyEight's also-useful "partisan lean," which averages parties' past *margi… https://t.co/zaH7GJYEUT

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Thu Aug 09 18:02:02 +0000 2018

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To clarify @CookPolitical PVI: it measures how much more D/R each district votes relative to the nation in the last… https://t.co/5yfTykj4ZR

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Thu Aug 09 17:56:43 +0000 2018

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@philbrown1787 @SteveSchmidtSES PVI measures how much more D/R the district votes for prez than the nation as a who… https://t.co/TchHQnJgoM

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Thu Aug 09 17:50:56 +0000 2018

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*checks 2017 gubernatorial results in #VA10* Ralph Northam (D) 55.6% Ed Gillespie (R) 43.3% https://t.co/jLhcae9tWR

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Thu Aug 09 15:47:49 +0000 2018

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Of the 62 seats we rate as "competitive" (Lean or Toss Up), Dems now only need to win 25 (40%) to win the majority.… https://t.co/ifrFg87YWH

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Thu Aug 09 15:30:07 +0000 2018

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If Dems hold all of their own seats (except #PA14) & win all 10 R seats rated Lean/Likely Dem, they'd need to win 1… https://t.co/EJdJlvMh8R

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Thu Aug 09 15:27:01 +0000 2018

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Latest @CookPolitical House ratings: 66 at-risk seats (61 R-held, 5 D-held rated Lean or worse).… https://t.co/8e2HiCOsPg

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Thu Aug 09 15:19:58 +0000 2018

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To give you an idea: if Dems were to overperform PVI by 8% in all 435 districts this November (won't happen b/c of… https://t.co/wfNIIC9fk5

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Thu Aug 09 14:59:31 +0000 2018

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Now *final:* Dems overperformed @CookPolitical PVI by an average of 8% in this cycle's 9 House specials where both… https://t.co/x9PSu5Eukw

Created

Thu Aug 09 14:56:24 +0000 2018

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Lines up pretty well w/ '17/'18 results. https://t.co/3CLbN2YAYR

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Thu Aug 09 14:12:17 +0000 2018

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But it's also why CDs w/ big urban/rural divides are especially dangerous for Rs. For example, high D energy in Por… https://t.co/wda7q4201G

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Thu Aug 09 13:48:21 +0000 2018

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That's why I'm skeptical when I hear, for example, @SteveSchmidtSES say #OH12 is evidence districts like Rep. Bob G… https://t.co/IW5xqlRGGD

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Thu Aug 09 13:48:08 +0000 2018

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But it's also why CDs w/ big urban/rural divides are especially dangerous for Rs. For example, high D energy in Por… https://t.co/jY9vIV5Q5m

Created

Thu Aug 09 13:40:58 +0000 2018

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That's why I'm skeptical when I hear @SteveSchmidtSES say #OH12 results are evidence districts like Rep. Bob Gibbs'… https://t.co/LqzfKpvCih

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Thu Aug 09 13:19:24 +0000 2018

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That's why I'm skeptical when I hear @SteveSchmidtSES say #OH12 results are evidence districts like Rep. Bob Gibbs'… https://t.co/VXF9WAxSTE

Created

Thu Aug 09 13:17:20 +0000 2018

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Pattern in #ALSEN, #PA18 & #OH12: Dems aren't necessarily making huge % strides in hardcore Trump zones. There, it'… https://t.co/l2Aoxzf55C

Created

Thu Aug 09 13:11:52 +0000 2018

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@SeanTrende @nathanlgonzales @kkondik @geoffreyvs Virgil Goode (R) became obsessed with Islam/immigration & lost… https://t.co/NpLvZHA8QA

Created

Thu Aug 09 04:45:31 +0000 2018

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2018 quirk: some of the GOP govs in best shape are in the bluest states (MD, MA, VT), while Dems are surprisingly c… https://t.co/URQJm3nJyC

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Thu Aug 09 04:27:45 +0000 2018

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This erases 11% of Balderson's lead, but margin still at 1,564 votes. We're still likely on pace for a triple digit… https://t.co/IpV7yGQa9L

Created

Wed Aug 08 23:28:08 +0000 2018

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Will be joining @ChuckTodd on @MTPDaily in a few minutes to talk #OH12 results & our latest rating changes. Tune in… https://t.co/fQQAvVECKi

Created

Wed Aug 08 20:51:40 +0000 2018

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RT @CookPolitical: New ratings changes: #KS02 Lean R to Toss Up ⇦ #KS03 Lean R to Toss Up ⇦ #OH12 Toss Up to Lean R ⇨ #OH15 Likely R to Sol…

Created

Wed Aug 08 20:20:09 +0000 2018

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Update: so far in 2018 Dem House primaries featuring one man, one woman & no incumbent on ballot, a woman has won 8… https://t.co/YGEXo0id9q

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Wed Aug 08 16:09:48 +0000 2018

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A modest winner last night: NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers. If Dems couldn't win #OH12 under ideal circumstances, ha… https://t.co/bI9nVcccwD

Created

Wed Aug 08 15:40:06 +0000 2018

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New rating changes coming this PM to @CookPolitical: #KS02: OPEN (Jenkins) (R) - Lean R to Toss Up #KS03: Yoder (R… https://t.co/AFNiZqXGns

Created

Wed Aug 08 15:20:51 +0000 2018

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1) Dems don't have to win districts as Republican as #OH12 to win the House. 2) These tailwinds aren't media-driven… https://t.co/uzX7IRYmBR

Created

Wed Aug 08 15:04:50 +0000 2018

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These should narrow Balderson (R)'s lead, but keep in mind, not all of them will be counted. O'Connor (D) would nee… https://t.co/z3LB0cmdAO

Created

Wed Aug 08 14:58:33 +0000 2018

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FWIW, #NY27 voted for Trump by 24% & has a @CookPolitical PVI of R+11. Grand Island Supervisor Nate McMurray (D) ha… https://t.co/eiA0KirkA9

Created

Wed Aug 08 13:29:02 +0000 2018

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This is true, and yet it's hard to remember when so many victories were such a bad omen for a party heading into No… https://t.co/yu5xUqY2bo

Created

Wed Aug 08 13:21:33 +0000 2018

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Yes, and more heavily metro/suburb R seats are in even greater danger. https://t.co/9DVlHAybir

Created

Wed Aug 08 13:19:49 +0000 2018

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Last night wasn't great for Bernie Sanders/Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsees; both #MIGOV Abdul El-Sayed & #KS03 B… https://t.co/EvTTRCRgpR

Created

Wed Aug 08 12:53:22 +0000 2018

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A GOP #KSGOV primary headed to a recount, w/ Kobach leading, is probably the best-case scenario for KS Dems.

Created

Wed Aug 08 12:50:55 +0000 2018

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Projection: Sharice Davids (D) wins Dem primary in #KS03, defeating Brent Welder (D). Faces off against Rep. Kevin… https://t.co/cjWqhR2cLN

Created

Wed Aug 08 12:49:34 +0000 2018

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RT @daveweigel: I thought that Whitmer's ads had made the most use of the Michigan aaaaaccent but oh my https://t.co/CHdnU44n4J

Created

Wed Aug 08 06:34:26 +0000 2018

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This weird split is still possible in #MI13, although Tlaib (D) will win the full term. Would be 2nd time in last d… https://t.co/zHyQcGmloS

Created

Wed Aug 08 05:55:03 +0000 2018

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Projection: Rashida Tlaib (D) wins #MI13 primary to replace former Rep. John Conyers (D), will become first Muslim… https://t.co/fGYihdLq2D

Created

Wed Aug 08 05:15:56 +0000 2018

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Projection: Haley Stevens (D) & Lena Epstein (R) win their primaries in #MI11, where Rep. Dave Trott (R) is retirin… https://t.co/VM1yTNbmek

Created

Wed Aug 08 05:14:08 +0000 2018

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So far tonight, in Dem House primaries featuring at least one man, one woman & no incumbent on ballot, a woman has… https://t.co/1HWv8rSZf1

Created

Wed Aug 08 05:02:01 +0000 2018

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To clarify, I meant Rs are the current incumbent party in all of these seats. Yes, Reichert (R) is retiring in #WA08.

Created

Wed Aug 08 04:53:12 +0000 2018

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Not making this up: in #WA02, Uncle Mover (R) is currently leading race to face Rep. Rick Larsen (D) in November. L… https://t.co/LsfvB0cBEg

Created

Wed Aug 08 04:44:59 +0000 2018

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Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) allies shrug off 47.5% showing by noting 2 other Rs & a "Trump Populist" party cand… https://t.co/LQc1quvqXh

Created

Wed Aug 08 04:35:19 +0000 2018

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Meanwhile, four-term Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) is losing a non-trivial 33% of the GOP primary vote to token opponents. #KS03

Created

Wed Aug 08 04:24:02 +0000 2018

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We've got a close primary brewing in #KS03, where AOC/Sanders-backed Brent Welder (D) is ahead of EMILY's List-back… https://t.co/CcBPrbbyMw

Created

Wed Aug 08 04:16:41 +0000 2018

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Projection: the Levin machine hangs on as Andy Levin (D) wins #MI09 Dem primary for his retiring father's seat over Ellen Lipton (D).

Created

Wed Aug 08 04:06:11 +0000 2018

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A Dem recruitment failure: #MI03. Rep. Justin Amash (R) sits in a CD where Trump took 52%. But nominee Cathy Albro… https://t.co/4PJLNcvXoF

Created

Wed Aug 08 04:04:19 +0000 2018

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These are pretty dismal top-two primary numbers for Rs in WA. They're at 49.7% of major party votes in #WA03, 51.7%… https://t.co/AtjL0T72rG

Created

Wed Aug 08 03:46:39 +0000 2018

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Meanwhile in #WA03, Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) leading Carolyn Long (D) just 41%-37% in first batch of returns.… https://t.co/TkB6lQCNUz

Created

Wed Aug 08 03:34:08 +0000 2018

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In 2016, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) showed softness in her base, taking just 42% in the #WA05 top-two primary… https://t.co/2GgRhtsk5h

Created

Wed Aug 08 03:32:23 +0000 2018

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There are 68 R-held House seats less Republican than #OH12, per @CookPolitical PVI, and 119 less Republican than th… https://t.co/I1QGcPJB8G

Created

Wed Aug 08 03:28:17 +0000 2018

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If anything, tonight's #OH12 result reinforces our view that Dems are substantial favorites to retake the House in November.

Created

Wed Aug 08 03:23:35 +0000 2018

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Projection: Steve Watkins (R) wins GOP primary to face Paul Davis (D) in #KS02. @CookPolitical will be moving Novem… https://t.co/PzqzLcouPD

Created

Wed Aug 08 03:18:31 +0000 2018

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You can call Troy Balderson (R) "Mr. 1%." May: defeats Leneghan (R) 29%-28% (btw, she would've lost). August: defea… https://t.co/v92rzxshwG

Created

Wed Aug 08 03:15:10 +0000 2018

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Needless to say, this is not how it works. #OH12 https://t.co/Oehm9V6wrh

Created

Wed Aug 08 03:08:52 +0000 2018

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Remember these. #OH12 https://t.co/R55j2iWrOX

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Wed Aug 08 03:00:09 +0000 2018

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In the end, Franklin Co. cast impressive 35% of the #OH12 vote & came thru big for O'Connor (D). Turnout was weak i… https://t.co/S2q66nokzl

Created

Wed Aug 08 02:55:23 +0000 2018

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Republicans deserve credit for hanging on here. But I've never seen one party go 8/9 in consecutive House special e… https://t.co/T7mXQh4pFF

Created

Wed Aug 08 02:47:33 +0000 2018

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Projection: Troy Balderson (R) defeats Danny O'Connor (D) in #OH12 special, barring a tabulation error/provisionals we don't know about.

Created

Wed Aug 08 02:43:35 +0000 2018

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RT @NateSilver538: Not-crazy scenario: -- Provisional ballots lower Balderson's margin to a tick below 0.5% -- Which (if I'm reading the la…

Created

Wed Aug 08 02:41:55 +0000 2018

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Breaking: ALL of Delaware Co. in... Troy Balderson (R) 31,742 Danny O'Connor (D) 26,854 Balderson's lead expands… https://t.co/ymBViEdv3p

Created

Wed Aug 08 02:40:49 +0000 2018

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Projection: Matt Longjohn (D) wins Dem primary to face Rep. Fred Upton (R) in #MI06. @CookPolitical November rating: Likely R.

Created

Wed Aug 08 02:33:03 +0000 2018

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UPDATE...here's where Danny O'Connor (D) stands in each #OH12 county: Delaware: 46% Franklin: 65% Licking: 39% Mar… https://t.co/0RhCj7sM68

Created

Wed Aug 08 02:29:54 +0000 2018

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To my eye, it looks like most of the remaining Delaware precincts are in Genoa Twp., which should be ok for O'Conno… https://t.co/DUj59JGwaq

Created

Wed Aug 08 02:24:18 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Balderson (R) expands lead to 1,685 votes (0.8%) w/ 152/159 Delaware precincts now in. That's *probably* the ballgame in #OH12.

Created

Wed Aug 08 02:21:46 +0000 2018

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Breaking: 26 precincts in Delaware Co. just reported, Balderson (R) retakes lead by 741 votes (0.4%). Still 28 prec… https://t.co/pb6Lx9QbV2

Created

Wed Aug 08 02:05:47 +0000 2018

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Projection: Laura Kelly (D) wins Dem primary for #KSGOV.

Created

Wed Aug 08 02:01:56 +0000 2018

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In #KS04: Rep. Ron Estes (R) wins GOP primary, defeating Ron Estes (R).

Created

Wed Aug 08 02:00:38 +0000 2018

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O'Connor (D) retakes lead by 201 votes (0.1%) w/ 12 more Franklin Co. precincts in. But that's probably not enough… https://t.co/DyB9pIjjuH

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:58:40 +0000 2018

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If Troy Balderson (R) pulls this out, he'll have Gov. Kasich (R) to thank, not POTUS. Delaware Co. coming through f… https://t.co/ftvxMEuZm2

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:53:15 +0000 2018

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Breaking: 23 more Delaware Co. precincts put Balderson (R) back in the lead by 1,031 votes (0.6%). That *may* be to… https://t.co/4Db19aO4FS

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:51:15 +0000 2018

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If Danny O'Connor (D) had Joe Manchick (G)'s 1,037 votes, it might be a different story right now. #OH12

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:45:32 +0000 2018

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Breaking: O'Connor (D) clinging to 155 vote lead w/ 172k ballots counted. Just 77 Delaware & 13 Franklin Co. precin… https://t.co/u6ZAe26ijZ

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:42:11 +0000 2018

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Franklin Co. is already at 57% of its raw 2016 turnout & there are still 13 precincts left to count there. By compa… https://t.co/NLizYQ51qc

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:39:33 +0000 2018

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Breaking: 6 more Franklin Co. precincts in. O'Connor (D) adds 1,892, Balderson (R) adds 1,054. O'Connor needed that… https://t.co/vYwwHIi6yq

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:36:36 +0000 2018

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RT @SeanTrende: @Redistrict baselines for O'Connor, vs. current totals: Delaware: 47%, at 48% (38 of 159 in) Franklin: 64%, at 67% (130/19…

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:33:01 +0000 2018

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100% of Licking Co. now in, O'Connor at 38% there (we estimated he needed 42%). But turnout is only at 49% of '16 t… https://t.co/uM050FTHq3

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:32:37 +0000 2018

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Breaking: O'Connor (D) takes 1,291 (0.8%) lead w/ 88% of Franklin Co. reporting. Delaware Co. burbs loom large, Bal… https://t.co/u3bTRp8z9w

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:27:18 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Latest batch of 46 Franklin Co. precincts gives O'Connor (D) a 9,955-6,816 margin. That might *not* be go… https://t.co/DvP92DHC3U

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:26:03 +0000 2018

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We may not know tonight. "Barnburner" an appropriate term here. #OH12

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:22:51 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Licking Co. is now 96% reported and has put Balderson (R) in the lead by 1,838 votes (1.3%). But most of… https://t.co/1kgADmkdPE

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:21:54 +0000 2018

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UPDATE: can confirm many of the 25 Delaware precincts in are heavy R rural precincts like Radnor, Porter, Harlem, C… https://t.co/kydVPVmg6P

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:20:00 +0000 2018

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First 25 Delaware Co. E-Day precincts: Balderson (R) 3,954, O'Connor (D) 2,466. We don't know where in Delaware yet… https://t.co/6aYoLu0ADy

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:14:28 +0000 2018

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Breaking: all of Morrow Co. is in. Balderson (R) wins it 70%-29%. We estimated he needed 69%, but same story as Mar… https://t.co/s8hh3UCMBl

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:11:17 +0000 2018

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Latest Franklin Co. batch: O'Connor (D) 9,104, Balderson (R) 6,196. That's actually a positive batch for Balderson.… https://t.co/lOc74hHdyF

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:08:25 +0000 2018

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Here's what we know: O'Connor (D) exceeding his targets in Franklin Co., Balderson (R) exceeding his targets in Zan… https://t.co/CEnzK9pO58

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:05:41 +0000 2018

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Dems have to like the fact O'Connor (D) is hitting 64% of the *Election Day* vote in Franklin Co. so far. He won 80… https://t.co/4bvE2L0LKA

Created

Wed Aug 08 01:02:04 +0000 2018

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The big question mark right now: Delaware County. #OH12

Created

Wed Aug 08 00:58:37 +0000 2018

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Breaking: all precincts are reporting in Marion Co. (smallest, most R county). Good news for Balderson (R): he won… https://t.co/3ovipGHdFS

Created

Wed Aug 08 00:57:02 +0000 2018

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Correction: Numbers just updated, O'Connor (D) got 31% there. BUT the real story is weak turnout among Rs there. Mo… https://t.co/qw3w3nGn7L

Created

Wed Aug 08 00:54:54 +0000 2018

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Marion Co., the smallest in #OH12, is the first to finish reporting. Balderson (R) wins it 67%-32%. O'Connor (D) ne… https://t.co/EtyaHkkvfF

Created

Wed Aug 08 00:50:42 +0000 2018

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It's hard to lose $$ betting on a widening urban/rural divide this year. #OH12

Created

Wed Aug 08 00:48:14 +0000 2018

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Projection: Bill Schuette (R) wins GOP primary for #MIGOV.

Created

Wed Aug 08 00:45:19 +0000 2018

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Projection: Gretchen Whitmer (D) wins Dem primary for #MIGOV, defeating Abdul El-Sayed (D).

Created

Wed Aug 08 00:44:06 +0000 2018

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First 16 Franklin Co. E-Day precincts: O'Connor (D) 2,533, Balderson (R) 1,324. So far, both candidates are exceedi… https://t.co/7aLJimLIw4

Created

Wed Aug 08 00:41:26 +0000 2018

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15/45 Muskingum Co. precincts in, Balderson (R) up 64%-35% there. That's on par w/ Trump & a pretty good number for… https://t.co/3rAsbe4m2S

Created

Wed Aug 08 00:38:58 +0000 2018

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First few E-Day precincts decent for O'Connor (D) in Richland Co. (Mansfield), where he only needs ~43%. But it's a… https://t.co/8JiShsWZ4A

Created

Wed Aug 08 00:31:50 +0000 2018

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First few precincts in ruby red Morrow Co. looking decent for O'Connor (D). Still extremely early. #OH12

Created

Wed Aug 08 00:24:44 +0000 2018

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This baby is...far from over. #OH12 https://t.co/AZe86NrSHI

Created

Wed Aug 08 00:19:21 +0000 2018

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Our estimates said O'Connor (D) needed ~42% in Muskingum; he'll probably end up below that based on EV. But Balders… https://t.co/8wbgAuWh03

Created

Wed Aug 08 00:14:46 +0000 2018

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Early vote a good indicator of passion: Dems passionate in Columbus burbs, Balderson's friends/neighbors passionate… https://t.co/S4fc8QrBbc

Created

Wed Aug 08 00:02:38 +0000 2018

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Franklin Co. made up 38% of the #OH12 early vote. If Franklin casts at least 1/3 of the vote once everything's in,… https://t.co/x4dyVQkOw6

Created

Tue Aug 07 23:59:45 +0000 2018

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Early vote in #OH12 is entirely in: O'Connor (D) leads Balderson (R) 62.9%-36.4%. That's more or less what we expec… https://t.co/BsphCak3zE

Created

Tue Aug 07 23:58:31 +0000 2018

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Balderson (R) wins Muskingum Co. early vote 61%-38%. That's a sign he's getting a good hometown bonus. O'Connor (D)… https://t.co/I37RPk1hYJ

Created

Tue Aug 07 23:54:19 +0000 2018

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O'Connor (D) wins Richland Co. absentees 54%-45%. Balderson (R) wins Morrow Co. absentees 55%-45%. Nothing really unexpected so far. #OH12

Created

Tue Aug 07 23:51:58 +0000 2018

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Balderson wins Licking Co. early vote 50%-49%. So far doing 31% better there than in Franklin Co. We're looking at… https://t.co/fjZR8GFgtI

Created

Tue Aug 07 23:44:52 +0000 2018

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Remember: this is O'Connor's best batch of votes in the entire CD. His % will only go down from here...needs ~64% i… https://t.co/69kYPmPW0r

Created

Tue Aug 07 23:37:44 +0000 2018

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Franklin Co. early vote in #OH12 (can't know what it means yet): Danny O'Connor 10,878 80% Troy Balderson 2,579 19%

Created

Tue Aug 07 23:34:14 +0000 2018

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RT @Nate_Cohn: The polls are closed in OH-12. Warnings: the early vote is going be really good for O'Connor. Don't read much into it. We kn…

Created

Tue Aug 07 23:32:51 +0000 2018

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Keeping Delaware Co. close is the key for O'Connor (D) tonight. But keep in mind, it's not a monolith...part high-i… https://t.co/cECfBfY3UY

Created

Tue Aug 07 23:32:39 +0000 2018

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5 mins til polls close. Watching @SteveKornacki talk Mueller/Giuliani gossip but it's obvious he's itching to be br… https://t.co/UDAudoOfpE

Created

Tue Aug 07 23:26:22 +0000 2018

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@daveweigel Sounds a bit extreme. Leave some room for benchmarks for the next 100 specials

Created

Tue Aug 07 19:13:32 +0000 2018

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Of the 65 most at-risk House seats, 7 are what we'd call Urban/Rural divides, where this high/low dynamic poses ris… https://t.co/YaAtP5ikzl

Created

Tue Aug 07 19:04:46 +0000 2018

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Both #OH12 and #PA18 highlight a danger for Rs: districts that combine high-education suburbs (where Dem energy is… https://t.co/zTA3ez7jGr

Created

Tue Aug 07 19:02:09 +0000 2018

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Fact: there are 68 R-held House districts *less* Republican than #OH12, per @CookPolitical PVI (there are also 119… https://t.co/EWgEmZZwgP

Created

Tue Aug 07 19:00:07 +0000 2018

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Huge Dem enthusiasm in TX’s professional burbs is a big threat to Rs at House & state leg levels. But relative lack… https://t.co/nyvzBLE5Wi

Created

Tue Aug 07 14:40:11 +0000 2018

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This. The big story in TX this Nov. may be Dem breakthroughs in suburbs of Dallas/Houston/Austin etc., not an O’Rou… https://t.co/JXoak4nihp

Created

Tue Aug 07 14:20:51 +0000 2018

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Keep in mind, O'Connor (D) only needs to carry 1/7 counties in #OH12 to win the district. Also keep in mind: there… https://t.co/JLnOnQPimY

Created

Tue Aug 07 12:39:31 +0000 2018

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Here's my latest estimate of what Danny O'Connor (D) needs in each #OH12 county to win today's special election (2-… https://t.co/92wtE2fFpr

Created

Tue Aug 07 12:35:14 +0000 2018

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If O'Connor (D) can't win today, though, it's really hard to see him winning in November. #OH12

Created

Tue Aug 07 12:12:06 +0000 2018

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Happy #OH12 special election day. It's a Toss Up, but a win/win for Dems. If Danny O'Connor (D) wins, terrible si… https://t.co/DVcLSBlUIp

Created

Tue Aug 07 12:03:29 +0000 2018

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Actually, Matt Morgan (D) will almost certainly appear on the fall ballot in #MI01 (I was in the district today & s… https://t.co/qIlNAMiJID

Created

Tue Aug 07 04:54:32 +0000 2018

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Actually, Matt Morgan (D) will almost certainly appear on the fall ballot in #MI01 (I was in the district today & s… https://t.co/MPPHrrEvn2

Created

Tue Aug 07 04:53:10 +0000 2018

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But hey, at least he’s sticking to verbal (not physical) assaults on special election eve. #OH12 https://t.co/k6maagwo7K

Created

Tue Aug 07 02:01:45 +0000 2018

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I'll be looking at #KY06, #VA02 and #VA07. https://t.co/eYdKZrFQba

Created

Fri Aug 03 20:28:26 +0000 2018

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Mapping Democrats' path to the majority: the 8 types of districts & 65 races that will decide House control. [my la… https://t.co/SXBzLixz9D

Created

Fri Aug 03 19:49:44 +0000 2018

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Best compliment we've ever received might be the quote in 4th paragraph of this article from June. Was actually mak… https://t.co/OnYneojaoz

Created

Fri Aug 03 19:14:00 +0000 2018

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Best compliment we've ever received might be the quote in 4th paragraph. Was actually making breakfast tacos when I… https://t.co/y2YN72zDUV

Created

Fri Aug 03 19:13:02 +0000 2018

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Yes



Yes...and maybe cover actual news voters care about. https://t.co/bzoHg9OTMo

Created

Fri Aug 03 14:35:10 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: I took the way-back time machine to '06/'10. At this point in the cycle, 1/2 to 2/3 of the seats D/R would ultimately lose…

Created

Fri Aug 03 14:15:38 +0000 2018

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@TweedEsquire Huh?

Created

Fri Aug 03 00:04:10 +0000 2018

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Remember: in Nov. '17, virtually every R in Clinton-carried NoVa/Richmond delegate districts got crushed. But Dems… https://t.co/e1Im9CwdLo

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Thu Aug 02 20:03:37 +0000 2018

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Hearing more talk about how D House gains *won't* be clustered in professional 'burbs, in part b/c they've impresse… https://t.co/OcePAS03hw

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Thu Aug 02 19:52:56 +0000 2018

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Tomorrow's TN primaries highlight the House's growing gender gap. Reps. Diane Black (R) #TN06 & Marsha Blackburn (R… https://t.co/LEayAC8NPx

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Wed Aug 01 21:10:20 +0000 2018

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RT @MonmouthPoll: OHIO CD12 SPECIAL POLL: US House Vote All potential voters - R+1 (was R+10 in June) @Troy_Balderson (R) 44 (was 43) @Dann…

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Wed Aug 01 17:10:25 +0000 2018

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@bricey16 @gelliottmorris @ForecasterEnten Following today's @MonmouthPoll, #OH12 will be staying in Toss Up at @CookPolitical.

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Wed Aug 01 15:50:37 +0000 2018

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A few positive developments for Rs in #OH12 homestretch: 1) Danny O'Connor (D) bungles Q on whether he'd vote for… https://t.co/isPc7lR7IO

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Tue Jul 31 21:15:27 +0000 2018

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Would be mildly surprised if it’s anything other than a Balderson lead within MoE. But potential for Dem intensity… https://t.co/Rwf91RbLE4

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Tue Jul 31 17:42:33 +0000 2018

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Honestly never thought I'd make @VanityFair this way. https://t.co/BzlvERF27D

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Tue Jul 31 15:14:25 +0000 2018

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The swing voters in #OH12: Trump Dems in Zanesville/Mansfield, Kasich Republicans in Franklin/Delaware counties. https://t.co/ftahstyMna

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Tue Jul 31 13:22:37 +0000 2018

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Btw, I don't think I've seen both parties try this hard to lose a VA congressional race since Chuck Robb vs. Ollie North in '94. #VA05

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Tue Jul 31 12:37:50 +0000 2018

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To be sure, regionalism still matters a bit: a rural white voter in NH is much more likely to vote Dem than one in… https://t.co/isVviLZVON

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Tue Jul 31 12:20:41 +0000 2018

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Fact check: false. Even within all of these “regions,” there’s an enormous urban/rural partisan divide.… https://t.co/o7YD9aV6mW

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Tue Jul 31 11:57:39 +0000 2018

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RT @RyanDEnos: The claims in this article are two things: 1) a textbook example of the problem of aggregation in geographic analysis. 2) a…

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Tue Jul 31 11:31:38 +0000 2018

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I’d like to point out readers of @CookPolitical first sighted Bigfoot last Friday

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Tue Jul 31 03:09:51 +0000 2018

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Ladies and gentlemen, (probably still) the frontrunner to represent #VA05 in Congress: https://t.co/DcUgimBuAe

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Tue Jul 31 03:09:49 +0000 2018

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@NateSilver538 Exactly & that's why partisan lean/PVI a better indicator than '16 alone. Here's what I'd bet: if De… https://t.co/3XkXGyOggq

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Mon Jul 30 21:53:34 +0000 2018

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Just b/c overperformance vs. Clinton has been larger in red/rural/working-class doesn't mean Dem gains won't be con… https://t.co/TgPKrowi3A

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Mon Jul 30 21:45:16 +0000 2018

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RT @IChotiner: New Q&A on the state of the race for the House, the unpredictable Senate map, and why we may need to rethink what makes an "…

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Mon Jul 30 19:32:26 +0000 2018

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When I first got to UVA in '02 & asked @LarrySabato to be my faculty advisor, I told him I couldn't wait to take ev… https://t.co/YMC5xkJeYa

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Mon Jul 30 14:31:57 +0000 2018

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@gelliottmorris It was astounding how many ppl replied to my tweet about the NYT map/70% of Americans living in "la… https://t.co/wxTnBhnfUz

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Mon Jul 30 11:50:03 +0000 2018

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Please get me off of this beat https://t.co/H5B4qyoDzN

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Mon Jul 30 03:24:45 +0000 2018

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As I was saying, welcome to the most bizarre House race in the country. #VA05 https://t.co/q9WVGDK0zb

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Mon Jul 30 03:19:49 +0000 2018

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RT @ByronYork: There has already been a wave this year, and it is the wave of 42 Republicans leaving the House, most since (at least) 1930.…

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Mon Jul 30 00:36:19 +0000 2018

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Team ‘self-sorting is the result of gerrymandering’ might be giving them a run for their $$ tbh https://t.co/wvdaiN5yP8

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Sun Jul 29 01:48:07 +0000 2018

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And which party is living in more of a bubble? Notice that it depends on what threshold you set. At "most neighbors… https://t.co/K7QKzN3pjQ

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Sat Jul 28 19:52:53 +0000 2018

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The growth of the "bubbles" is even more dramatic at the extremes: in 2016, 39% of Trump voters & 42% of Clinton vo… https://t.co/fdmY0jsYDU

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Sat Jul 28 19:49:10 +0000 2018

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The rise of the bubble is even more dramatic at the extremes: in 2016, 42% of Clinton's voters & 39% of Trump's liv… https://t.co/uk3mgDRip5

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Sat Jul 28 19:47:01 +0000 2018

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@mike_klain The numbers from prior years would illustrate this even more drastically, but sadly I don’t have 100% c… https://t.co/2QCORysXb1

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Sat Jul 28 19:06:56 +0000 2018

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By my math: in 2016, 72% of Trump voters & 66% of Clinton voters lived in precincts where most of their neighbors v… https://t.co/WaVjmOo29I

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Sat Jul 28 18:24:09 +0000 2018

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Not sure how many people fully appreciate how rapidly, recently & profoundly this neighborhood-level polarization h… https://t.co/0g1xPW6gKS

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Sat Jul 28 15:13:08 +0000 2018

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RT @BrendanNyhan: The education gradient in 2016 at the precinct level is staggering https://t.co/rTP6ntS5Ud https://t.co/bYKeVy6mAM

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Sat Jul 28 14:53:23 +0000 2018

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It's simple, folks: red neighborhoods are getting redder & blue neighborhoods are getting bluer. In 2016, it accele… https://t.co/0DkE7SxdEj

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Sat Jul 28 14:04:09 +0000 2018

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It doesn't matter which map format you prefer (dot, cartogram, etc.). The essential takeaway - the disappearance of… https://t.co/dB2Bb66Rdl

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Sat Jul 28 13:55:24 +0000 2018

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And no, this rapid geopolarization isn't attributable to gerrymandering (though it's helped make partisan gerrymand… https://t.co/EYOiMPgmsb

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Sat Jul 28 06:31:30 +0000 2018

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Just finished calculating: in 2016, 70% of U.S. voters lived in "landslide precincts" (20%+ margin either way), up… https://t.co/aj01wimqM9

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Sat Jul 28 06:16:02 +0000 2018

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RT @jbarro: Hillary won precincts with median income over $250k by 27 points. Obama lost them by 12 four years earlier. I think this is why…

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Fri Jul 27 20:06:20 +0000 2018

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To be clear, 42 GOP open/vacant seats is a record since *at least* 1928, b/c my Vital Stats data only goes back to… https://t.co/GiJHMddSy1

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Fri Jul 27 17:27:30 +0000 2018

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Having trouble wrapping my mind around this new #OH12 poll. https://t.co/TDNkflfi24

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Fri Jul 27 17:00:17 +0000 2018

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Fact: as of this week, Dems have nominated women in 85/179 (47%) of '18 House races (excluding Dem incumbents). On GOP side, 24/139 (17%).

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Fri Jul 27 16:01:05 +0000 2018

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@ddale8 working on it

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Fri Jul 27 14:50:56 +0000 2018

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@elsenorrocket not really, because we're still comparing apples to apples (districts the incumbent president lost,… https://t.co/3CfJfsKDmB

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Fri Jul 27 14:28:10 +0000 2018

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To NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers's credit, only one additional R has retired since Ryan did on 4/11: #VA05 Rep. Tom… https://t.co/5ZDYQ9I9F0

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Fri Jul 27 14:14:05 +0000 2018

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Another GOP concern: $$$. In 20/42 *R* open seats, the leading D outraised the leading R between April & June, incl… https://t.co/FcfdLE010l

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Fri Jul 27 14:05:37 +0000 2018

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Breakdown of the 42 GOP open/vacant seats in @CookPolitical ratings: 19 Solid R 4 Likely R 7 Lean R 4 Toss Up 5 Le… https://t.co/U6eBoHRkeF

Created

Fri Jul 27 13:26:47 +0000 2018

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RT @axios: In a special preview for Axios readers, @Redistrict of Cook Political Report unpacks the GOP's daunting math: "With 102 days to…

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Fri Jul 27 13:22:47 +0000 2018

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And BTW, this record-shattering 42-seat House GOP exodus is one of the biggest reasons @CookPolitical continues to… https://t.co/NTL8Ubo3Ek

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Fri Jul 27 13:11:17 +0000 2018

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Fact: since '92, the president's party has batted *zero* for 23 trying to defend open House seats the president fai… https://t.co/8hyL8k1QB3

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Fri Jul 27 13:05:12 +0000 2018

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RT @CookPolitical: Is there anything Republicans can do to hold onto their suburban districts in the year of the angry college-educated fem…

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Fri Jul 27 13:04:11 +0000 2018

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Rating change alert: two GOP open seats slightly less safe at @CookPolitical. #FL15 OPEN (Ross) - Likely R to Lean… https://t.co/s3EDLJJKUq

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Fri Jul 27 12:49:47 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: our 9,400 word rundown of all 42 open GOP House seats (maybe an all-time record?) is live.… https://t.co/4X7WFleFYi

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Fri Jul 27 12:43:35 +0000 2018

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My 9,400 word rundown of the 42 open GOP House seats (including two rating changes!) goes live at @CookPolitical in… https://t.co/9s2gQcdkFQ

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Fri Jul 27 08:21:06 +0000 2018

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My 9,400 rundown of the 42 open GOP House seats (including two rating changes) goes live at @CookPolitical in a few… https://t.co/fg9EkaFNVC

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Fri Jul 27 08:19:13 +0000 2018

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I'll admit: one of my nerd dreams has long been to take a year off & do anthropological studies of precincts w/ weird voting patterns.

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Thu Jul 26 17:06:25 +0000 2018

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My favorite weird "voter islands:" the strangely Dem mountain retreat of Murray, AR & the strangely GOP "Forbidden… https://t.co/OrJ8mNOt6I

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Thu Jul 26 17:04:12 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: For Republicans who argue that "Abolish ICE" and A. Ocasio-Cortez is face of Dem party, do you think that Steve King and "i…

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Thu Jul 26 04:32:53 +0000 2018

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Thu Jul 26 03:59:42 +0000 2018

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@CillizzaCNN Where to even begin...let's discuss in person sometime.

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Thu Jul 26 03:57:12 +0000 2018

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Hint: you employ real journalists. Do better.

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Wed Jul 25 20:48:41 +0000 2018

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In '16, cable networks like this one helped contribute $5 billion in free media to Donald Trump. Today, their click… https://t.co/ehwZ3IY2j1

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Wed Jul 25 20:40:57 +0000 2018

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Many quant-only models won't tell you that #CA21 Rep. David Valadao (R) is the clear favorite in a D+5 seat, or tha… https://t.co/26FPlHyMKk

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Wed Jul 25 13:55:35 +0000 2018

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Bottom line: if you really want to track 2018, do yourself a favor and go *beyond* fancy models/big data. Get to kn… https://t.co/e1EpOkY814

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Wed Jul 25 13:32:42 +0000 2018

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Do we have blind spots? Of course. Most of us missed @Ocasio2018, in part b/c of past trends in #NY14 (Cuomo/Clinto… https://t.co/gtxEZxS6ke

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Wed Jul 25 13:18:57 +0000 2018

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Sure, not all of these are going to matter in November. But candidates' life stories often turn into great ads & mo… https://t.co/Cc1GbDn4z7

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Wed Jul 25 13:10:57 +0000 2018

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Today we're scheduled to sit down w/ our 82nd & 83rd House candidates of the cycle. The @InsideElections crew has l… https://t.co/8EFPNcZg1k

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Wed Jul 25 13:07:11 +0000 2018

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In many House races, public polling is sparse & many important factors are difficult to quantify. That's why accura… https://t.co/mrhZUtpMDK

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Wed Jul 25 12:44:19 +0000 2018

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Midterm PSA: Beware quant-only models that attempt to project individual House races. They're not going to tell you… https://t.co/o9dRLvce43

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Wed Jul 25 12:37:30 +0000 2018

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RT @ForecasterEnten: If you were to model out (using data collected by James Campbell through 1984-2008 and then by me from 2010-2016), the…

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Wed Jul 25 04:54:24 +0000 2018

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Biggest surprise in GA tonight? How many of its counties begin with "T"

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Wed Jul 25 04:12:19 +0000 2018

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Biggest surprise in GA tonight? How many of its counties begin with T (sorry, random).

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Wed Jul 25 04:11:47 +0000 2018

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UPDATE: so far in '18 Dem House primaries featuring at least one woman, one man & no incumbent, women have won in 7… https://t.co/Ypxs1CdsYJ

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Wed Jul 25 03:17:56 +0000 2018

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It's a done deal: Lucy McBath (D) #GA06 & Carolyn Bordeaux (D) #GA07 have won their runoffs. @CookPolitical ratings… https://t.co/9KhW4MlIkX

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Wed Jul 25 03:03:39 +0000 2018

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#GA06 looks like McBath's to lose right now. #GA07 a closer call.

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Wed Jul 25 01:56:40 +0000 2018

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In sync? Both women in tonight's Dem runoffs, Lucy McBath in #GA06 & Carolyn Bordeaux in #GA07, just pulled into th… https://t.co/04q2bGl1h3

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Wed Jul 25 01:49:49 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: If Ds win all 10, means they need to win just over 50% of toss-ups or 25% of Toss-up/lean R to take bare majority. https://…

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Tue Jul 24 21:15:07 +0000 2018

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The two most vulnerable incumbents in the country: #PA17 Rep. Keith Rothfus (R) & #VA10 Rep. Barbara Comstock (R).… https://t.co/dFAK6Na7ok

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Tue Jul 24 20:04:07 +0000 2018

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There are now 10 R-held seats @CookPolitical rates as Lean/Likely Dem after #PA17 move. Ironically, only Dem-held s… https://t.co/gJfUd3WZYl

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Tue Jul 24 19:59:51 +0000 2018

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New lines & Lamb name ID just brutal for Rothfus. https://t.co/KRCjqJ8aT3

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Tue Jul 24 15:59:05 +0000 2018

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After today’s #PA17 move, we don’t rate *any* PA races as Toss Ups. Dems currently favored to pick up at least 4 se… https://t.co/leLC0zYcUA

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Tue Jul 24 15:52:11 +0000 2018

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RT @JMilesColeman: [email protected]/@CookPolitical moving #PA17 to Leans Dem. Reps Conor Lamb (D) & Keith Rothfus (R) are running against each…

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Tue Jul 24 15:45:56 +0000 2018

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And there it is. #PA17 https://t.co/XBp84BKWqT

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Tue Jul 24 15:09:10 +0000 2018

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Today, @CookPolitical will be changing our rating in #PA17's clash between Reps. Conor Lamb (D) & Keith Rothfus (R)… https://t.co/0hIu0x3LkV

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Tue Jul 24 14:44:08 +0000 2018

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RT @NateSilver538: 1. Since I'm up late, an *extremely* nerdy thread... The aggregate popular vote for the U.S. House—which is basically w…

Created

Tue Jul 24 12:20:15 +0000 2018

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To bookmark: here's what I'd estimate Danny O'Connor (D) needs in each #OH12 county to win the 8/7 special election… https://t.co/1PiKopt30P

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Mon Jul 23 19:13:57 +0000 2018

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Franklin Co. is just 1/7 counties in #OH12 (and just 28% of the district's population), but by our math it's the *o… https://t.co/SGBZUEes5N

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Mon Jul 23 19:10:34 +0000 2018

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Reminder: we're 15 days away from the #OH12 special election. Here's why @CookPolitical rates it a Toss Up:… https://t.co/pb7wB3ibvN

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Mon Jul 23 19:05:40 +0000 2018

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My expectation here would be a Conor Lamb (D) lead, given new lines & more recent ads/press. I’d be more surprised… https://t.co/8nUGFBs764

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Mon Jul 23 17:19:36 +0000 2018

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The record of Rs who have given up their House seats to run in contested statewide primaries so far? Just 4/8 (50%)… https://t.co/LdmUel9zkf

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Mon Jul 23 13:49:17 +0000 2018

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New for @CookPolitical subscribers: our 5,057 word analysis of all 22 open/vacant Dem House seats is live. Next wee… https://t.co/HWha4KCxqo

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Fri Jul 20 15:04:45 +0000 2018

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Noteworthy: Hawaii's state teachers union endorsed challenger Sherry Campagna over #HI02 Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D) for… https://t.co/WBQMCPUDSP

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Fri Jul 20 02:22:18 +0000 2018

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RT @EliseStefanik: Title is Election Security Coordinator & it is critical as we head towards the midterms. Love your Twitter feed @Redistr…

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Thu Jul 19 23:07:40 +0000 2018

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Please don't tell me this is the job title. https://t.co/sZZDQCH75v

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Thu Jul 19 21:53:29 +0000 2018

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And this is a laughing matter? https://t.co/LetT7L7U6R

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Thu Jul 19 20:41:50 +0000 2018

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RT @Nate_Cohn: Maybe the biggest thing to know about the race for the House: an '06/'10-like "blue wave" might not result in an easy Dem wi…

Created

Thu Jul 19 14:55:37 +0000 2018

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RT @CreighDeeds: Lawmaker, nearly killed by son, works to improve mental health care in Virginia https://t.co/oZKtQLziWa via @jonburkettcbs6

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Thu Jul 19 04:23:00 +0000 2018

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@BillRic76452536 It also borders Nebraska and Missouri...I'd call that substantially rural

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Thu Jul 19 02:10:49 +0000 2018

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In fact, a big reason many '18 Dem candidates don't feel a strong allegiance to Pelosi/Dem hierarchy: antipathy to… https://t.co/6nHccbVUhF

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Wed Jul 18 22:15:40 +0000 2018

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Doesn't take a deep dive into '18 House FEC reports to realize: Donald Trump is the best fundraiser Dem candidates have ever had.

Created

Wed Jul 18 22:10:45 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: we've updated our Risk Factors for House GOP Incumbents chart w/ the latest FEC data. Find o… https://t.co/c0iRMAGPJq

Created

Wed Jul 18 21:56:37 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: fresh batch of FEC data points to severe risk for House GOP. https://t.co/5VQtE8hpSY

Created

Wed Jul 18 21:49:48 +0000 2018

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Why is the #OH12 special in Toss Up at @CookPolitical: Dems have outperformed our PVI by an average of 8% in the pa… https://t.co/vtebGK1GNf

Created

Wed Jul 18 21:40:42 +0000 2018

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RT @JoshuaGreen: Here's a rundown of where all the tariffs hit and who might be affected: https://t.co/Rc3vNDcQg0 https://t.co/5z5yTPiDUr

Created

Wed Jul 18 21:13:36 +0000 2018

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A few weeks ago I was skeptical Trump tariffs would cost Rs a lot of votes in Midwest/farm CDs. After visiting with… https://t.co/WcZ5n79zuJ

Created

Wed Jul 18 20:58:35 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: Des Moines Rep. David Young (R) moves from Lean R to Toss Up. #IA03 https://t.co/NJNAL8bMLn

Created

Wed Jul 18 20:46:45 +0000 2018

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And to be clear, the GOP's 21% lead in returned ballots in #AZ08 didn't mean Lesko (R) was going to win by 21%. But… https://t.co/VExTgS5OMJ

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Wed Jul 18 15:05:08 +0000 2018

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Early vote data in April's #AZ08 special was pretty meaningful because it was such an overwhelming share of overall… https://t.co/TVVc4Ox02e

Created

Wed Jul 18 14:42:31 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: And Rs had more obviously vulnerable Ds to go after - and a much bigger playing field overall. These numbers should worry t…

Created

Wed Jul 18 02:06:53 +0000 2018

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RT @NateSilver538: ESOTERIC TWEET ALERT: It's become fashionable to think that members of Congress no longer pay a price for ideological ex…

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Tue Jul 17 19:51:50 +0000 2018

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And it's not just TX. https://t.co/8gZIQygy6D

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Tue Jul 17 14:01:29 +0000 2018

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An interesting nugget in FEC filings: #IA04 Rep. Steve King (R) has just $117k cash on hand, less than half his cha… https://t.co/6XtAc89dC3

Created

Mon Jul 16 22:57:18 +0000 2018

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RT @POLITICO_Steve: This @SenJohnMcCain statement is extraordinary for a senator to make of any president, let alone one in his own party.…

Created

Mon Jul 16 18:34:17 +0000 2018

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RT @allymutnick: [email protected] crunched the Q2 fundraising stats overnight. We found FIFTY-FOUR GOP incumbents who were outraised by a Democr…

Created

Mon Jul 16 16:52:25 +0000 2018

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To some extent, the focus on the "Blue Wave" has overshadowed an equally important 2018 trend: the slow, steady pur… https://t.co/n9zd0JwuKT

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Mon Jul 16 16:16:49 +0000 2018

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Most Republican members are willing to admit POTUS doesn't operate in reality, but know they're doomed in their nex… https://t.co/rpPfzj36Ou

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Mon Jul 16 16:10:25 +0000 2018

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Reminder: the Electoral College didn't/doesn't favor Democrats. https://t.co/OcdlFxPpyy

Created

Mon Jul 16 15:44:10 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: My neck is still sore from whiplash in watching Rs who attacked Obama as ‘leading from behind’ and not being tough enough o…

Created

Mon Jul 16 14:36:14 +0000 2018

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RT @TexasTribAbby: It looks like we have our first confirmed Texas US House challenger-outraises-incumbent of Q2: Pete Sessions (R) raised…

Created

Sat Jul 14 18:37:34 +0000 2018

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@TiffanyBond There are literally thousands of candidates across the country who have worked really hard to get on t… https://t.co/Rc1PZ1g6Ay

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Sat Jul 14 04:03:33 +0000 2018

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This week, @Amyewalter & I sat down w/ 12 top Democratic House candidates for an hour each. Here were our takeaways… https://t.co/U0O6WboyNP

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Fri Jul 13 15:17:08 +0000 2018

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A few ways to look at it: if the 26 Toss Ups break evenly, Dems would net 19 seats, 4 short of majority. But if the… https://t.co/CsDBW7DgZQ

Created

Fri Jul 13 14:18:15 +0000 2018

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Keep in mind, the 60 competitive seats in Lean/Toss Up don't include three R seats Dems are near-locks to pick up (… https://t.co/fFqkBAKAx1

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Fri Jul 13 14:13:54 +0000 2018

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Keep in mind, the 60 competitive seats in Lean/TossUp don't include three R seats Dems are near-locks to pick up (… https://t.co/D1dY7kdPR8

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Fri Jul 13 14:13:40 +0000 2018

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Three more @CookPolitical House changes today: #FL06: OPEN (DeSantis) (R) - Solid R to Likely R #FL16: Rep. Vern B… https://t.co/bT75pDco8L

Created

Fri Jul 13 14:07:44 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: #MI08 Rep. Mike Bishop (R) moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up. Why Detroit burbs are a ke… https://t.co/AGrhr8Kz9M

Created

Fri Jul 13 13:52:29 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: #ME02 hasn't ousted an incumbent in 102 years, but Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) moves from Lean R… https://t.co/ste7j4WqrX

Created

Fri Jul 13 13:47:05 +0000 2018

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Stand by for 5 more House ratings changes at @CookPolitical.

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Fri Jul 13 13:45:14 +0000 2018

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TX could be big for Dems in ‘18. But the ratio of Beto’s $$/chance of winning seems way out of proportion vs. Dem H… https://t.co/cMJzhWqmVs

Created

Thu Jul 12 17:24:10 +0000 2018

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Very much looking forward to this. https://t.co/7oAkJ3wv0N

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Wed Jul 11 23:53:05 +0000 2018

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Just wild numbers vs. past cycles here... https://t.co/24Znlnl0nr

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Wed Jul 11 15:15:34 +0000 2018

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RT @CookPolitical: New ratings changes today: #AZ01 Lean D to Likely D #AZ09 Likely D to Solid D #CO03 Solid R to Likely R #CT05 Likely…

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Tue Jul 10 15:46:09 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: Rating changes in 10 House races, mostly in Democrats’ direction. Outlook: Dem gain of 20-35… https://t.co/J09pD6bHE1

Created

Tue Jul 10 13:47:27 +0000 2018

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RT @gmoomaw: Taylor: “I don’t give a s--- about Corey Stewart. No one else does either except for Democrats who are trying to target me.” h…

Created

Sat Jul 07 15:39:30 +0000 2018

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Btw, DC Dems’ love affair w/ a handful of deeply flawed self-funders is mind-boggling in a year when Trump is raisi… https://t.co/XoEcqKdDiM

Created

Fri Jul 06 19:42:28 +0000 2018

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34 years, get it right https://t.co/tYWFFmm429

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Fri Jul 06 18:35:58 +0000 2018

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Here are the latest @CookPolitical House ratings w/ today's changes in #PA01 & #VA07. We see 62 highly at-risk seat… https://t.co/3tdMpqmeIL

Created

Fri Jul 06 15:52:24 +0000 2018

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Emailed a few mins ago by a pro-Wallace strategist: "I think you are majorly under-valuing how much money he will s… https://t.co/XiJeyhhnl7

Created

Fri Jul 06 14:37:26 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: Freedom Caucus Rep. Dave Brat (R)'s fate in November may rest with...Eric Cantor's old voter… https://t.co/ZxM6OKE5lo

Created

Fri Jul 06 13:20:22 +0000 2018

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Yes, #PA01 voted for Hillary Clinton by 2%. But Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) has endorsements from Gabby Giffords & t… https://t.co/wY03ctojMB

Created

Fri Jul 06 12:54:54 +0000 2018

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#PA01 proves why 1) good candidates matter as much as good maps and 2) purely quant models can't always predict Hou… https://t.co/oo2AIk38ae

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Fri Jul 06 12:51:28 +0000 2018

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In Bucks County's #PA01, multi-millionaire nominee Scott Wallace (D) may have problems $$ & a favorable new map can… https://t.co/2OVzMqM18F

Created

Fri Jul 06 12:43:47 +0000 2018

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UPDATED w/ latest results: so far in '18, female candidates are overperforming by an average of 12.2% in Dem primar… https://t.co/53a0ppHCTS

Created

Tue Jul 03 21:51:50 +0000 2018

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Right now, Dems are all kinds of excited about what taking over the House (I'd put odds at ~60%) would mean for gov… https://t.co/PKDkoQSuDg

Created

Tue Jul 03 17:10:11 +0000 2018

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For those insistent that @Ocasio2018's triumph was all about progressivism vs. corporatism (and less about demograp… https://t.co/v2oDJ0HuEj

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Tue Jul 03 12:54:08 +0000 2018

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This 65% on the Dem side is actually down from 71% before the 6/26 primaries. While Ocasio-Cortez dominated the hea… https://t.co/ljAxEsWggh

Created

Mon Jul 02 23:23:19 +0000 2018

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UPDATE: so far in 2018 Dem House primaries featuring at least one woman, one man & no incumbent, women have been th… https://t.co/NhmjJmlp1b

Created

Mon Jul 02 23:19:51 +0000 2018

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That Dems didn't overperform '16 by much (if at all) in Saturday's #TX27 special isn't all that surprising. Which… https://t.co/CZW5HePJTD

Created

Mon Jul 02 22:56:10 +0000 2018

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Another aspect getting less attention than it should: vast majority of critical '18 races taking place in swingy/su… https://t.co/LMQYF3EXLg

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Mon Jul 02 21:14:06 +0000 2018

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Ironically, I think the #NY14 result says much more about the kind of profile that would excite the Dem base in '20… https://t.co/MTivXPvOqd

Created

Mon Jul 02 21:07:01 +0000 2018

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Besides, in convos w/ labor Dems in Howard Co., IA (only place that voted for Obama & Trump by 20%+, 98% white), ba… https://t.co/Qm3fgKtFxE

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Mon Jul 02 21:01:15 +0000 2018

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Lots of warnings Dems risk falling off a socialist cliff. But let's say @Ocasio2018 were eligible to run in '20. Wo… https://t.co/dBOyKTZIc2

Created

Mon Jul 02 20:51:17 +0000 2018

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RT @notlarrysabato: Well if this is the worst that the NY press can come up with after a week she is probably going to become President aro…

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Mon Jul 02 17:31:34 +0000 2018

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@ForecasterEnten But that wouldn't be any fun...

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Mon Jul 02 15:48:29 +0000 2018

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IMHO, the viral & accelerated nature of today's politics means there's a real chance the 2020 Dem nominee will be s… https://t.co/MMC3GXzdqs

Created

Mon Jul 02 05:57:55 +0000 2018

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After watching @Ocasio2018 become her party's biggest star overnight, it's plain to see what Dems desperately crave… https://t.co/pI5BDKznBe

Created

Mon Jul 02 05:48:37 +0000 2018

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RT @mcimaps: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ousted longtime Incumbent/Queen Democratic Party head Joseph Crowley in the #NY14. The race did not…

Created

Mon Jul 02 05:22:33 +0000 2018

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RT @NateSilver538: It seems like Ocasio-Cortez received a pretty optimal amount of media attention (from her standpoint). Enough that highl…

Created

Wed Jun 27 02:37:44 +0000 2018

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RT @jdavidgoodman: Now @JoeCrowleyNY is playing guitar. He dedicated the first song to @Ocasio2018 — “Born to Run” @ https://t.co/U3sx6mth90

Created

Wed Jun 27 02:27:36 +0000 2018

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Quite a few new future members to get to know tonight: #CO02: Joe Neguse (D) #MS03: Michael Guest (R) #NY14: Alexa… https://t.co/gXxhxIYRR8

Created

Wed Jun 27 02:21:15 +0000 2018

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Tea Party '14, meet Resistance '18. https://t.co/vZ4N62ilhv

Created

Wed Jun 27 02:10:05 +0000 2018

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Meanwhile in #NY24, DCCC-backed Juanita Perez Williams (D) losing to professor Dana Balter (D). Rep. John Katko (R) in Likely R.

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Wed Jun 27 02:06:43 +0000 2018

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RT @ClareMalone: I think her face says it all. https://t.co/BNufI5uQ6h

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Wed Jun 27 02:04:45 +0000 2018

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Incredibly, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)'s #NY14 margin is larger in Queens, where Crowley is Dem chair, than the Bronx.

Created

Wed Jun 27 02:01:33 +0000 2018

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The conversation about the next generation of House Dem leadership starts anew tonight.

Created

Wed Jun 27 01:46:48 +0000 2018

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For years, Rep. Joe Crowley (D) cruised without opposition while #NY14 demographics/lines shifted. Tonight, underly… https://t.co/IXCvDzSgO0

Created

Wed Jun 27 01:45:08 +0000 2018

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RT @ForecasterEnten: Folks, this could be THE upset in the making this primary season. Joe Crowley is down 16 points with 43% of the vote i…

Created

Wed Jun 27 01:36:40 +0000 2018

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It’s been hard to see Comstock’s path to reelection in #VA10 for a while now. @CookPolitical rating: Lean D. https://t.co/EMo5PtVWET

Created

Wed Jun 27 00:14:56 +0000 2018

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Good NY primary thread -> https://t.co/k7CwawmvQ2

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Tue Jun 26 17:14:06 +0000 2018

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Final #CA48 result: Harley Rouda (D) advances vs. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R), edging out Hans Keirstead (D) by 126 v… https://t.co/rFaLYP1mgC

Created

Sun Jun 24 15:17:45 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: our latest House ratings following today's moves in #TX31 & #WV03. https://t.co/wcfAZ8REga https://t.co/LYJ3ELTeaw

Created

Wed Jun 20 21:54:03 +0000 2018

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Also new at @CookPolitical: it's a long shot for Dems, but Rep. John Carter (R)'s race vs. MJ Hegar (D) in #TX31 mo… https://t.co/mocsF1SWFQ

Created

Wed Jun 20 21:48:39 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: #WV03 moves from Likely R to Lean R. Why a district President Trump won by 50% is at risk fo… https://t.co/07y4JnHcEE

Created

Wed Jun 20 21:45:54 +0000 2018

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RT @BresPolitico: No one should underrate how serious Nancy Pelosi’s problems are if Democrats retake the House https://t.co/ThK2DS4Lan

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Wed Jun 20 17:27:55 +0000 2018

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And there it is. @CookPolitical will be moving #WV03, a district Trump won by 50%, from Likely R to Lean R this wee… https://t.co/iwG6mV74cx

Created

Wed Jun 20 17:11:27 +0000 2018

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Here’s a House R who’s doing better than one might expect given national enviro/fundamentals of district. https://t.co/i7JkxfqQJV

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Wed Jun 20 12:57:49 +0000 2018

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Republicans I talk to are pretty nervous about what this #WV03 poll might show in a CD Trump won by 50% (but still… https://t.co/PgwsPMwv7Z

Created

Wed Jun 20 12:15:24 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Harley Rouda (D) extends lead over Hans Keirstead (D) from 40 to 69 votes in today's count. That *might* be the ballgame. #CA48

Created

Wed Jun 20 00:05:05 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Harley Rouda (D) takes 40 vote lead over Hans Keirstead (D) in latest #CA48 count.

Created

Tue Jun 19 00:31:31 +0000 2018

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RT @Nate_Cohn: Interestingly, VA-10 and KY-6 are #1 and #3 for expected Democratic turnout edge, if turnout roughly follows the pattern fro…

Created

Mon Jun 18 21:50:49 +0000 2018

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RT @thomaskaplan: Noteworthy: @RepSteveStivers, head of House GOP campaign arm, says he'll ask the Trump administration "to stop needlessly…

Created

Mon Jun 18 21:16:47 +0000 2018

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Here are the latest @CookPolitical House ratings following #KY06 & #VA10 moves. 55 GOP-held seats are vulnerable (L… https://t.co/ngVRUEFhza

Created

Mon Jun 18 20:57:55 +0000 2018

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RT @galendruke: Extreme partisan gerrymandering will end the day the way it began: in legal purgatory. https://t.co/PbgtmnmMs5

Created

Mon Jun 18 20:22:56 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: in #KY06, a district Trump won by 15%, Rep. Andy Barr (R)'s race vs. Amy McGrath (D) moves f… https://t.co/cIqjAXUZCW

Created

Mon Jun 18 19:54:21 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: following the #VA10 primary, Rep. Barbara Comstock (R)'s race vs. state Sen. Jennifer Wexton… https://t.co/Yo5p3aqlfN

Created

Mon Jun 18 19:50:12 +0000 2018

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RT @galendruke: The #gerrymandering opinions are out and it’s looking like #3 in the paths we laid out here: https://t.co/7AYd4Sauvw

Created

Mon Jun 18 14:45:52 +0000 2018

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And...punt. #gerrymandering

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Mon Jun 18 14:45:37 +0000 2018

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To clarify, source says about 80% of the ~4.5k outstanding in #CA48 are provisionals (which favor Rouda) and 20% ar… https://t.co/XmJKirCBVT

Created

Mon Jun 18 04:12:54 +0000 2018

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Now hearing most #CA48 provisionals have already been counted b/c OC registrar is counting #CA48 first. About 4.5k… https://t.co/EHHvVZuQEH

Created

Mon Jun 18 03:55:58 +0000 2018

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As expected, provisionals coming in big for Harley Rouda (D) in #CA48. With 1/5 of them counted, he’s cut Hans Keir… https://t.co/p2rdpx2ZKx

Created

Sun Jun 17 21:25:42 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: #TX32 Rep. Pete Sessions (R) moves from Lean R to Toss Up. Why the House Rules chair/former… https://t.co/qRA7Ch9gvi

Created

Fri Jun 15 14:59:53 +0000 2018

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RT @jennifereduffy: A few changes in Governors ratings https://t.co/ztljb8kZAh IA (R – Reynolds):​ Likely R -> Toss Up MA (R – Baker):​ Li…

Created

Fri Jun 15 14:55:50 +0000 2018

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Also, Sanford's loss doesn't mean #AL02 Rep. Martha Roby (R) is about to lose her GOP runoff on 7/17. She's pretty… https://t.co/v4WCrZJL1w

Created

Thu Jun 14 20:16:36 +0000 2018

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Did Sanford lose his #SC01 primary because he spoke out against Trump? Yes. But some people also forget he started… https://t.co/QkdQzS1Ujj

Created

Thu Jun 14 19:55:03 +0000 2018

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Good overview of quantitative vs. qualitative House forecasting by @gelliottmorris in today’s Crystal Ball. https://t.co/fI16MQ8tYJ

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Thu Jun 14 13:14:52 +0000 2018

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#CA48 update: Keirstead (D) lead over Rouda (D) cut from 456 to 370 (0.2%) in latest count. Provisionals (45k in OC… https://t.co/euK1vOCd7o

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Thu Jun 14 04:44:17 +0000 2018

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No Republican has won statewide in VA since ‘09...and it may not happen again for a long time.

Created

Wed Jun 13 15:36:01 +0000 2018

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Ok, one more: Iraq/Afghan vet/state Rep. Jared Golden (D) wins #ME02 primary, defeating Lucas St. Clair (D). Dems l… https://t.co/3dO8x4V1X4

Created

Wed Jun 13 04:05:21 +0000 2018

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That concludes tonight's primary coverage. I'm hungry and headed to @IHOb ...or should I drive 21 mins farther to… https://t.co/KTHVaNKlb0

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Wed Jun 13 03:48:20 +0000 2018

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UPDATE: so far in 2018 Dem House primaries featuring at least one woman, one man & no incumbent, women have been th… https://t.co/f6hdT6tMwS

Created

Wed Jun 13 03:34:30 +0000 2018

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Remarkable: after tonight, Dems have nominated women in 73/150 (49%) of '18 House races (excluding Dem incumbents).… https://t.co/51fw5HKxCJ

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Wed Jun 13 03:21:08 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: how about a third: sign a contract with CNN/MSNBC https://t.co/0rU1YHZOor

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Wed Jun 13 03:08:08 +0000 2018

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Projection: Susie Lee (D) & Danny Tarkanian (R) win their primaries for open #NV03, will face off in November.… https://t.co/yRHJTK2rMd

Created

Wed Jun 13 03:03:54 +0000 2018

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Projection: former Reps. Steven Horsford (D) & Cresent Hardy (R) win their primaries in #NV04, will face off in Nov… https://t.co/u61PaQlmT2

Created

Wed Jun 13 03:02:27 +0000 2018

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#SC01 Rep. Mark Sanford (R) loses for the first time in his career. Katie Arrington (R) faces Joe Cunningham (D) in… https://t.co/5GVwx4W45m

Created

Wed Jun 13 03:00:16 +0000 2018

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Hard to believe, but true. https://t.co/9H3TK5MtJd

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Wed Jun 13 02:57:46 +0000 2018

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Meanwhile, Plumer (R) holds WI #AD42 53%-45%, a Trump +15 district. Dems cut the Trump margin by about half but still came up short.

Created

Wed Jun 13 02:55:33 +0000 2018

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Del Ray takes revenge on the Waterfront #AlexandriaVA https://t.co/JvTvXWQlo6

Created

Wed Jun 13 02:48:24 +0000 2018

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I thought the whole point was they were instant. https://t.co/vmrkBgQ41Z

Created

Wed Jun 13 02:35:56 +0000 2018

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Update: Frostman (D) looks like he's flipped this Trump +16% WI state senate district for Dems. 52%-48% w/ 97% precincts reporting.

Created

Wed Jun 13 02:25:37 +0000 2018

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Fmr. state Sen. Lee Bright (R) (of flag-defending fame) has secured a #SC04 runoff slot w/ 33%, but state legislato… https://t.co/W3Qa4RFV0R

Created

Wed Jun 13 02:20:52 +0000 2018

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In WI, Caleb Frostman (D) currently leading Andre Jacque (R) 52%-48% in #SD01 special election for seat Trump won 5… https://t.co/i2YbEULjdX

Created

Wed Jun 13 02:15:32 +0000 2018

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After that low Comstock % in #VA10, really wondering what % Rep. Mark Amodei (R) will get vs. Sharron Angle (R) in #NV02.

Created

Wed Jun 13 02:00:33 +0000 2018

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Interesting that both #VA10 nominees, Comstock (R) and Wexton (D), did well in Loudoun & Fairfax (where the votes a… https://t.co/qXSyuJmUt2

Created

Wed Jun 13 01:58:02 +0000 2018

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Hmm...how the hell am I supposed to interpret results in a race w/ RCV? #ME02 #newproblems https://t.co/CwYCWXcnLc

Created

Wed Jun 13 01:43:10 +0000 2018

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Except that HoD district voted for Clinton. #VA01 as a whole? 53%-41% Trump. https://t.co/X5JZT9kfni

Created

Wed Jun 13 01:38:52 +0000 2018

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In #SC05, Archie Parnell (D), who admitted to abusing ex-wife in 1970s & lost DCCC's support, handily wins primary… https://t.co/hcPKlhOf7b

Created

Wed Jun 13 01:34:29 +0000 2018

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Former GOP Lt. Gov. of VA... #VASEN https://t.co/brqW2qjIIc

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Wed Jun 13 01:24:28 +0000 2018

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Open #SC04: fmr. state Sen. Lee Bright (R) wins a runoff slot, battle for the other between state Sen. William Timm… https://t.co/2c7Lg0wmvz

Created

Wed Jun 13 01:23:01 +0000 2018

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Now might be a good time for folks to start paying attention to ocean engineer/yoga studio owner Joe Cunningham (D)… https://t.co/EHQ6MfZAYW

Created

Wed Jun 13 01:15:41 +0000 2018

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Rep. Mark Sanford (R)'s increasingly probable defeat in #SC01 means vocally Trump-skeptic Rs essentially have two c… https://t.co/MvIfUayT7s

Created

Wed Jun 13 01:10:31 +0000 2018

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Katie Arrington (R) leading Rep. Mark Sanford (R) 16,043 to 13,990 per @DecisionDeskHQ count in #SC01. He's in *deep* trouble.

Created

Wed Jun 13 01:06:55 +0000 2018

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Corey Stewart (R) #VASEN nomination probably not helpful for GOP chances of holding #VA02, #VA07, #VA10 & maybe #VA05 (near Freitas's home).

Created

Wed Jun 13 01:03:02 +0000 2018

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Projection: Councilman Justin Wilson (D) has defeated incumbent Mayor Allison Silberberg (D) in Alexandria, VA (sor… https://t.co/6UBgpk0q0R

Created

Wed Jun 13 01:00:41 +0000 2018

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Projection: Corey Stewart (R) wins the GOP nomination for #VASEN, defeating Nick Freitas (R). @CookPolitical fall rating: Solid D.

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:52:19 +0000 2018

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Corey Stewart (R) lost the #VAGOV primary by a point in '17. He may win the #VASEN primary by a point in '18. This… https://t.co/oyU9YgQphX

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:48:41 +0000 2018

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With 23/29 precincts in Alexandria, VA counted: Justin Wilson (D) 7,569 Allison Silberberg (D) 7,177 Going down t… https://t.co/uAhSREUFHu

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:46:34 +0000 2018

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Comstock (R) is TRAILING Hill (R) in Frederick Co., the GOP bedrock of #VA10. Not a good sign of enthusiasm for her for fall vs. Wexton (D).

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:42:58 +0000 2018

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Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) is up 59%-41% vs. Shak Hill (R) in #VA10 w/ 78% reporting. That's astonishingly weak for this two-term incumbent.

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:40:25 +0000 2018

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Corey Stewart (R) takes 2,037 vote lead (0.8%) vs. Nick Freitas (R) w/ 91% reporting. Math getting a bit harder for Freitas now. #VASEN GOP.

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:37:04 +0000 2018

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Rep. Mark Sanford (R) currently trails Katie Arrington (R) 2,267 to 2,224 in early #SC01 count, per @DecisionDeskHQ. Long way to go here.

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:35:51 +0000 2018

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With PWC absentees back in the mix, Stewart (R) lead back up to 1,375 (0.5%) w/ 90% reporting. He might have tiny edge at this point.

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:33:07 +0000 2018

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Updated AP count: Stewart (R) leads by 382 votes (0.1%) over Freitas (R) w/ 90% precincts reporting. Anyone's guess in #VASEN GOP.

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:30:58 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Stewart (R) takes 1,109 vote lead (0.4%) over Freitas (R) w/ all of Prince William reporting. Lots of Ste… https://t.co/UjeTeduvKO

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:24:57 +0000 2018

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VA board of elections site has Freitas (R) lead over Stewart (R) down to 312 votes w/ 88% reporting. #VASEN

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:22:59 +0000 2018

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Del. Nick Frietas (R) lead vs. Corey Stewart (R) down to 1.2% w/ 84% reporting. Bulk of outstanding precincts frien… https://t.co/Ff5Zr4L0uY

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:15:12 +0000 2018

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Alexandria, VA update: Justin WIlson (D) takes 53%-47% lead over Mayor Allison Silberberg (D) w/ 48% counted. Looki… https://t.co/2a0Km9lWdM

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:11:46 +0000 2018

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But Silberberg's best precinct, City Hall (anti-development voters), has already reported. So we could be looking at a slight Wilson edge.

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:03:51 +0000 2018

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We've got a nailbiter in the Alexandria, VA mayor's race, w/ Councilman Justin Wilson (D) leading Mayor Allison Sil… https://t.co/0xpRd0RFVo

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:02:17 +0000 2018

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In #VASEN GOP, Del. Nick Freitas (R) leads Corey Stewart (R) 45%-43% w/ 72% reporting. But still not much from Fair… https://t.co/e57oVIUwNQ

Created

Wed Jun 13 00:00:24 +0000 2018

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Lesson from tonight's #VA10 Dem primary: when you're endorsed by WaPo & Gov. Ralph Northam in NoVa, it's pretty hard to lose.

Created

Tue Jun 12 23:57:44 +0000 2018

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Lindsey Davis Stover (D) turning in some impressive %s in Winchester & Manassas areas, now on track to come in 3rd… https://t.co/Im687d64vJ

Created

Tue Jun 12 23:56:33 +0000 2018

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Right now, Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) & Dem nominee Jennifer Wexton (D) leading their primaries by about same amount… https://t.co/xwTUFr2AW4

Created

Tue Jun 12 23:52:20 +0000 2018

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Wexton (D) even takes first Fairfax Co. precinct to report 263-187 over Friedman (D). Icing on the cake for her primary victory. #VA10

Created

Tue Jun 12 23:48:45 +0000 2018

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In the *unlikely* event #SC01 GOP primary goes to a runoff, Trump's 3-hours-before-polls-close endorsement of Arrin… https://t.co/YD1QTu8t6l

Created

Tue Jun 12 23:45:11 +0000 2018

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Projection: Elaine Luria (D) has defeated Karen Mallard (D) in #VA02 primary to take on Rep. Scott Taylor (R).… https://t.co/5wLl6I0g4J

Created

Tue Jun 12 23:41:53 +0000 2018

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Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) lead over Shak Hill (R) just 62%-38% w/ nearly half of #VA10 precincts counted, per @DecisionDeskHQ.

Created

Tue Jun 12 23:40:47 +0000 2018

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#VA10 runner up: Alison Friedman (D), who moved from DC to VA last year to run & self-funded $1 million. Dan Helmer (D) likely 3rd.

Created

Tue Jun 12 23:24:49 +0000 2018

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Projection: state Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D) wins #VA10 primary to take on Rep. Barbara Comstock (R), perhaps most vu… https://t.co/v9HHGSMM6X

Created

Tue Jun 12 23:23:10 +0000 2018

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Looks like Jennifer Wexton (D) is poised for a rout in #VA10 primary. That means Dems will have nominated women in… https://t.co/vp56WizE5c

Created

Tue Jun 12 23:20:46 +0000 2018

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Projection: Abigail Spanberger (D) has defeated Dan Ward (D) for #VA07 nomination to take on Rep. Dave Brat (R).… https://t.co/UWApSsaKTh

Created

Tue Jun 12 23:18:15 +0000 2018

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In #VASEN GOP primary, we've got a close one between Corey Stewart (46%) & Del. Nick Freitas (44%) so far.

Created

Tue Jun 12 23:16:39 +0000 2018

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Meanwhile on R side, #VA10 Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) leads Shak Hill (R) 63%-37% w/ 12/97 Loudoun precincts reporti… https://t.co/gErLjCEIFT

Created

Tue Jun 12 23:15:31 +0000 2018

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With 13/97 Loudoun precincts in, Wexton (D) extends #VA10 lead over Friedman (D) to 2,036 to 915, per @DecisionDeskHQ. No surprise here.

Created

Tue Jun 12 23:13:28 +0000 2018

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Breaking: first 4 precincts from #VA10 give Jennifer Wexton (D) a nearly 2-1 lead over Alison Friedman (D), no one… https://t.co/AScLUpRIg2

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Tue Jun 12 23:11:06 +0000 2018

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@Jewelyn4ACPS Why not!

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Tue Jun 12 23:03:19 +0000 2018

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Polls close in a few minutes in VA. Favorites in key Dem House primaries include Elaine Luria (#VA02), Abigail Span… https://t.co/NAqs1Ks5Ug

Created

Tue Jun 12 22:54:38 +0000 2018

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@JMilesColeman #VA10 prediction?

Created

Tue Jun 12 21:47:17 +0000 2018

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RT @CarrieNBCNews: Trump's not the first to drag out the subtle-not-so-subtle infidelity stuff on Sanford. See Arrington's "take a hike" ad…

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Tue Jun 12 20:42:19 +0000 2018

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Yes, there is a real chance Rep. Mark Sanford (R) loses his #SC01 primary tonight. @CookPolitical fall rating: Like… https://t.co/mH0dRWyorA

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Tue Jun 12 18:23:47 +0000 2018

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Dem nominee Danny O'Connor up w/ new ad for 8/7 #OH12 special highlighting his refusal to back Pelosi. Keep in mind… https://t.co/sW8GabKZ92

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Tue Jun 12 18:21:38 +0000 2018

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#CA48 update: Keirstead (D) extends lead over Rouda (D) to 372 votes, but still no E-Day provisionals counted, whic… https://t.co/ttSAChdG71

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Tue Jun 12 00:08:43 +0000 2018

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@SteveKornacki That's likely because the first ballots counted post-election were the small batch of older mail bal… https://t.co/Q5MDV2ROPi

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Mon Jun 11 21:37:08 +0000 2018

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@SteveKornacki Steve, correct me if I'm wrong but I think that's because the post-election updates have been from t… https://t.co/7G0DfHiHXy

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Mon Jun 11 20:41:20 +0000 2018

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This is a good explanation for why Rep. Pete Sessions (#TX32) may be more vulnerable than Rep. Will Hurd (#TX23) or… https://t.co/DA6er0Cuep

Created

Mon Jun 11 18:51:35 +0000 2018

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Why is the 2018 "Blue Wave" most powerful in suburban districts w/ lots of female college grads but less threatenin… https://t.co/rvQPo1JumU

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Mon Jun 11 18:48:48 +0000 2018

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Also odd that her intro ad doesn't more prominently highlight her background as a prosecutor or endorsements from G… https://t.co/v2fdQHPOU5

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Mon Jun 11 17:24:32 +0000 2018

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State Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D) is still the fave in tomorrow's #VA10 Dem primary, but this is a strange ad. Let alo… https://t.co/KyXxEhsjFf

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Mon Jun 11 17:18:38 +0000 2018

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Might as well go full sociopath here: I also really enjoy top-two primaries. There, I said it. *hides in corner*

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Sat Jun 09 16:36:07 +0000 2018

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Confess your unpopular opinion: I really enjoy CA’s slothlike vote count.

Created

Sat Jun 09 16:24:00 +0000 2018

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Despite his 20 vote lead, I don’t really see a path for Keirstead (D) in #CA48. Based on what we know about what’s… https://t.co/3wItu0AwfJ

Created

Sat Jun 09 16:17:36 +0000 2018

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RT @NateSilver538: Put another way, 35 or 40 percent of the overall vote is still outstanding. There's been a lot of back-and-forth about w…

Created

Fri Jun 08 17:41:50 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: 5 House rating changes in CA & NJ the wake of Tuesday's primaries (3 towards Dems, 2 towards… https://t.co/WMVq83VFqn

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Fri Jun 08 15:41:43 +0000 2018

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@jbarro Yes

Created

Fri Jun 08 15:28:12 +0000 2018

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RT @CookPolitical: What actually constitutes a wave election? NEW @amyewalter column: https://t.co/mGXyyRvAYm

Created

Thu Jun 07 20:26:51 +0000 2018

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A good look at the SCOTUS gerrymandering possibilities by @galendruke https://t.co/4O5ZLmpzph

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Thu Jun 07 18:54:42 +0000 2018

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#CA48 Update: more mail ballots put Hans Keirstead (D) back up over Harley Rouda (D) by 45 votes. But via an OC sou… https://t.co/knsEQC50zD

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Thu Jun 07 17:31:33 +0000 2018

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To clarify, late counting has Dems in 3rd place in #CA08, held by Rep. Paul Cook (R). But it's a Solid R seat & mor… https://t.co/ft9bYXDAlJ

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Wed Jun 06 22:27:39 +0000 2018

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@miss_alden Solid Dem

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Wed Jun 06 20:55:58 +0000 2018

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Here's how we'd rank/rate CA's Dem targets after last night: #CA49: OPEN (R): Lean D (was Toss Up) #CA25: Knight (… https://t.co/QzH667x7Wc

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Wed Jun 06 19:50:16 +0000 2018

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Here's how we rate/rank NJ's Dem pickup opportunities following last night: #NJ02: OPEN (R) - Likely D (was Lean D… https://t.co/ifSWtPb9HO

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Wed Jun 06 19:41:44 +0000 2018

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In #MTAL Dem primary, state Rep. Kathleen Williams raised just $286,000 but still defeated John Heenan ($968,000) and Grant Kier ($772,000).

Created

Wed Jun 06 19:34:25 +0000 2018

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Meanwhile, so far in 2018 GOP primaries w/ at least one woman, one man & no incumbent on the ballot, women have won… https://t.co/b09W5TujVp

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Wed Jun 06 19:09:26 +0000 2018

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I've never seen anything quite like it: so far in 2018 Dem primaries w/ at least one woman, one man & no incumbent… https://t.co/moS8OoGXVR

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Wed Jun 06 19:05:21 +0000 2018

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This is very helpful to get a sense of how much D/R %s can change between June and November in CA. Typically, Dems… https://t.co/lW8AfPJmni

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Wed Jun 06 16:37:03 +0000 2018

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The only exception may be Valadao (R) in #CA21, who is currently 25% ahead of Cox (D). But even there, primary turn… https://t.co/NkoZitOdEn

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Wed Jun 06 15:47:58 +0000 2018

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Remember: the raging Bernie/Hillary contest inflated Dem %s in ‘16 CA primaries. Ordinarily, CA primaries skew quit… https://t.co/EPdXP6h3Zw

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Wed Jun 06 15:45:47 +0000 2018

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Keep in mind: not only is it too early to draw conclusions about party %s from primary (still lots to count), Nov.… https://t.co/GaAvtzXG6i

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Wed Jun 06 13:35:48 +0000 2018

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BTW, #CA25 has been my top pick for most fascinating district to watch this cycle. ICYMI, here's some background on… https://t.co/nfM0r6wRwt

Created

Wed Jun 06 08:32:47 +0000 2018

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Projection: in #CA25, Katie Hill (D) has advanced to November vs. Rep. Steve Knight (R), defeating '16 nominee Brya… https://t.co/1XoVSbkYvS

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Wed Jun 06 08:30:12 +0000 2018

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Republicans have to love numbers in #CA21, where Rep. David Valadao (R) is out-polling T.J. Cox (D) 63%-37% in a CD… https://t.co/kHgJHiC7k7

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Wed Jun 06 08:21:47 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Dems get a little more breathing room in latest #CA10 vote update. Josh Harder (D): 9,635 Ted Howze (R):… https://t.co/AQzhXIsDiR

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Wed Jun 06 08:06:41 +0000 2018

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CA districts where one party will *not* appear on fall ballot, as results stand now: GOP: 10/53 Dems: 0/53

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Wed Jun 06 08:02:15 +0000 2018

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RT @LarrySabato: Thanks, Dave. Now, if I could just be rid of the MyPillow guy... https://t.co/atGprk3Rgq

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Wed Jun 06 07:53:37 +0000 2018

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#CA25 Update: Katie Hill (D) extends lead over Bryan Caforio (D) to 732 votes: Steve Knight (R): 30,375 Katie Hill… https://t.co/deFX2QCC3E

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Wed Jun 06 07:51:13 +0000 2018

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Worth noting that Josh Harder (D)'s lead over Ted Howze (R) for 2nd slot in #CA10 continues to shrink slightly w/ E… https://t.co/bHq0wPvmxO

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Wed Jun 06 07:44:48 +0000 2018

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#CA49 Projection: Mike Levin (D) advances to November election vs. Diane Harkey (R). Both parties avert shutout.… https://t.co/LxpWDgG0a0

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Wed Jun 06 07:37:29 +0000 2018

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BREAKING: Harley Rouda (D) overtakes Hans Keirstead (D) for 2nd November slot in #CA48 by 70 (!) votes: Dana Rohra… https://t.co/7RKLdeWn08

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Wed Jun 06 07:33:11 +0000 2018

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UPDATE: Katie Hill (D) expands lead over Bryan Caforio (D) in #CA25 to 513 votes w/ more E-Day counted: Katie Hill… https://t.co/ytt44DF7qc

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Wed Jun 06 07:30:20 +0000 2018

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Hill (D) beat Caforio (D) 2,016 to 1,350 in Ventura Co.'s E-Day votes, which is a pretty good sign for Hill re: out… https://t.co/JQblAHb0XK

Created

Wed Jun 06 07:19:15 +0000 2018

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Projection: in #CA50, Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) advances vs. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R). DCCC's preferred candidate, Josh… https://t.co/wGySVPboq4

Created

Wed Jun 06 07:14:50 +0000 2018

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BREAKING: Katie Hill (D) has taken the lead over Bryan Caforio (D) in #CA25 w/ new Ventura Co. votes. Katie Hill (… https://t.co/cXzNcY7HdY

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Wed Jun 06 07:06:44 +0000 2018

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Still a lot of counting to do, but my hunch is we're looking at Rohrabacher (R) vs. Rouda (D) in #CA48, w/ @DCCC su… https://t.co/NinWnSKYGW

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Wed Jun 06 07:03:58 +0000 2018

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I think it's gonna be Rouda in #CA48.

Created

Wed Jun 06 07:02:24 +0000 2018

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Moreover, some of their stronger general election candidates (Hill in #CA25, Rouda in #CA48, Levin in #CA49) still… https://t.co/hBcbTuiaMM

Created

Wed Jun 06 06:57:26 +0000 2018

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Dems have to be pretty happy w/ CA results right now: they look like they'll avert shutouts in EVERY target distric… https://t.co/efXKgjUue3

Created

Wed Jun 06 06:54:20 +0000 2018

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In #CA25, Katie Hill (D) catching up to Bryan Caforio (D) quickly in Election Day vote. Leads 1,672 to 1,347 w/ LA… https://t.co/fCUe6RkYFB

Created

Wed Jun 06 06:48:07 +0000 2018

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Dems currently pulling 50.6% of primary votes in #CA49 (and likely to go higher in late counting), a pretty good om… https://t.co/OrOIgkZkJG

Created

Wed Jun 06 06:43:10 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Scott Baugh (R) now looking likely to come in 4th place in #CA48. Race for 2nd likely coming down to Hans… https://t.co/nQOLI9s1Mj

Created

Wed Jun 06 06:38:05 +0000 2018

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Projection: in #CA45, Katie Porter (D) advances to November vs. Rep. Mimi Walters (R). @CookPolitical rating: Lean R.

Created

Wed Jun 06 06:35:32 +0000 2018

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Projection: Dem lockout averted in #CA39 as Gil Cisneros (D) advances to November vs. Young Kim (R). @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up.

Created

Wed Jun 06 06:33:24 +0000 2018

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Let me explain the #CA48 mystery. Right now, here are Orange Co.'s reported absentees by state Senate district for… https://t.co/ek3rM7jJIG

Created

Wed Jun 06 06:19:44 +0000 2018

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And that's not even taking into account a likely tabulation error that could be costing Rouda 2k votes. https://t.co/SvKVql1Qjl

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Wed Jun 06 06:15:27 +0000 2018

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@ElectProject @DemJasonPaul It's Election Day vote, not a glitch fix.

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Wed Jun 06 05:56:08 +0000 2018

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I'd still guess Katie Hill (D) has a shot to catch up to Bryan Caforio (D) in #CA25, given that she started off w/… https://t.co/aNACye5diK

Created

Wed Jun 06 05:52:49 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Harley Rouda (D) still has a good shot at moving into 2nd place vs. Dana Rohrabacher (R) in #CA48 based o… https://t.co/COX6t55qj8

Created

Wed Jun 06 05:43:14 +0000 2018

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Projection: state Sen. Kevin de Leon (D) advances to November election vs. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) in #CASEN. Republicans locked out.

Created

Wed Jun 06 05:28:51 +0000 2018

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If you gave Harley Rouda (D) an extra 2,000 votes (our best estimate of what he's missing), he'd bump Scott Baugh (… https://t.co/2RkcqEWdNO

Created

Wed Jun 06 05:14:22 +0000 2018

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The plot thickens! Here's the evidence: if you go through the #CA48 detailed report, Rouda's numbers in #SD34 are i… https://t.co/bhaKBo1AbX

Created

Wed Jun 06 05:03:42 +0000 2018

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BREAKING: hearing word of a possible tabulation error in Orange Co. that could be costing Harley Rouda (D) ~2,000 v… https://t.co/Q3IDyj82P2

Created

Wed Jun 06 04:56:39 +0000 2018

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On NYT site, #CA10 looks like a top-two danger for Dems, but once you add in San Joaquin's votes, Harder (D) has mo… https://t.co/KJuCPnYiad

Created

Wed Jun 06 04:44:25 +0000 2018

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Now, are Dems getting the best/most ideal general election nominees in these CA districts? That's less clear. But beggars can't be choosers.

Created

Wed Jun 06 04:38:33 +0000 2018

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Lots of foaming at the mouth on networks right now re: potential for CA Dem lockouts. At the moment, #CA48 is in qu… https://t.co/NSWVF00hHC

Created

Wed Jun 06 04:36:49 +0000 2018

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Breaking: updated #CA10 results w/ San Joaquin Co. first batch added: Jeff Denham (R) 15,870 Josh Harder (D) 6,081… https://t.co/6yZHeDGKEB

Created

Wed Jun 06 04:32:55 +0000 2018

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The next member from #NM02 will be a woman: Xochitl Torres Small (R) & Yvette Herrell (R) win their primaries.… https://t.co/RFTUTddYES

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Wed Jun 06 04:27:16 +0000 2018

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Rep. Devin Nunes (R) has increased his lead over Andrew Janz (D) to 58%-32% in #CA22 w/ Tulare Co. first batch in.… https://t.co/AafqzHwdtF

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Wed Jun 06 04:23:12 +0000 2018

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Breaking: updated #CA25 numbers w/ LA/Ventura first batches: Steve Knight (R) 54.9% Bryan Caforio (D) 19.9% Katie… https://t.co/BIZEyGY38h

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Wed Jun 06 04:10:24 +0000 2018

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Breaking: updated #CA39 results w/ LA/Orange/SB first batches: Young Kim (R): 9,656 Gil Cisneros (D): 6,060 Phil L… https://t.co/BwZ0vfPpkE

Created

Wed Jun 06 04:06:07 +0000 2018

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If past is prologue, CA ballots will skew more Dem as counting goes on. That's decent news for Dems hoping to avert… https://t.co/K419B0GSVI

Created

Wed Jun 06 03:59:38 +0000 2018

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In #CA04, another Dem long shot, Jessica Morse (D) looks like the early favorite to take on Rep. Tom McClintock (R)… https://t.co/8VY4YgpIGf

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Wed Jun 06 03:57:08 +0000 2018

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#CA08: A long shot for Dems, but Marge Doyle (D) currently in 3rd place behind ultra-right Tim Donnelly (R) after r… https://t.co/i8U7X3D6ya

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Wed Jun 06 03:54:23 +0000 2018

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Breaking: close three-way race for 2nd place in San Diego Co. #CA50, where Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) is under federal… https://t.co/RPvWSkaxU4

Created

Wed Jun 06 03:48:31 +0000 2018

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Breaking: actor Antonio Sabato, Jr. (R) in danger of getting locked out of the top-two in #CA26. Also breaking:… https://t.co/qpMVGuqriE

Created

Wed Jun 06 03:44:57 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Dems narrowly averting top-two shutout for time being in #CA10. It could get even closer. Jeff Denham (R… https://t.co/h6cHva8Nmm

Created

Wed Jun 06 03:41:05 +0000 2018

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Breaking in #CA25: Katie Hill (D) & Bryan Caforio (D) TIED In Ventura Co. first batch: Steve Knight (R): 4,871 Kat… https://t.co/lmcO11Lxfc

Created

Wed Jun 06 03:38:12 +0000 2018

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Breaking: #CA22 Rep. Devin Nunes (R) leads Andrew Janz (D) 56%-34% in first batch of Fresno votes. About what we'd… https://t.co/F71ERuRgg8

Created

Wed Jun 06 03:36:35 +0000 2018

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Breaking: shutout averted in #CA49. Orange & San Diego first batch votes: Harkey (R) 16,471 Levin (D) 11,189 Jacob… https://t.co/GgH3NWmjnb

Created

Wed Jun 06 03:31:17 +0000 2018

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Dems currently making the #CA48 top-two runoff by just 0.7% at the moment w/ non-DCCC preferred candidate Hans Keir… https://t.co/R2YG0s4Xlx

Created

Wed Jun 06 03:21:11 +0000 2018

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RT @Nate_Cohn: Not quite the early vote that Democrats were hoping for in CA-48. A Dem is in second, yes, but barely and not the DCCC prefe…

Created

Wed Jun 06 03:15:53 +0000 2018

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Breaking #CA45 first batch: Mimi Walters (R) 54% Katie Porter (D) 20% Dave Min (D) 17% No shutout risk for Dems h… https://t.co/M88EGMVnUP

Created

Wed Jun 06 03:13:04 +0000 2018

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Breaking #CA49 (Orange Co. portion) first batch: Diane Harkey (R) 32% Mike Levin (D) 19% Sara Jacobs (D) 12% Doug… https://t.co/y6jzzZQIFw

Created

Wed Jun 06 03:11:58 +0000 2018

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Breaking #CA48 first batch: Dana Rohrabacher (R) 30% Hans Keirstead (D) 19% Scott Baugh (R) 18% Harley Rouda (D) 1… https://t.co/wUJPFSoChN

Created

Wed Jun 06 03:10:14 +0000 2018

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Breaking: #CA39 (Orange Co. portion) first batch: Young Kim (R) 29% Gil Cisneros (D) 16% Phil Liberatore (R) 12% S… https://t.co/nnIHK0dP74

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Wed Jun 06 03:08:10 +0000 2018

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BREAKING: Orange Co. posts early results. https://t.co/qexAPBioiZ

Created

Wed Jun 06 03:06:27 +0000 2018

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And maybe two weeks until we know who wins.

Created

Wed Jun 06 03:00:29 +0000 2018

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Two minutes to California.

Created

Wed Jun 06 02:58:46 +0000 2018

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Projection: in #SDAL, Dusty Johnson (R), fmr. Gov. Daugaard chief of staff, defeats two more conservative opponents… https://t.co/s4YyxwlKXf

Created

Wed Jun 06 02:54:45 +0000 2018

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Tonight's primaries confirm: women are crushing it in Dem primaries. https://t.co/Ucww7RUX4r

Created

Wed Jun 06 02:47:58 +0000 2018

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Could an upset be brewing in #MTAL? State Rep. Kathleen Williams (D) currently leading much better-funded John Heen… https://t.co/w8vKqoy94r

Created

Wed Jun 06 02:42:08 +0000 2018

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RT @baseballot: In #NM01, it looks like Deb Haaland will be the 1st Native American woman elected to Congress. She leads the D primary with…

Created

Wed Jun 06 02:29:29 +0000 2018

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Cindy Axne (D) absolutely crushing Eddie Mauro (D) in #IA03 primary so far. Needs 35% to avoid convention, has 57% right now.

Created

Wed Jun 06 02:20:43 +0000 2018

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#NJ05: attorney John McCann (R) on verge of upsetting former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan (R) for right to face Rep.… https://t.co/c9nd7XWOFV

Created

Wed Jun 06 02:10:55 +0000 2018

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#NJ02: former Atlantic Co. Freeholder/radio host Seth Grossman (R) wins primary to face state Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D… https://t.co/prG1R3kvoK

Created

Wed Jun 06 02:08:15 +0000 2018

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Iowa awaits: Abby Finkenauer (D) heavy primary favorite in Toss Up #IA01, close call between Cindy Axne (D) & Eddie… https://t.co/Qn017Usz2V

Created

Wed Jun 06 02:03:11 +0000 2018

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In #MS03, county prosecutor Michael Guest (R) & healthcare executive Whit Hughes (R) appear headed for 6/26 GOP runoff. Safe R seat.

Created

Wed Jun 06 01:56:05 +0000 2018

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Dems picking up a Trump +5 state senate seat in MO by a landslide tonight - currently 60%-40% w/ 82% counted. https://t.co/yqHWyY4UGv

Created

Wed Jun 06 01:44:03 +0000 2018

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Based on earliest Morris votes, Jay Webber (R) looks like he'll win #NJ11 GOP primary. But nowhere near as dominant… https://t.co/av7yjREJwV

Created

Wed Jun 06 01:30:53 +0000 2018

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Rep. Martha Roby (R) leading #AL02 primary field w/ 39%. Looks very likely headed to 7/17 runoff vs. former Rep. Bobby Bright (27%).

Created

Wed Jun 06 01:25:46 +0000 2018

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RT @markzbarabak: CA watch==> https://t.co/2wGCwXwesb

Created

Wed Jun 06 01:15:36 +0000 2018

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Projection: Mikie Sherrill (D) wins nomination in #NJ11. GOP side TBD. @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up, but Sherrill… https://t.co/lu48Fx7M8I

Created

Wed Jun 06 01:07:47 +0000 2018

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@Nate_Cohn As a central Jersey native from just north of #NJ04, I'd classify Smith as "central."

Created

Wed Jun 06 00:59:31 +0000 2018

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Projection: Tom Malinowski (D) wins nomination to face Rep. Leonard Lance (R) in #NJ07. @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up.

Created

Wed Jun 06 00:52:35 +0000 2018

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Projection: state Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D) wins nomination in #NJ02. @CookPolitical rating: Lean Dem.

Created

Wed Jun 06 00:51:27 +0000 2018

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It's quite possible Republicans will have zero federal officeholders from North Jersey post-2018. Can't remember a time that was the case.

Created

Wed Jun 06 00:47:24 +0000 2018

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Menendez still at unimpressive 59% w/ 8,600 votes counted (will likely climb higher when more of North Jersey starts reporting). #NJSEN

Created

Wed Jun 06 00:30:28 +0000 2018

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These tepid showings for Menendez in Hunterdon/Gloucester make you wonder what shape he'd be in if he were facing a… https://t.co/FKrYXQjbPG

Created

Wed Jun 06 00:18:10 +0000 2018

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These tepid showings for Menendez in Hunterdon/Gloucester/Salem make you wonder what shape he'd be in if he were fa… https://t.co/4C2jATjFjL

Created

Wed Jun 06 00:17:32 +0000 2018

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Polls have just closed in my home state of NJ, where Dems have chances in 4/5 GOP-held seats this fall. Current… https://t.co/s2ZfGJBVEy

Created

Wed Jun 06 00:08:10 +0000 2018

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ICYMI: our final preview of the top 10 California House primaries to watch tonight: https://t.co/zSpdU9dwVD

Created

Tue Jun 05 23:47:25 +0000 2018

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My favorite race tonight: #CA25, where Katie Hill (D) & Bryan Caforio (D) are battling to take on Rep. Steve Knight… https://t.co/00h3DtDF7J

Created

Tue Jun 05 20:10:58 +0000 2018

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Why might Dems' shutout risk now be greatest in #CA39? Here are latest mail ballot return rates for registered Ds/R… https://t.co/UNsTgVzed1

Created

Tue Jun 05 16:07:00 +0000 2018

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RT @paulmitche11: If you’ve enjoyed the absentee ballot tracker this cycle, please give this near-final update a RT! 👇 https://t.co/Js9OTfO…

Created

Tue Jun 05 15:46:04 +0000 2018

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In past week: #VA05 Rep. Tom Garrett (R) retires to seek treatment for alcoholism & GOP leaders nominate a distille… https://t.co/bL0XBCbNLO

Created

Tue Jun 05 04:00:53 +0000 2018

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We have a situation: if Grimm beats Donovan in GOP primary & Donovan still appears on Conservative/Independence lin… https://t.co/yv52D3JrKc

Created

Tue Jun 05 03:44:00 +0000 2018

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RT @CookPolitical: The @Redistrict California primary preview you have all been waiting for: https://t.co/IsH7cgv2Rv

Created

Mon Jun 04 22:32:57 +0000 2018

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@DLeonhardt @CookPolitical It's a direct comparison of female candidates' % of the primary vote vs. their share of… https://t.co/uzyixcYnYL

Created

Mon Jun 04 20:46:52 +0000 2018

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Story of '18 primaries so far: female candidates are overperforming by an average of 15% in Dem primaries, vs. 1.7%… https://t.co/PoxdlBJCYX

Created

Mon Jun 04 19:57:43 +0000 2018

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Real question is: where does #PA01 stand after extensive R messaging against Wallace (multi-millionaire, Maryland/S… https://t.co/CTQzzMsgs7

Created

Mon Jun 04 17:44:30 +0000 2018

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Beware those angry summer town halls... https://t.co/J50GD8tjtj

Created

Mon Jun 04 17:38:39 +0000 2018

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Right about where we’d expect #PA01 to start out. @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up. https://t.co/hzud9cjoOI

Created

Mon Jun 04 17:13:44 +0000 2018

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Another reason why #CA39 may now be Dems' biggest lockout fear: a drive to recall state Sen. Josh Newman (D) over h… https://t.co/eGK2FgwNB8

Created

Mon Jun 04 03:51:32 +0000 2018

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@DemocraticLuntz @decunningham2 They're all above R+5 PVI, which is the threshold we set out for the project. We wa… https://t.co/7KoJWmso3M

Created

Sun Jun 03 22:08:50 +0000 2018

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So excited that our Atlas of Redistricting won News Data App of the Year!! Congrats to our crew @ellawinthrop… https://t.co/2w85WMBOVT

Created

Sun Jun 03 17:51:17 +0000 2018

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RT @GENinnovate: 🏆News data app of the year🏆 And the winner is… The Atlas Of Redistricting, @FiveThirtyEight Learn more ➡️ https://t.co/…

Created

Sun Jun 03 17:48:54 +0000 2018

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Another big problem for Dems in #CA39 is that their base there is dominated by non-white & young voters who despise… https://t.co/Zc96H6qfF9

Created

Sun Jun 03 17:09:42 +0000 2018

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The irony: Trump lost #CA39 by the most out of all 4 Clinton/GOP districts in Orange County, but it might still be… https://t.co/sKillyGrtZ

Created

Sun Jun 03 17:08:05 +0000 2018

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In #CA39, Dem voters seem genuinely conflicted between two unsympathetic millionaire front-runners (Cisneros/Thorbu… https://t.co/lHoZnJu0oQ

Created

Sun Jun 03 17:05:06 +0000 2018

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Democrats' greatest top-two shutout risk in CA might now be #CA39, inching past #CA48 (where Baugh (R) has faded).… https://t.co/P161jQbMZG

Created

Sun Jun 03 16:59:47 +0000 2018

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Disaster averted for #VA05 GOP? https://t.co/nwOtt3jFmv

Created

Sat Jun 02 18:59:20 +0000 2018

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RT @JustCallMeFoxy: NRCC to #VA05 GOP https://t.co/Y2nH8R5DCX

Created

Sat Jun 02 18:28:53 +0000 2018

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High drama in #VA05 as GOP could nominate Cynthia Dunbar, former arch-conservative TX education official who doesn’… https://t.co/RkXKOjB3Bq

Created

Sat Jun 02 18:28:38 +0000 2018

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RT @CharlieCookDC: Worth a read, what happens if the midterm elections create a House that is really close? Rich Cohen takes a close look a…

Created

Fri Jun 01 18:43:57 +0000 2018

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Can’t wait. https://t.co/XgT3qm4GRp

Created

Fri Jun 01 18:23:40 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: The top-two CA primary goal was to bypass the party. Now, lots of Dem voters wondering why the party isn't doing enough to…

Created

Thu May 31 22:40:25 +0000 2018

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A #CA49 hunch: what if, after all the millions spent by Jacobs/Levin/Kerr, the only Dem to advance to November is s… https://t.co/MhlEJK7MyO

Created

Thu May 31 16:24:17 +0000 2018

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Yes, we probably haven't talked enough about how Dem lockout of GOP is possible in #CA49. Any combination is possib… https://t.co/yE3kCDs2B8

Created

Thu May 31 16:22:29 +0000 2018

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A mad dash for GOP replacement nominee in #VA05. State Sen. Bill Stanley, state Del. Michael Webert, distillery own… https://t.co/UGxk3BtTS9

Created

Wed May 30 22:40:44 +0000 2018

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@PatrickRuffini @gelliottmorris To be clear, I found nonpartisan/compact maps would result in 3-4 additional D seat… https://t.co/ekt9bLf2cj

Created

Wed May 30 17:43:25 +0000 2018

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We’re keeping #VA05 in Lean R at @CookPolitical pending a GOP replacement nominee. Keep in mind: this CD is a tad m… https://t.co/SSuJJkIszg

Created

Tue May 29 00:13:51 +0000 2018

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In '10/'14, GOP House primaries came to be defined by "job creators/outsiders" crushing legislators/politicians. It… https://t.co/6YlaIyq1Nl

Created

Fri May 25 14:42:38 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: You can't understand/predict 2018 election w/out appreciating the role of "intensity" or 'enthusiasm gap." The intensity of…

Created

Fri May 25 14:27:58 +0000 2018

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Fact: primaries have been held in 147 districts - about 1/3 of the House. So far, women are 43% of all Dem nominees… https://t.co/ft6WykaXR1

Created

Fri May 25 14:18:16 +0000 2018

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If '94 was the "year of the angry white male," '18 is on track to be the "year of the angry college-educated female… https://t.co/UumMBsTicK

Created

Fri May 25 13:33:45 +0000 2018

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RT @DaveAHopkins: The biggest story of the 2018 election so far: https://t.co/FsWb9yimCX

Created

Fri May 25 13:26:13 +0000 2018

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Dec. '17 CNN/SSRS poll: 83% of Democrats said the country "would be governed better if more women were in political… https://t.co/6CBbwicOQG

Created

Fri May 25 13:04:24 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: This is what ‘year of the woman’ looks like... https://t.co/eSZYTt3RxN

Created

Fri May 25 12:59:22 +0000 2018

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Meanwhile, there's no comparable "gender bonus" on the GOP side. Had all Rs on the ballot received the same % (rega… https://t.co/jeF4XFo1QN

Created

Fri May 25 12:56:06 +0000 2018

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Had all Dems on the ballot received the same % (regardless of gender), women would've collectively averaged 39% acr… https://t.co/g3yUqkoFxo

Created

Fri May 25 12:54:47 +0000 2018

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New story at @CookPolitical: Democrats' intense desire to elect women, not ideology, is defining the party's 2018 p… https://t.co/Gbsu0GdWL1

Created

Fri May 25 12:46:17 +0000 2018

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Fact: so far, there have been 14 GOP House primaries w/ at least one woman & one man (and no incumbent) on the ball… https://t.co/eLFJ5XlQ8P

Created

Fri May 25 12:41:38 +0000 2018

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Fact: so far, there have been 65 Dem House primaries w/ at least one woman & one man (and no incumbent) on the ball… https://t.co/rhLJ3pkdEZ

Created

Fri May 25 12:40:09 +0000 2018

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‘94 VA Senate race https://t.co/NyOzr4bWjc

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Thu May 24 04:10:41 +0000 2018

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@ForecasterEnten ‘94 VA Senate race

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Thu May 24 04:10:01 +0000 2018

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It's unclear whether Dems would be better off with/without Rep. Tom Garrett (R) on ballot in #VA05, given how weak… https://t.co/I1CNMdIpq3

Created

Wed May 23 20:29:54 +0000 2018

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So it turns out all the energy spent obsessing over Laura Moser (D) might have been better spent assessing Lizzie F… https://t.co/L5u3GEIKJY

Created

Wed May 23 01:06:27 +0000 2018

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#AR02 is structurally a lot like #KY06 (actually w/ a much tighter Trump margin) - wonder if Dems have a poll showi… https://t.co/GapVYLDW0G

Created

Wed May 23 00:53:43 +0000 2018

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Perhaps nowhere is Dems' desire to elect women more evident than VA, where they're poised to nominate women in all… https://t.co/epdcUXJtXV

Created

Tue May 22 15:43:28 +0000 2018

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RT @CookPolitical: We moved the race rating in four districts today. Full chart here: https://t.co/oM9eunFtkU https://t.co/QNpkkatw1i

Created

Tue May 22 15:40:06 +0000 2018

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Yes, we're aware there are two errors w/ this graphic (#NE02 in wrong location and #SC05 moving wrong direction). B… https://t.co/JooBrgWY4z

Created

Tue May 22 14:06:44 +0000 2018

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@JonesChrisA @HotlineJosh @ScottJenningsKY Apologies for not catching, this will be fixed.

Created

Tue May 22 13:58:34 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: GOP fortunes improve in 4 districts, but Republicans remain underdogs for House control. Ful… https://t.co/4o8OgJa16e

Created

Tue May 22 13:36:51 +0000 2018

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@creynoldsnc I'm working on a piece outlining the statistical "bonus" for women running in Dem primaries this cycle.

Created

Tue May 22 13:31:18 +0000 2018

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Five women took 67% of the vote in the #IL06 Dem primary (despite one man winning w/ 30%), so I'm not so sure about… https://t.co/TzAMsggoE8

Created

Tue May 22 13:27:20 +0000 2018

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Dem primary voters seriously want to elect women in '18. It almost certainly was the difference in Kara Eastman's u… https://t.co/KrQsZMl7bq

Created

Tue May 22 12:09:56 +0000 2018

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RT @allymutnick: NEW: @DCCC recruited @AmyMcGrathKY's top rival, but KY Dems say she's now slightly favored to win Tuesday's #KY06 primary…

Created

Tue May 22 11:59:51 +0000 2018

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So far, GOP House members seeking statewide office are 2/6 in '18 primaries. Should be a bit of a warning to the ot… https://t.co/XBOEgrTymh

Created

Mon May 21 21:47:38 +0000 2018

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There are currently zero women representing PA in the House. After last night there could be four Dem women from me… https://t.co/V15huntyM0

Created

Wed May 16 08:15:10 +0000 2018

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Not that great a night for several former Republicans running in Dem primaries (Brad Ashford in #NE02, Rachel Reddick in #PA01)

Created

Wed May 16 08:13:27 +0000 2018

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Now clear that #PA05 is going to come down to Rich Lazer (D) vs. Mary Gay Scanlon (D), w/ Philly for Lazer & DelCo… https://t.co/eNtIx5wFnL

Created

Wed May 16 01:40:10 +0000 2018

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State Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) looks like the next member of Congress from MontCo's #PA04. Would end PA's all-male c… https://t.co/1Ro5nE5EiT

Created

Wed May 16 01:14:45 +0000 2018

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Even though Philadelphia makes up less than a fifth of new #PA05's population, Deputy Mayor Rich Lazer (D) could br… https://t.co/sWGxU4SAG2

Created

Wed May 16 01:03:56 +0000 2018

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There's gonna be a huge freshman class out of PA, w/ no incumbents on ballot in 7/18 House districts. Tonight determines who emerges.

Created

Wed May 16 00:47:01 +0000 2018

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Thinking there's got to be some kind of reporting error in Bucks? #PA01 https://t.co/eB0ZtroA1B

Created

Wed May 16 00:41:39 +0000 2018

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With nominees set, the 8/7 special in #OH12 between Danny O'Connor (D) & Troy Balderson (R) starts as a Toss Up at @CookPolitical.

Created

Wed May 09 10:40:15 +0000 2018

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Make that three tonight alone. https://t.co/KynTbpcJ1h

Created

Wed May 09 02:36:33 +0000 2018

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The WV GOP electorate is a weird one because so many of Trump's most hardcore WV backers are still registered Dems.

Created

Wed May 09 01:29:51 +0000 2018

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Keep in mind: O'Connor (D) vs. Leneghan (R) is the special election matchup Dems want on 8/7. They may get it, base… https://t.co/eHxzIXNkAv

Created

Wed May 09 01:26:07 +0000 2018

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Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor (D) has likely wrapped up his nomination for #OH12 special on 8/7. Troy Bal… https://t.co/icWVCYali8

Created

Wed May 09 01:14:30 +0000 2018

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Projection: Don Blankenship (R) loses #WVSEN primary.

Created

Wed May 09 01:08:29 +0000 2018

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As Mike Braun (R) rolls in #INSEN primary, brother Steve Braun (R) looks likely to lose #IN04 nomination to state Rep. Jim Baird (R).

Created

Wed May 09 01:06:01 +0000 2018

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One number I'd love to know: how many House members crash and burn running for statewide office in '18? Cc: Luke Messer/Todd Rokita

Created

Wed May 09 00:53:09 +0000 2018

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Rep. Robert Pittenger (R) in danger of losing #NC09 primary, while Rep. Walter Jones (R) surviving in #NC03

Created

Wed May 09 00:50:25 +0000 2018

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@deedahnjr @DKElections We actually had #KS02 in Toss Up but we did miss Joseph Cao in '08

Created

Fri May 04 15:27:27 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: It turns out good candidates are as critical as good districts. Why Democrats risk whiffing… https://t.co/vYUCJEqZCe

Created

Fri May 04 13:54:44 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: Democrats risk whiffing on a top target by nominating a badly flawed candidate vs. #PA01 GOP… https://t.co/i2L7RfN8md

Created

Fri May 04 13:52:48 +0000 2018

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RT @Alex_Roarty: A Dem candidate for state assembly in California is making some serious accusations here against Gil Cisneros, the Democra…

Created

Thu May 03 17:28:58 +0000 2018

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A wild card: who will win the @washingtonpost's endorsement? Dem primaries in Northern Virginia are one of the few… https://t.co/5RapMKI2Hw

Created

Thu May 03 13:41:57 +0000 2018

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State Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D) is the substantial favorite in the 6/12 primary b/c she has an electoral base in Lou… https://t.co/5cTF0rKirs

Created

Thu May 03 13:40:09 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: Who's taking on the most vulnerable House Republican in the country? #VA10 https://t.co/wDdjQkAvCS

Created

Thu May 03 13:31:03 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: Some good news for House Rs. It’s been 3 weeks since Ryan announced his retirement and there have been zero other House R r…

Created

Thu May 03 04:58:17 +0000 2018

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The winner of the 5/15 Dem primary in #PA05 ought to be heavily favored to win this 11/6 special for #PA07 (not tha… https://t.co/l2u5Ez7bOP

Created

Wed May 02 19:17:57 +0000 2018

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Keep in mind: once you get locked out of CA's primary, there is no write-in/independent candidacy recourse and no s… https://t.co/ep8j2sUvTZ

Created

Wed May 02 17:34:11 +0000 2018

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Think of it this way: If Dems were to be "locked out" of the November ballot in all three of #CA39, #CA48 and #CA49… https://t.co/DN9o7nhUc1

Created

Wed May 02 16:48:09 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: House Democrats Risk Disaster in California's June Top Two Primaries https://t.co/AaNOIcqs6R

Created

Wed May 02 16:46:04 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: House Democrats Risk Disaster in California's June Primaries https://t.co/AaNOIcqs6R

Created

Wed May 02 16:44:35 +0000 2018

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This isn't going to be pretty. #FL09 https://t.co/Sp7vLWYYgc

Created

Tue May 01 12:51:38 +0000 2018

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Another reason #OH12 special is so dangerous for Rs: 40% of residents 25+ have a college degree, by far the highest… https://t.co/2iohesSIIx

Created

Mon Apr 30 20:54:56 +0000 2018

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Excellent story on a poorly kept secret of 2011 remap (in PA & elsewhere). https://t.co/vY5GgI7o4u via @phillydotcom

Created

Mon Apr 30 18:20:11 +0000 2018

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Keep in mind: these 3 seats are only ~5% of the battlefield of R seats at risk, but if two Rs advance to November,… https://t.co/GPrxEL8iT5

Created

Mon Apr 30 17:55:54 +0000 2018

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Dems have a real problem w/ 2 competitive Rs in #CA48 (Rohrabacher) & potential for trouble in #CA39 (Royce) & #CA49 (Issa) open seats.

Created

Mon Apr 30 17:54:07 +0000 2018

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The closer we get to CA's 6/5 primary, the more I'm convinced: high odds Dems botch/get "locked out" of *at least*… https://t.co/KSJaWezVou

Created

Mon Apr 30 17:51:35 +0000 2018

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@NateSilver538 @NickRiccardi Do I dare ask you about a turnout bonus? ;)

Created

Fri Apr 27 20:54:48 +0000 2018

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If you were to apply Dems' average overperformance in 7 House specials so far this cycle to the entire House in Nov… https://t.co/KLNifbQL1I

Created

Fri Apr 27 20:42:14 +0000 2018

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New @CookPolitical: #OH12 special election (8/7) to fill GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi's vacant seat moves from Lean R to Tos… https://t.co/amcEtkaXF7

Created

Fri Apr 27 12:13:57 +0000 2018

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New @CookPolitical: #OH12 special election (8/7) to fill GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi's vacant seat moves from Lean R to Tos… https://t.co/OwfyodGEWe

Created

Fri Apr 27 12:12:44 +0000 2018

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@StuPolitics Yes, was referring to possibility of 45+ seat gain and huge, young Dem freshman class more than 290+ seats.

Created

Fri Apr 27 03:09:20 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: If the Dems are doing so great, why don't they have a bigger lead on the generic ballot? Here's my attempt to explain it.…

Created

Thu Apr 26 22:20:58 +0000 2018

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@Barnes_Law @CookPolitical An R+13 PVI means a GOP candidate should get 63% in a neutral environment. Lesko got 52%… https://t.co/5U7uAELYje

Created

Thu Apr 26 21:33:14 +0000 2018

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There's a lot of talk about what could get in Dems' way between now and Nov., but less about how much worse things… https://t.co/42GNywdIdQ

Created

Thu Apr 26 21:19:15 +0000 2018

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@Jonatha99037619 Emerson was quite wrong that Dems were headed for a "surprise upset in the desert." The EV never s… https://t.co/xrmdMRs3ph

Created

Thu Apr 26 20:58:01 +0000 2018

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Next big problem for Rs: #OH12 special on 8/7. 1/3 of the vote is Franklin Co. (Columbus) & Trump lost that area by… https://t.co/Ib5oZ1vSLZ

Created

Thu Apr 26 19:29:19 +0000 2018

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Not an unreasonable guess as to how registrants broke down. FWIW, I still believe the 21% R early vote edge was a m… https://t.co/GgJU7aoSIb

Created

Thu Apr 26 03:58:12 +0000 2018

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Lesko (R)'s margin is now smaller than Joe Arpaio (R)'s was when he carried #AZ08 by 5.0% while losing Maricopa Cou… https://t.co/5LtLbyt60q

Created

Thu Apr 26 03:40:24 +0000 2018

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New batch of #AZ08 drop-off ballots counted today: Tipirneni (D) 4,453 Lesko (R) 4,109 That brings Lesko's margin… https://t.co/UfiirtZ4pt

Created

Thu Apr 26 03:37:56 +0000 2018

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If the only data point you had to go on was last night's #AZ08 result, you'd think a 30-40 seat Dem House gain in Nov. would be way low.

Created

Wed Apr 25 12:34:30 +0000 2018

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If you discard #ALSEN as a special case, Dems' House overperformances have been remarkably consistent: all in the 6… https://t.co/G0yTPLrd01

Created

Wed Apr 25 05:47:51 +0000 2018

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To win the House, Dems need an average overperformance of 4% vs. @CookPolitical PVI. Here's their overperformance i… https://t.co/rQp9g3LnwV

Created

Wed Apr 25 05:25:54 +0000 2018

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New batch of 9k #AZ08 votes just in: Tipirneni (D) 4,588 Lesko (R) 4,408 It's all about margin now. Down to 5.2%.

Created

Wed Apr 25 05:02:11 +0000 2018

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One seat that should newly worry House GOP is Rep. Dave Schweikert (R)'s #AZ06, which voted for Trump by just 9.9% (vs. 20.7% in #AZ08).

Created

Wed Apr 25 04:56:22 +0000 2018

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RT @SteveKornacki: First batch of same day: Tiperneni (D) 1,073 55% Lesko (R) 878 45% Remember Tiperneni needs 63% of what's left. We thin…

Created

Wed Apr 25 04:25:55 +0000 2018

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There are 147 GOP-held House seats less Republican than #AZ08. It's time to start rethinking how many of those are truly safe in November.

Created

Wed Apr 25 04:18:04 +0000 2018

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In '16, Joe Arpaio (R) carried #AZ08 by 5.0% despite losing his job by 11% county-wide. It's possible Debbie Lesko… https://t.co/YQK1VQFFzY

Created

Wed Apr 25 04:14:48 +0000 2018

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In a special with relatively unremarkable candidates in an R+13 seat, Dems appear to have hit at least 47%. Only 92… https://t.co/NdrYVgC0Ns

Created

Wed Apr 25 03:29:39 +0000 2018

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Dems are still extremely unlikely to capture #AZ08 tonight. But Hiral Tipirneni (D)'s 47%+ showing is absolutely co… https://t.co/Y3SZrX2duM

Created

Wed Apr 25 03:14:13 +0000 2018

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The average Dem overperformance vs. Cook PVI in the 7 special elections so far: 9%. Tipirneni currently overperform… https://t.co/YcMAlLQccO

Created

Wed Apr 25 03:11:02 +0000 2018

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Early votes in #AZ08 (likely 3/4 of all ballots): Debbie Lesko (R) 82,294 (53%) Hiral Tipirneni (D) 73,188 (47%)… https://t.co/10Qw5fx8mJ

Created

Wed Apr 25 03:04:57 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Lesko leads 53%-47% in early ballots. #AZ08

Created

Wed Apr 25 03:01:29 +0000 2018

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RT @ForecasterEnten: Our hour long national nightmare is almost over. Thanks all for being here on what is probably going to be the most bo…

Created

Wed Apr 25 02:59:07 +0000 2018

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In other words, the very 1st data batch *should* be enough to project #AZ08 result. https://t.co/vQEZY9vNzI

Created

Wed Apr 25 02:01:42 +0000 2018

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RT @databyler: If you want to know why Arizona is less red than it's been in the past, look at that big blue expanding blob in the middle o…

Created

Wed Apr 25 01:57:47 +0000 2018

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New: TX Gov. Greg Abbott proclaims 6/30 special election to fill resigned Rep. Blake Farenthold (R)'s #TX27. TX spe… https://t.co/Le0gLqyoSG

Created

Tue Apr 24 20:59:52 +0000 2018

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Good thread. The mail component is the fundamental point I think we've both tried to stress. And it wouldn't surpri… https://t.co/CHqx3C4JTb

Created

Tue Apr 24 19:19:44 +0000 2018

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RT @Nate_Cohn: PA-18 special vote history data is in. Some preliminary cuts: The electorate was D+4 by party registration, 48 to 44, appx t…

Created

Tue Apr 24 18:05:26 +0000 2018

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Think of #AZ08 this way: its @CookPolitical PVI score is R+13. #PA18 is R+11, AL is R+14. In other words, Hiral Tip… https://t.co/nJNeE8FQLA

Created

Tue Apr 24 15:11:41 +0000 2018

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Because mail ballots make up an overwhelming share of the vote in #AZ08 (maybe 80%) whereas they're tiny shares of… https://t.co/e04iZJL7FC

Created

Tue Apr 24 13:08:31 +0000 2018

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A GOP loss in #AZ08 would be genuinely shocking. That said, a good showing for Hiral Tipirneni (D) might be 43%+. T… https://t.co/wBzqtQmz3e

Created

Tue Apr 24 13:06:01 +0000 2018

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Happy #AZ08 Election Day! Reminder to people hyping this as a coin flip: Rs have a 17% voter reg advantage & lead b… https://t.co/GJcAyUqUMy

Created

Tue Apr 24 12:56:50 +0000 2018

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Breaking: #CO05 Rep. Doug Lamborn (R) thrown off GOP primary ballot, creating yet another R open seat. But Lamborn… https://t.co/p7s3sZyYj2

Created

Mon Apr 23 21:50:41 +0000 2018

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The real suspense in #AZ08: who is the 113 year old Dem voter? https://t.co/9uszLnAtBO

Created

Mon Apr 23 21:11:06 +0000 2018

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Emerson radically changes methodology *between polls* to better reflect #AZ08 early vote, finds Debbie Lesko (R) ha… https://t.co/L97EckqxXy

Created

Mon Apr 23 13:57:55 +0000 2018

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@ForecasterEnten Prof. Kimball admits in the clip that Emerson changed its methodology between polls to better inco… https://t.co/fVjyW2dnEq

Created

Mon Apr 23 13:00:32 +0000 2018

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That's likely just way too big a gap for Dems to make up w/ crossovers & Election Day (4/24). In fact, 39% of all R… https://t.co/ARLrJiG7b0

Created

Fri Apr 20 18:41:37 +0000 2018

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New #AZ08 update: 151k ballots cast (likely ~70% of total). R registrants out-voting Ds 49%-28%. Median voter age:… https://t.co/HLRSuxcray

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Fri Apr 20 18:32:03 +0000 2018

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Former top House GOP aide 👇 https://t.co/2qcpLFrUoK

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Fri Apr 20 15:57:51 +0000 2018

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Of the 199 House Rs running for reelection, only *one*: 1) took <55% in '16, 2) sits in an R+5 or less district 3)… https://t.co/yjjx1JnThM

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Fri Apr 20 15:31:45 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: Who's most vulnerable to a wave? We've updated our Risk Factors for 2018 House GOP Incumbent… https://t.co/XCuRodirtW

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Fri Apr 20 15:24:33 +0000 2018

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RT @ForecasterEnten: Special elections going Democrats' way. More House races getting pushed into their column by nonpartisan experts... an…

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Thu Apr 19 19:32:56 +0000 2018

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@BradMossEsq Sample is totally wrong...64% college+ when eligible population is 28%. Median age 55 when actual so far is 67.

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Thu Apr 19 14:31:22 +0000 2018

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#AZ08's voter reg breakdown: 41% R, 24% D, 35% Other. Votes cast so far (144k): 49% R, 28% D, 23% Other. If anythin… https://t.co/uZFZAcD1OH

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Thu Apr 19 14:26:40 +0000 2018

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What's a good showing for Hiral Tipirneni (D) in #AZ08 on Tuesday? Probably 43%-47%. Really anything above ~41% in… https://t.co/Blb3qozbpH

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Thu Apr 19 14:09:25 +0000 2018

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Emerson Polling memo: "Statistical Tie in #AZ08, Dems Positioned for Surprise Upset in the Desert." Reality check:… https://t.co/DVGujQjL79

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Thu Apr 19 14:00:47 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: 7 more races move towards Democrats following latest polls/fundraising reports. Full ratings… https://t.co/fMW1CBW1s3

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Wed Apr 18 15:06:47 +0000 2018

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@afshop All years using current locations.

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Wed Apr 18 14:55:55 +0000 2018

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Stay tuned to @CookPolitical this morning for 7 House rating changes in light of new FEC reports.

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Wed Apr 18 12:47:29 +0000 2018

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By contrast, there are only 5 Dem-held seats where the top R outraised the top D in the last quarter.… https://t.co/9SrdSCGmJs

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Wed Apr 18 12:44:56 +0000 2018

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New House FEC reports: there are at least 60 GOP-held seats where the leading D outraised leading R in the last qua… https://t.co/fadLdnUZkc

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Wed Apr 18 12:43:25 +0000 2018

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Another red flag in the Emerson poll: 64% of their sample was college+. Share of the voting age population in #AZ08… https://t.co/ZJV9rY4DSg

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Wed Apr 18 00:39:58 +0000 2018

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The main reason I'm skeptical of Emerson poll showing dead heat in #AZ08: only 51% of their sample is 55+. With 139… https://t.co/ltMDknPRlM

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Wed Apr 18 00:20:13 +0000 2018

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Any special election for Dent's seat would be held under old #PA15 lines (R+4), not new #PA07 (D+1), potentially se… https://t.co/bF7u1whRzI

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Tue Apr 17 15:43:59 +0000 2018

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What we know about #AZ08: 128k ballots have already been cast (likely over 60% of all votes), w/ R registrants lead… https://t.co/0pgiFESJE3

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Mon Apr 16 18:30:54 +0000 2018

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@SteveKornacki Would love to see voting enthusiasm numbers for each of these.

Created

Mon Apr 16 14:46:43 +0000 2018

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RT @SteveKornacki: Trump approve/disapprove (NBC/WSJ): Whites/no college degree: 52-44% White/college+: 36-61% --- White men/non-college…

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Mon Apr 16 14:46:19 +0000 2018

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@Garrett_Archer 319k seems extremely high considering total '16 vote in #AZ08 was 333k

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Mon Apr 16 14:40:16 +0000 2018

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RT @hookjan: New WSJ/NBC poll shows election-interest gap 66% of Democrats show high interest in the 2018 election. 49% of Republicans do.…

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Sun Apr 15 19:40:57 +0000 2018

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It was a politics nerd's dream come true to join Eleanor, Clarence, Tom & Pat on the @McLaughlinGroup this weekend.… https://t.co/v9a7OpZR2E

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Sun Apr 15 19:13:22 +0000 2018

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Things that deserve more attention: 1) this cycle's improbable class of 10 red state Dems is the only thing keeping… https://t.co/rwoKE3NBHE

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Fri Apr 13 23:37:12 +0000 2018

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@johnlk1980 Ohio

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Fri Apr 13 22:52:18 +0000 2018

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To clarify, this won't actually happen b/c of unique candidate/state/district dynamics. But this stat is what I was… https://t.co/eFxlKfV141

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Fri Apr 13 22:35:10 +0000 2018

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Fact: if all '18 election results were an 8% pro-Dem uniform swing vs. '16 prez results, Dems would gain 44 House s… https://t.co/xUDmkqToMV

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Fri Apr 13 22:31:58 +0000 2018

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Our new 3,947 word rundown of TX's 36 congressional races is now available to subscribers at @CookPolitical. ($) https://t.co/6YKJJL5NBW

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Fri Apr 13 17:23:36 +0000 2018

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RT @DaviSusan: House Ethics Committee announces it has closed it's inquiry into former Rep. Blake Farenthold, R-Texas, and notes that he qu…

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Thu Apr 12 22:23:13 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: Trump didn't break the Speakership - It was broken long ago. https://t.co/B0anUtvcn7

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Thu Apr 12 21:08:15 +0000 2018

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#AZ08 update: GOP's advantage holding steady at 49%-28% w/ 122k ballots returned for 4/24 special. Median voter age… https://t.co/FYkBEkExNk

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Thu Apr 12 21:07:26 +0000 2018

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RT @ForecasterEnten: Ryan's retirement is just the latest blow. I dug into race ratings at this point in the cycle since 06. Dem majority i…

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Wed Apr 11 17:03:35 +0000 2018

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Wed Apr 11 16:58:03 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: updated House Ratings, w/ #FL15 moving from Solid R to LIkely R. Overall, 96 seats "in play"… https://t.co/vo7oyqAakV

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Wed Apr 11 16:21:07 +0000 2018

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RT @cspanwj: WATCH: @SpeakerRyan reacts to his November 1998 appearance on the Washington Journal. Watch & clip Rep. Paul Ryan's C-SPAN a…

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Wed Apr 11 15:46:23 +0000 2018

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2/19: Court draws new, Dem-friendly PA congressional map 3/13: Dems pick up R+11 #PA18 in special election 4/11: Pa… https://t.co/uIKFiXNmOj

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Wed Apr 11 15:00:51 +0000 2018

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RT @CookPolitical: #WI01 moves to Lean R. @Redistrict's latest on @SpeakerRyan's retirement: https://t.co/EAc5LH4cNM

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Wed Apr 11 14:54:31 +0000 2018

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RT @Nate_Cohn: There are now more Republican retirements in potentially competitive districts than in 2006 or 2008 https://t.co/K28PGGak6t…

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Wed Apr 11 14:38:20 +0000 2018

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Overshadowed: #FL15 Rep. Dennis Ross (R) announces he's retiring after four terms. @CookPolitical PVI is R+6. Still… https://t.co/zaPkyf7NKF

Created

Wed Apr 11 14:37:35 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: Here’s @Redistrict take on Ryan retirement news. WI-01 moves to Lean R https://t.co/olGJt5qYl6

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Wed Apr 11 14:30:31 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: updated House Ratings with #WI01 jumping two columns from Solid R to Lean R. https://t.co/pRa54lLbUm

Created

Wed Apr 11 14:25:54 +0000 2018

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Breaking: GOP source close to Speaker Ryan emails March internal campaign poll showing Ryan beating Randy Bryce (D)… https://t.co/D9g6NBMGUH

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Wed Apr 11 13:51:32 +0000 2018

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Last week's YouGov poll found President Trump's favorability w/ GOP voters at 80%, Speaker Ryan's at 52%. It's clea… https://t.co/6MDHHREPIN

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Wed Apr 11 13:28:24 +0000 2018

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RT @PollsAndVotes: Ryan’s WI-01 is not an easy D pickup. Trump won it by 10.2 while winning state by 0.75. Last week the conservative state…

Created

Wed Apr 11 13:04:58 +0000 2018

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There are still 19 states where filing deadlines haven't passed, home to 58 GOP members currently running for reele… https://t.co/yMtKdY6Cep

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Wed Apr 11 13:01:35 +0000 2018

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Speaker Paul Ryan's retirement would move #WI01 from Solid R to Lean R at @CookPolitical, w/ the potential for race… https://t.co/AfLU4XMgWn

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Wed Apr 11 12:49:45 +0000 2018

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Not every day you see a Speaker up against a potential loss of majority just say "fold." Decision could wreck remai… https://t.co/5HjgqgwefV

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Wed Apr 11 12:41:31 +0000 2018

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RT @mikeallen: breaking @axios via @jonathanvswan SIREN: Ryan tells confidants he won't run again; announcement imminent https://t.co/pvb2S…

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Wed Apr 11 12:32:46 +0000 2018

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RT @nathanlgonzales: Might be the first break Republicans have had in a special election all cycle. #AZ08 https://t.co/64igSBysuV

Created

Wed Apr 11 02:42:30 +0000 2018

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NJ insiders/donors almost treating #NJ11 Mikie Sherrill (D) & #NJ02 Jeff Van Drew (D) like they're the incumbents i… https://t.co/m0nDVDtPCn

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Tue Apr 10 14:32:20 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: Shameless plug for subscribing to @CookPolitical. Since 1st wk of Jan., only one week has passed where we didn't move a rac…

Created

Mon Apr 09 19:10:08 +0000 2018

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RT @ClareMalone: What would it look like if the Russians went beyond Facebook trolls and hacked our very elections systems? I talked to exp…

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Mon Apr 09 14:14:58 +0000 2018

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@Izengabe_ We did have it at Lean D by e day

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Fri Apr 06 21:57:35 +0000 2018

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@samstein Or maybe Joseph Cao...or (deep cut) David Curson

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Fri Apr 06 21:02:19 +0000 2018

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@samstein maybe Bentivolio or Joe Walsh

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Fri Apr 06 21:00:18 +0000 2018

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Probably still the biggest fluke winner in the 11+ years I've covered House races. https://t.co/XqJUspgzSP

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Fri Apr 06 20:58:44 +0000 2018

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If you were to ask for an exemplar of a place Dems are *not* likely to surge dramatically in '18, I'd probably nominate Sun City, AZ. #AZ08

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Fri Apr 06 18:47:14 +0000 2018

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Update: w/ 83k ballots turned in, the median voter age in #AZ08 is *70.* Have a feeling this isn't the type of plac… https://t.co/bEMjoSsAaP

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Fri Apr 06 18:32:46 +0000 2018

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RT @donnermaps: With House retirement season ending, Republicans have blown away known records. Democratic numbers are about average. Since…

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Fri Apr 06 17:03:23 +0000 2018

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Created

Fri Apr 06 16:39:05 +0000 2018

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@KevinMKruse @CookPolitical Thanks. Yes, this typo will be corrected on our site.

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Fri Apr 06 14:06:14 +0000 2018

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RT @CookPolitical: Where the battle for the House stands today: https://t.co/jPHKdFuoxx

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Fri Apr 06 13:57:00 +0000 2018

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New @CookPolitical: subscribers can read our full writeups of all 13 House ratings changes. https://t.co/nHkl8kBTyk ($).

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Fri Apr 06 13:43:39 +0000 2018

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New @CookPolitical: our latest House ratings feature 55 competitive races (50 held by Rs, 5 held by Ds). Dems need… https://t.co/HeCKmRieKb

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Fri Apr 06 13:41:52 +0000 2018

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New @CookPolitical: our latest House ratings feature 55 competitive races (50 held by Rs, 5 held by Ds). Dems need… https://t.co/p0MDtDwTlp

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Fri Apr 06 13:38:01 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: Ratings changes in 13 House districts, all in Democrats' direction. Our latest House overvie… https://t.co/mF3BL3vKuO

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Fri Apr 06 13:25:02 +0000 2018

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Stay tuned to @CookPolitical this AM for 13 House rating changes.

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Fri Apr 06 06:13:32 +0000 2018

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Fun fact about #WV03 (where POTUS spoke today & where Trump-voting Richard Ojeda (D) is running for an open seat):… https://t.co/KVGI3UOJGY

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Thu Apr 05 19:46:25 +0000 2018

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RT @ForecasterEnten: A conspiracy theory is a conspiracy theory no matter who says it.

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Thu Apr 05 19:09:44 +0000 2018

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Btw, if a statewide Dem candidate were pulling 43%-45% in #AZ08, they'd probably be on their way to victory.

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Thu Apr 05 00:30:16 +0000 2018

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Considering #AZ08 has a @CookPolitical PVI of R+13 (meaning an R typically gets 63% of the vote), a good showing fo… https://t.co/d87m4BWIKJ

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Wed Apr 04 21:23:25 +0000 2018

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So far, 68% of the 55k #AZ08 early voters are 65+ years of age and 85% are 55+, w/ a median age of 71. This will dr… https://t.co/LDieRrpbmH

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Wed Apr 04 20:49:20 +0000 2018

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So far, 68% of the 55k #AZ08 early voters are 65+ years of age and 85% are 55+, w/ a median age of 71. This will dr… https://t.co/sanMyWnQbo

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Wed Apr 04 20:46:49 +0000 2018

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Rather than "the details will all get worked out later" after a SCOTUS ruling vs. partisan gerrymandering, I want t… https://t.co/EjzOSqxVRX

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Wed Apr 04 15:53:18 +0000 2018

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Many proposed tests to detect partisan gerrymandering (such as Breyer's) sound great. But they're so vague that in… https://t.co/U7V8mZSMvQ

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Wed Apr 04 15:30:29 +0000 2018

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Nonetheless, if SCOTUS does break new ground, this type of approach strikes me as a likelier outcome based on oral… https://t.co/abWrqmd6PZ

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Wed Apr 04 04:16:27 +0000 2018

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Nonetheless, if SCOTUS does break new ground, this type of approach strikes me as a likelier outcome based on oral… https://t.co/8y5NwtqIEM

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Wed Apr 04 04:16:02 +0000 2018

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Recommended thread on principles (rather than mathematical formulas) SCOTUS could adopt to detect & outlaw partisan… https://t.co/8A9xsAbcI5

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Wed Apr 04 04:05:41 +0000 2018

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@mcpli Perhaps I should've said "bright line" rather than "explicit." If you believe it can be done with principles… https://t.co/W28WJ3oRMP

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Wed Apr 04 03:03:17 +0000 2018

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I've yet to hear a clear articulation of how the Efficiency Gap could be uniformly applied to approve/reject a prop… https://t.co/jC6myISm96

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Wed Apr 04 01:09:53 +0000 2018

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Don't necessarily agree w/ this column's conclusion, but I've heard several well-intentioned reformers suggest that… https://t.co/PCRmuBxECD

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Wed Apr 04 00:44:22 +0000 2018

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The debate over partisan gerrymandering would be better served by less dwelling on its evils & more discussion abou… https://t.co/Ri5hOW06Ll

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Wed Apr 04 00:37:21 +0000 2018

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RT @mcpli: An eye-popping increase in the number of women running for the US House as Democrats in 2018. https://t.co/5Dx8ioaD9u https://t.…

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Tue Apr 03 18:15:56 +0000 2018

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Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D)'s open #CT05 will move to Likely D at @CookPolitical. https://t.co/1RGl6f1pCl

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Mon Apr 02 20:41:58 +0000 2018

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@gelliottmorris It's true candidate quality may even out and the overall seat projection could be on the mark, but… https://t.co/suGjpfZLqo

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Mon Apr 02 20:38:44 +0000 2018

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@gelliottmorris What if there were recent polls showing Valadao up by 15%+ and Bost trailing? My unsolicited advice… https://t.co/3B5kUWFZAH

Created

Mon Apr 02 20:33:38 +0000 2018

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@gelliottmorris Do you have plans to build race-by-race dynamics into this forecast? For example, you've got Valada… https://t.co/qPkm9Uy7xy

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Mon Apr 02 20:27:14 +0000 2018

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Excellent @baseballot piece on geography of Dems' overperformance in '17/'18 elections. My takeaway: Dems restoring… https://t.co/Le2wbb160c

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Mon Apr 02 15:11:24 +0000 2018

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Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D)'s #CT05 has a @CookPolitical PVI of D+2 and voted 50%-46% Clinton in 2016. Filing deadline… https://t.co/QjT5kxAv82

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Fri Mar 30 20:45:12 +0000 2018

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Please take me off your campaign's "triple match" fundraising email list. Thanks.

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Fri Mar 30 15:18:13 +0000 2018

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@ElectProject Have fun at your conference...guess I'll keep the $$.

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Thu Mar 29 19:59:33 +0000 2018

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@ElectProject Great. If you can apply it to the WI problem, I'll happily give you $7,000.

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Thu Mar 29 19:48:37 +0000 2018

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@ElectProject Then prove it! :) or else spare everyone the lecture on "how redistricting actually works"

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Thu Mar 29 19:32:41 +0000 2018

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@ElectProject Ha....that's because you can't.

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Thu Mar 29 19:27:21 +0000 2018

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@ElectProject If you'd like to split wards/precincts & draw the map out of census blocks, be my guest. The $7,000 offer still stands.

Created

Thu Mar 29 19:21:15 +0000 2018

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Update: the Hummus Tahina salad at @sweetgreen is pretty good!

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Thu Mar 29 18:34:15 +0000 2018

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It was a pleasure getting lunch today w/ GW student (and Wisconsin native!) @NicolasNevins, who came closest to win… https://t.co/Bn1iTlfhLM

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Thu Mar 29 17:30:10 +0000 2018

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@gelliottmorris @Nate_Cohn @JMilesColeman I'd argue it's problematic b/c of some races lack of competitiveness. '14… https://t.co/mL04XPHxLQ

Created

Thu Mar 29 13:43:21 +0000 2018

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@Richhomiezeker Good luck!

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Thu Mar 29 04:49:35 +0000 2018

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@Richhomiezeker Try it for yourself. If you can do it, I'll give you $7,000.

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Thu Mar 29 04:44:22 +0000 2018

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@Richhomiezeker Yes

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Thu Mar 29 04:40:07 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Dems' leading candidate in #IA03, Theresa Greenfield, announces she'll be "baking banana bread" instead o… https://t.co/uhxJVwk5H7

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Thu Mar 29 03:48:14 +0000 2018

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@mattyglesias Actually, it's not. It's a consequence of the partisan distribution of voters.

Created

Wed Mar 28 18:57:26 +0000 2018

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Here's the "proof" of mathematical impossibility, for those still confused by this riddle: To draw 6/8 D+7 distric… https://t.co/YgkCHo6eHK

Created

Wed Mar 28 18:44:22 +0000 2018

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Nice try, but actually it would still be mathematically impossible, unless there were to be wide partisan variance… https://t.co/qcXVBiePLS

Created

Wed Mar 28 18:35:56 +0000 2018

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@ElectProject Fine, go ahead

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Wed Mar 28 18:30:00 +0000 2018

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@_justinlevitt_ @ElectProject The solution, then, might be to calculate the difference between the extreme map and… https://t.co/9mwTdRy8JM

Created

Wed Mar 28 18:28:04 +0000 2018

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@Doctor_MPhD @mattyglesias If you can do it, I've still got $7,000.

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Wed Mar 28 18:24:47 +0000 2018

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@ElectProject Btw, I'm still willing to pay $7,000 for the map if you have verifiable election results at the sub-precinct level.

Created

Wed Mar 28 18:23:22 +0000 2018

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@ElectProject I don't disagree on that. "Possible" is not the same as "what would likely emerge from a partisan-blind process"

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Wed Mar 28 17:54:28 +0000 2018

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@ElectProject Within the bounds of what was possible, sure. But in PA, the median simulated map will always be to t… https://t.co/yJ1WRQYxn1

Created

Wed Mar 28 17:53:30 +0000 2018

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@ruthgreenwood @ElectProject I don't have a problem w/ anyone arguing for the maps they think are #FairMaps. But in… https://t.co/Ncq8VYADft

Created

Wed Mar 28 17:48:04 +0000 2018

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@ElectProject Ward/precinct splitting doesn't even come close to explaining the partisan asymmetry of WI's politica… https://t.co/fGoEtclBaV

Created

Wed Mar 28 17:39:49 +0000 2018

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@ElectProject Twisting my "prediction" into evidence I declared the PA court "couldn't" adopt the plan you think is… https://t.co/nLuD0RyWR1

Created

Wed Mar 28 17:36:38 +0000 2018

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@ElectProject Oh yeah? How many census blocks are split in the current WI GOP gerrymander?

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Wed Mar 28 17:33:46 +0000 2018

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@ElectProject Um, I never said anything of the sort. #strawman

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Wed Mar 28 17:32:03 +0000 2018

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Ha. This is 100% untrue. I didn't care at all about compactness in this challenge. Go ahead, divide Madison & Milwa… https://t.co/gvUdWGnN6T

Created

Wed Mar 28 17:23:31 +0000 2018

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@JoeAKendrick @mattyglesias Not true

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Wed Mar 28 17:19:23 +0000 2018

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You're not alone. Even a few well-known academics in the redistricting field have a hard time wrapping their heads… https://t.co/OpYElyPE5L

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Wed Mar 28 17:09:48 +0000 2018

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Nice work. Very close. If you ever find yourself in DC, I'll be happy to buy lunch - can't promise a $7,000 lunch,… https://t.co/Q1cyHtqGRD

Created

Wed Mar 28 15:58:34 +0000 2018

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@PoliticsWolf The irony: under your nonpartisan map, Rs would have had a great shot to win 6/8 seats in '16, which… https://t.co/27SsVVqJSG

Created

Wed Mar 28 15:35:45 +0000 2018

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@gelliottmorris Yup. D voters are more hyper-concentrated in cities/college towns than R voters (far more D+>25 pre… https://t.co/eECC0qc1Us

Created

Wed Mar 28 15:15:45 +0000 2018

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For the last 7 years, I've argued that for Dems to win the House before 2022 (post-2021 redistricting), they would… https://t.co/jwi2brFs2o

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Wed Mar 28 15:04:40 +0000 2018

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@gelliottmorris see above

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Wed Mar 28 14:57:39 +0000 2018

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The bottom line: Dems don't "deserve" to lose because they're inefficiently clustered in big cities/college towns/c… https://t.co/keFEe2Pl0C

Created

Wed Mar 28 14:51:29 +0000 2018

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Is it possible to draw maps that create lots of competitive elections & treat parties symmetrically in these places… https://t.co/J8wdLpfbi7

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Wed Mar 28 14:50:07 +0000 2018

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We could play out this exercise in dozens of states where the D vote is hyper-concentrated in cities/college towns… https://t.co/xnaSgyyGnL

Created

Wed Mar 28 14:36:14 +0000 2018

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Answer: It's easy to draw the GOP gerrymander, but the inverse Dem gerrymander isn't just hard - it's mathematicall… https://t.co/0CRu2wm1A0

Created

Wed Mar 28 14:27:01 +0000 2018

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RT @NinaTotenberg: #SCOTUS hears a 2nd extreme partisan gerrymanering case today, and for Justice Anthony Kennedy, it's "put-up or shut-up…

Created

Wed Mar 28 13:13:49 +0000 2018

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@HechtNeil Funny, it's been a day and no one has won the $7,000 yet.

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Wed Mar 28 12:38:19 +0000 2018

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@NicolasNevins This is a really valiant effort. Very close.

Created

Wed Mar 28 00:09:21 +0000 2018

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@EugeneVClemens Lets see it

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Tue Mar 27 21:34:26 +0000 2018

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@RRHElections No, b/c I have no verifiable PVI data for the sub-precinct level.

Created

Tue Mar 27 20:05:03 +0000 2018

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@ruthgreenwood @jonfavs @jonlovett Not the point. First, I'd like you to draw the D plan, then we'll talk :)

Created

Tue Mar 27 20:02:48 +0000 2018

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It's been 5 hours and my $7,000 is still up for grabs. https://t.co/q24WlSz7k0

Created

Tue Mar 27 19:51:40 +0000 2018

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By our estimates, Dems need to win ~7% more House votes than Republicans to win an equal number of seats this Novem… https://t.co/OuPSrVCplw

Created

Tue Mar 27 17:49:46 +0000 2018

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@trowaman @Nate_Cohn Where I take exception is when people talk about gerrymandering as if it's the exclusive reaso… https://t.co/5dG7hXpFrm

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Tue Mar 27 17:42:41 +0000 2018

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@trowaman @Nate_Cohn Well, actually, I agree.

Created

Tue Mar 27 17:39:56 +0000 2018

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1) I don't think this is what the @BrennanCenter report is concluding and 2) the report's assertion that Dems need… https://t.co/GngIo0LAhB

Created

Tue Mar 27 16:53:42 +0000 2018

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RT @Nate_Cohn: Something to watch in terms of the popular vote threshold Dems will need to take the House: uncontested races. Right now, lo…

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Tue Mar 27 15:59:27 +0000 2018

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@panininef yes, it's for real. i'm ready to pay.

Created

Tue Mar 27 15:33:48 +0000 2018

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@caaarollliiina @jonfavs @jonlovett @ruthgreenwood yes, it's for real

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Tue Mar 27 15:30:27 +0000 2018

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@samburgerofil No restrictions other than contiguity and equal population

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Tue Mar 27 15:12:00 +0000 2018

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@doctormazda sure

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Tue Mar 27 15:10:11 +0000 2018

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@ruthgreenwood @jonlovett cc:

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Tue Mar 27 15:06:10 +0000 2018

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Btw, I picked WI in honor of the upcoming SCOTUS decision. And no, I don't care about compactness. You can split Ma… https://t.co/BvvAXJz5oQ

Created

Tue Mar 27 14:53:56 +0000 2018

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To participate, visit https://t.co/Hm1mgSHdjo, and use v. 2.2, which allows you to calculate PVI in real time as yo… https://t.co/cuvW2eAK6A

Created

Tue Mar 27 14:50:24 +0000 2018

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Twitter challenge: Wisconsin has a partisanship score (PVI) of EVEN. Below, I've drawn a GOP gerrymander where 6/8… https://t.co/dW2CWEZuO5

Created

Tue Mar 27 14:42:10 +0000 2018

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@trwilson99 Ok, you try then

Created

Tue Mar 27 04:59:44 +0000 2018

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@mlatner Ok, lets see your map

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Tue Mar 27 04:55:59 +0000 2018

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This is a great example of how a state's political geography can be biased against one party: in WI, it's possible… https://t.co/PpNS74PK4t

Created

Tue Mar 27 03:52:22 +0000 2018

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RT @ClareMalone: This is a big deal—there are very real worries that asking the citizenship question will lead to an inaccurate Census coun…

Created

Tue Mar 27 02:35:11 +0000 2018

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RT @mcpli: BREAKING: Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross sends letter stating that citizenship question will be reinstated on the 2020 Census. h…

Created

Tue Mar 27 01:44:34 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: One reason why media gets low ratings: non-stop coverage of Stormy Daniels, little to none on top issue for Americans - hea…

Created

Tue Mar 27 01:25:18 +0000 2018

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If anything, people forget how reluctantly Ryan took the speaker's job in 2015. And, how little he could have imagi… https://t.co/PTbWGsH4mA

Created

Mon Mar 26 22:29:40 +0000 2018

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@jonlovett Drawing districts that are convex rather than concave & avoid splitting existing county/municipal boundaries more than necessary.

Created

Mon Mar 26 22:08:09 +0000 2018

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If you don't care about compactness, you can. That's fine. But one of the main arguments against GOP's PA gerrymand… https://t.co/nzIMEi7GLt

Created

Mon Mar 26 22:05:39 +0000 2018

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Maybe this illustration will help: WI was basically tied in 2016. It's really easy to draw a compact 6-2 Trump CD m… https://t.co/srXYFZ3fVF

Created

Mon Mar 26 22:03:14 +0000 2018

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In the last midterms (2014), Rs won 5.7% more votes for House than Ds and 13.6% more seats, a difference of 7.9%.… https://t.co/OdYyi51iDu

Created

Mon Mar 26 20:07:07 +0000 2018

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That is also...very incorrect. If Dems win the House popular vote by 10% and fail to take back the House, I'll buy… https://t.co/YzdoH3wfmg

Created

Mon Mar 26 19:54:16 +0000 2018

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@mattyglesias @Nate_Cohn I'd estimate 7-8%

Created

Mon Mar 26 17:00:29 +0000 2018

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RT @Nate_Cohn: I don't think it is credible to contend that the Democrats need to win the House popular vote by a double digit margin to be…

Created

Mon Mar 26 16:59:36 +0000 2018

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BTW, Dems have strong '18 pickup opportunities on most of these "extreme" maps. These R maps were drawn in 2011. No… https://t.co/3vOv854qUO

Created

Mon Mar 26 16:51:08 +0000 2018

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It's possible to make the case other states are "mild" GOP gerrymanders. But there are also a few states w/ Dem ger… https://t.co/7OJ6pAQdtD

Created

Mon Mar 26 16:44:02 +0000 2018

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Here's an exercise: what % of 2018 House elections will be held in states w/ "extreme" GOP gerrymanders still in pl… https://t.co/qsPeGtmKdo

Created

Mon Mar 26 16:37:46 +0000 2018

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No. Dems' problem is that they're winning a few urban districts by 60%-70% and losing many more suburban seats by s… https://t.co/8rMvRieaQ7

Created

Mon Mar 26 16:16:00 +0000 2018

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Lastly, I'm well aware we've debated this a million times & I'll be criticized/ratio'd for arguing gerrymandering's… https://t.co/CxdnOJPCPU

Created

Mon Mar 26 16:12:37 +0000 2018

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3) In the past 3 elections, Dems have won ~4% fewer seats than votes. We estimate Dems would need to win House popu… https://t.co/CiN0GsSUGS

Created

Mon Mar 26 16:02:13 +0000 2018

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2) It isn't so much "technology and data-fueled 21st century gerrymandering" that's enhanced the effectiveness of p… https://t.co/3G0kH1zA4D

Created

Mon Mar 26 15:58:38 +0000 2018

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1) It's always misleading to cite "extreme gerrymandering" as an obstacle to Dems retaking House without citing the… https://t.co/g3MAhri2Mj

Created

Mon Mar 26 15:55:16 +0000 2018

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A few thoughts on this by @mcpli & @lauraroyden, whose work I respect & frequently rely on... https://t.co/cvCXaRt2iu

Created

Mon Mar 26 15:46:15 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: With PA-06 moving from Toss-Up to Likely D, there are now 8 R-held seats in Lean-Likely D. And another 21 R-held seats in T…

Created

Mon Mar 26 15:42:54 +0000 2018

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#PA06 will be moving from Toss Up to Likely Dem at @CookPolitical. https://t.co/QxTSoCtVVZ

Created

Sun Mar 25 23:59:47 +0000 2018

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If this happens (as we hinted in @CookPolitical yesterday), #PA06 could become a true lost cause for GOP. https://t.co/TXJdYcEyqC

Created

Sat Mar 24 21:08:25 +0000 2018

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Read @Amyewalter's latest: Deja Vu All Over Again. Health Care Takes Center Stage in 2018 Campaigns https://t.co/L3Y6jGq5IO

Created

Thu Mar 22 19:36:04 +0000 2018

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If he wins the Dem primary, he might attract some Rs & repel many Ds. If he loses the primary to a very liberal can… https://t.co/w898Do4C6i

Created

Thu Mar 22 14:41:14 +0000 2018

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Here's an example: Dems should have a golden opportunity to pick up Rep. Charlie Dent (R)'s open seat in #PA07 (D+1… https://t.co/2589kYFobs

Created

Thu Mar 22 14:36:16 +0000 2018

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At the moment, there are all kinds of fancy models flying around projecting out the relationship b/t national polls… https://t.co/9SLnMmQyWp

Created

Thu Mar 22 14:29:32 +0000 2018

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The only path left for GOP to keep its House majority involves some combo of these two things: a) Generic ballot d… https://t.co/gJItAvvRP9

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Thu Mar 22 14:28:28 +0000 2018

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@SeanTrende So are parts of VA. But we didn't see Dems massively overperform in HoD races in the far southwest of VA, for example.

Created

Thu Mar 22 13:48:18 +0000 2018

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True of congressional specials, of which we don't have a very large data set. Also true that the most staggering De… https://t.co/0yxD5eRSjp

Created

Thu Mar 22 13:24:40 +0000 2018

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Taken together, off-year results suggest: a) Dems enjoy an intensity gap that looks like '10/'14 in reverse b) Dem… https://t.co/m9z4a3GY3K

Created

Wed Mar 21 19:43:26 +0000 2018

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But congressional specials have been powerful indicators too: they've been federal, high $$ fights w/ generally awf… https://t.co/YtGsyxWu7F

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Wed Mar 21 19:37:34 +0000 2018

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IMHO, the most telling off-year results for 11/18 purposes have been VA's HoD races, which featured: a) GOP incumb… https://t.co/m0UPoO4g9z

Created

Wed Mar 21 19:26:20 +0000 2018

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@NateSilver538 @SeanTrende @Barnes_Law @henryolsenEPPC @ForecasterEnten @Nate_Cohn @djjohnso @Peoples_Pundit… https://t.co/3u0hKn4oJb

Created

Wed Mar 21 18:40:27 +0000 2018

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@NateSilver538 @SeanTrende @Barnes_Law @henryolsenEPPC @ForecasterEnten @Nate_Cohn @djjohnso @Peoples_Pundit… https://t.co/UHjiHPVwkg

Created

Wed Mar 21 18:23:24 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Sean Casten (D) takes lead over Kelly Mazeski (D) by 616 votes in #IL06 primary. Looking like it'll be Ca… https://t.co/etjVO5Swsc

Created

Wed Mar 21 06:54:30 +0000 2018

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This could be a mild setback for Dems' chances of defeating Rep. Peter Roskam (R) in #IL06, a CD that voted for Cli… https://t.co/w4T7wv5lZd

Created

Wed Mar 21 05:49:30 +0000 2018

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DuPage Co. appears to have taken a break from counting, but there could easily be another 5-10k votes left to count… https://t.co/PtA7cide78

Created

Wed Mar 21 05:47:44 +0000 2018

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If both #IL03 Newman (D) and #IL06 Mazeski (D) lose their primaries, it would be a rough night in the Chicago burbs… https://t.co/bCw8238xnZ

Created

Wed Mar 21 05:25:59 +0000 2018

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Mazeski (D) lead over Casten (D) falls to just 260 votes w/ 91 DuPage precincts left to count. Casten increasingly… https://t.co/yGPN00WdRf

Created

Wed Mar 21 05:18:41 +0000 2018

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Mazeski (D) lead down to 683 votes w/ 103 DuPage precincts left to go in #IL06.

Created

Wed Mar 21 05:04:32 +0000 2018

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Another 14 DuPage Co. precincts cut Mazeski (D) lead from 760 to 724 in #IL06. Still 120 precincts left to count.

Created

Wed Mar 21 04:51:20 +0000 2018

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Another 28 DuPage Co. precincts cut Mazeski (D)'s lead over Casten (D) from 976 to 760 votes in #IL06. Still anothe… https://t.co/ysbUenzZD5

Created

Wed Mar 21 04:27:30 +0000 2018

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To be clear, I'm not saying Mazeski (D) or Casten (D) is more electable than the other, but #IL06 Rep. Peter Roskam… https://t.co/xtvPsVUEVt

Created

Wed Mar 21 04:20:32 +0000 2018

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In #IL06, Kelly Mazeski (D) clinging to 976 vote lead (2.4%) over Sean Casten (D) with 162 precincts in DuPage Co.… https://t.co/2D9OgVEnH9

Created

Wed Mar 21 04:13:14 +0000 2018

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RT @RepBrendanBoyle: It’s important if you ever run for office and lose that on election night you congratulate your opponent, thank your v…

Created

Wed Mar 21 04:01:31 +0000 2018

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In #IL06, Sean Casten (D) closing gap vs. Kelly Mazeski (D) quickly w/ strong performance in Downers Grove, his hom… https://t.co/ijU8YiyiAw

Created

Wed Mar 21 03:53:36 +0000 2018

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P.S. please stop writing about Lipinski's general election opponent, who is so irrelevant to the 11/6 #IL03 race th… https://t.co/TGudul604M

Created

Wed Mar 21 03:36:16 +0000 2018

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Projection: Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) turns back primary challenge from Marie Newman (D) in #IL03, virtually assuring him another term.

Created

Wed Mar 21 03:22:32 +0000 2018

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Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D) wins nomination against Rep. Rodney Davis (R) in downstate #IL13. For now,… https://t.co/e31YCiNQwM

Created

Wed Mar 21 03:08:42 +0000 2018

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Rauner (R) & Lipinski (D) both looking like they'll barely hang on. #ILGOV #IL03

Created

Wed Mar 21 02:51:57 +0000 2018

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Lipinski's 4,090 vote margin in the city of Chicago is making all the difference in the #IL03 primary at the moment… https://t.co/SukT8BC3Y7

Created

Wed Mar 21 02:28:05 +0000 2018

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In #IL06, first few McHenry Co. precincts give Kelly Mazeski (D) a 19% lead over Sean Casten (D). Not many votes th… https://t.co/v2uyhfJBa0

Created

Wed Mar 21 02:20:47 +0000 2018

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Now corrected: Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) still leads Marie Newman (D) by 1.8% w/ 87% reporting. Newman now needs someth… https://t.co/iiVVjzQ4vT

Created

Wed Mar 21 02:18:19 +0000 2018

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AP has Marie Newman (D) surging ahead of Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) by 1,562 votes (1.9%), but I'm not so sure. Could be… https://t.co/WVL0NNRdXU

Created

Wed Mar 21 02:16:27 +0000 2018

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Actually, the most R district held by a D is still #MN07, Rep. Collin Peterson (D). PVI R+12 (#PA18 is R+11). Most… https://t.co/sHPNLRtMcX

Created

Wed Mar 21 02:14:34 +0000 2018

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With 81% reporting, Rep. Dan Lipinski (D)'s lead over Marie Newman (D) down to 2.2%. Newman needs better numbers in… https://t.co/TR6xlRsIe3

Created

Wed Mar 21 02:07:36 +0000 2018

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With 78% reporting, Rep. Dan Lipinski (D)'s lead over Marie Newman (D) down to 2.5%. Going down to the wire, but Li… https://t.co/f8zzdiG6Hm

Created

Wed Mar 21 01:50:48 +0000 2018

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I'd argue it's safer for Dems than its PVI of D+6 b/c there are an awful lot of Trump Democrats in this part of Chi… https://t.co/f1hoScSEay

Created

Wed Mar 21 01:38:52 +0000 2018

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With 74% reporting, Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) lead down to 3.0%. 80% of his Chicago base reporting, so Marie Newman (D)… https://t.co/7ptlm4qWCD

Created

Wed Mar 21 01:37:50 +0000 2018

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Eek, may have to take this back in #IL06. Sean Casten (D), who benefited from some late outside spending, doing sur… https://t.co/c1ZVSGZ0mv

Created

Wed Mar 21 01:31:13 +0000 2018

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With 73% of precincts reporting, Lipinski's lead holding steady at 4.5%. Slightly more suburban precincts remaining… https://t.co/BcAVz5Gm23

Created

Wed Mar 21 01:21:35 +0000 2018

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With about half the vote counted in the Cook Co. suburbs, Newman (D) leading there w/ 51%. Still looking very close overall. #IL03

Created

Wed Mar 21 01:02:43 +0000 2018

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Rep. Dan Lipinski (D)'s lead down to 5.3% w/ 54% of precincts reporting, including a lot of his home base. Still lo… https://t.co/w2a6lq1XQP

Created

Wed Mar 21 01:01:03 +0000 2018

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Now 65% of Chicago's #IL03 precincts are reporting and Lipinski's share down to 57%. That may or may not be good en… https://t.co/MAFJnZqOIg

Created

Wed Mar 21 00:57:16 +0000 2018

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Projection: Chuy Garcia (D) wins #IL04 primary, defeating Sol Flores (D). Virtually assures him a seat in Congress in November.

Created

Wed Mar 21 00:49:54 +0000 2018

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It looks like Lipinski's good Cook Co. showing so far is all from the city of Chicago, which could include the ward… https://t.co/0Af61jiAuW

Created

Wed Mar 21 00:48:54 +0000 2018

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So far, Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) winning 60% in Cook Co. but just 41% in Will Co. We won't really know what's up until… https://t.co/wMR9fvQlXc

Created

Wed Mar 21 00:47:05 +0000 2018

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Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) may have the opposite problem. A lot of the Catholic, culturally conservative Dems who used t… https://t.co/E3kBUCJfL5

Created

Wed Mar 21 00:44:32 +0000 2018

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There's a new name for social moderates who used to vote in GOP primaries: Democrats. Turns out that's a slight pro… https://t.co/zhbIHiXOZP

Created

Wed Mar 21 00:42:24 +0000 2018

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Biss not surprisingly a hit w/ Champaign's progressives, but otherwise Pritzker looks like he's in good shape. #ILGOV

Created

Wed Mar 21 00:40:37 +0000 2018

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So far these Rauner numbers are looking pretty reminiscent of Gillespie/Stewart early on #VAGOV primary night last June.

Created

Wed Mar 21 00:29:36 +0000 2018

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First results show EMILY's List-backed Lauren Underwood (D) totally cruising in #IL14 primary w/ 61%. Could turn in… https://t.co/SGhvPKMjq4

Created

Wed Mar 21 00:24:25 +0000 2018

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These bursting generation/education gaps in party ID are pretty astounding. Big problem for Rs: '18 electorate on p… https://t.co/KNlO3QztRi

Created

Wed Mar 21 00:21:37 +0000 2018

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If Marie Newman (D) prevails, don't call it the start of some progressive wave about to topple the Dem "establishme… https://t.co/cnTdniduLn

Created

Tue Mar 20 22:46:05 +0000 2018

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That said, #IL03 is an old-school Chicago, Dem machine CD where his family name (and family) could still help him a… https://t.co/Biipq9GXEz

Created

Tue Mar 20 22:41:45 +0000 2018

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A few thoughts on tonight's #IL03 primary: Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) has long been holding this D+6 seat on borrowed ti… https://t.co/UKAatJ4Qla

Created

Tue Mar 20 22:39:13 +0000 2018

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Translation: a Philly/Delco Dem could get a guaranteed ticket to Congress with less than 20% of the vote in the May… https://t.co/vIBC6rlV3k

Created

Tue Mar 20 21:01:59 +0000 2018

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How could otherwise viable Democrats blow competitive races in a year as great for them as '18? Here's one way: https://t.co/jpVUeaTcku

Created

Tue Mar 20 18:00:11 +0000 2018

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RT @JonathanTamari: All the news from PA filing day: Costello files to run. Lamb files vs Rothfus. ELEVEN Dems seeking for Meehan's seat +…

Created

Tue Mar 20 17:50:55 +0000 2018

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As a result of PA's new map & Conor Lamb's #PA18 win, there are now 25 Republicans sitting in districts carried by… https://t.co/GbSIq0eMB2

Created

Mon Mar 19 21:31:14 +0000 2018

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The new PA map is a done deal. Under new lines, Dems have excellent chance to pick up 3-5 seats in addition to Lamb… https://t.co/1KIc69n249

Created

Mon Mar 19 19:37:38 +0000 2018

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RT @allymutnick: Siren in #IA03: Theresa Greenfield is a top Dem recruit to take on @RepDavidYoung https://t.co/KO0OExKVQt

Created

Mon Mar 19 19:13:09 +0000 2018

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There's no such thing as a "serious" primary challenge to Trump. His takeover of the GOP is complete. If you cross… https://t.co/H6KuX19pvz

Created

Mon Mar 19 11:35:08 +0000 2018

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Why Republicans must be wary of 8/7 #OH12 special (R+7 @CookPolitical PVI) becoming as problematic at #PA18 (R+11)… https://t.co/TlMAQuvI2Q

Created

Fri Mar 16 13:51:53 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: 10 House ratings changes following #PA18 result. Full new ratings here:… https://t.co/rLxnEDrKvL

Created

Fri Mar 16 13:47:15 +0000 2018

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Remember, though: this doesn't mean Dems are about to win 80+ seats. It's much easier for Dems to win impressive %s… https://t.co/cbpCOClHhv

Created

Thu Mar 15 21:02:13 +0000 2018

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Dems have outpaced their "typical" share of the vote (as estimated using @CookPolitical PVI) by an average of 9% in… https://t.co/9el4S8WUmP

Created

Thu Mar 15 20:57:22 +0000 2018

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As @gelliottmorris is aware, it's difficult to assess what % of '16 Dem/GOP voters actually turned out yesterday wi… https://t.co/Sm4UJ8jOKa

Created

Wed Mar 14 16:06:54 +0000 2018

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Very cool charts. But caution: the Dem/GOP turnout differential wasn't quite this large. A big element in #PA18 out… https://t.co/LLx8osgDGf

Created

Wed Mar 14 16:01:13 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: The good news for Rs: many GOP incumbents are tested & well-established in their CDs. The bad news: there are 17 open CDs t…

Created

Wed Mar 14 15:46:43 +0000 2018

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It's close elections like these when it's worth taking a minute to appreciate the hard work & long hours thousands… https://t.co/UX2o2pnQ7Z

Created

Wed Mar 14 15:11:39 +0000 2018

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Pennsylvania result another blow to GOP's November House prospects https://t.co/wrL2zrm8sk

Created

Wed Mar 14 14:48:39 +0000 2018

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I can't remember the last time a PA congressional candidate lost the Election Day vote and won with absentees. Cono… https://t.co/pKU8gCVQPL

Created

Wed Mar 14 14:41:35 +0000 2018

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@djlavoie Because absentees have always skewed more Dem

Created

Wed Mar 14 14:30:48 +0000 2018

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Not a surprise: Lamb (D) expanded lead with Washington Co. absentees. Hard to see why Rs would want to drag this ou… https://t.co/2UJwqfVIKX

Created

Wed Mar 14 14:28:11 +0000 2018

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@KSoltisAnderson Clairton was carved out of #PA18 on purpose in the 2011 map.

Created

Wed Mar 14 05:33:19 +0000 2018

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Most fitting #PA18 result of the night? Midway, PA (Washington Co.): Lamb (D) 108 Saccone (R) 108

Created

Wed Mar 14 05:19:29 +0000 2018

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Breaking: @VaughnHillyard reporting Rick Saccone (R) plans to file to run in new #PA14 next week. Very possible bot… https://t.co/kUNVbkDM4j

Created

Wed Mar 14 05:10:36 +0000 2018

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I've gotta hand it to the @UpshotNYT/@Nate_Cohn crew tonight, who predicted a turnout of 228k. We're at 227,015 vot… https://t.co/cTeE9Btw2U

Created

Wed Mar 14 04:55:13 +0000 2018

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Hard to see how Conor Lamb (D) wouldn't start out as the favorite vs. Rep. Keith Rothfus (R) in new #PA17. It's a f… https://t.co/93jH4dU8VT

Created

Wed Mar 14 04:52:10 +0000 2018

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UPDATE: Here's what Lamb (D) got in each #PA18 county (two-party vote): Allegheny: 58% Greene: 42% Washington: 46%… https://t.co/K5NbIk8tdO

Created

Wed Mar 14 04:44:19 +0000 2018

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In other words, his gains were fairly consistent over @CookPolitical PVI. ;) https://t.co/nhxU1FjRMN

Created

Wed Mar 14 04:37:03 +0000 2018

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RT @NateSilver538: There are exceptions (e.g. Roy Moore) but most of the time the "bad candidate" label is applied as a somewhat lazy post-…

Created

Wed Mar 14 04:29:51 +0000 2018

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RT @JMilesColeman: Why is #PA18 so close? Lamb held 122 Clinton precincts, plus is flipping 172 Trump precincts. Not surprisingly, there we…

Created

Wed Mar 14 04:10:55 +0000 2018

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Libertarian Drew Miller's vote total, currently 1,372, will almost certainly exceed Lamb (D)'s margin of victory (a… https://t.co/9YenbD7hOM

Created

Wed Mar 14 04:06:17 +0000 2018

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According to a source, one of the outstanding precincts (N. Ligonier, Westmoreland Co.) voted Saccone (R) 479-285.… https://t.co/HHpBPSMQxG

Created

Wed Mar 14 03:50:52 +0000 2018

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Story of the result: Lamb (D) & Saccone (R) both hit roughly the %s they needed in each county of #PA18. But here's… https://t.co/jvW8fAE8Nb

Created

Wed Mar 14 03:47:31 +0000 2018

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It's very possible (even likely) that Saccone (R) won the #PA18 Election Day vote. But barring an error, absentees… https://t.co/YaAFP0PIzy

Created

Wed Mar 14 03:30:50 +0000 2018

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Safer for #PA18 to be a midnight oil burner than a barnburner. https://t.co/G37614dX0S

Created

Wed Mar 14 03:27:56 +0000 2018

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RT @Nate_Cohn: [email protected] says last two Westmoreland precincts are Latrobe2 and NLigonier. Saccone could reasonably hope for net-200…

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Wed Mar 14 03:16:26 +0000 2018

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Projection: Barring a major tabulation error, Conor Lamb (D) has defeated Rick Saccone (R) in #PA18.

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Wed Mar 14 03:15:19 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Lamb (D) won 57% of the Allegheny Co. election day vote, but 62% of its absentees. That bodes really well… https://t.co/e6GC4FIgHj

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Wed Mar 14 03:13:09 +0000 2018

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BREAKING: Allegheny Co. absentees break 1,930 to 1,178 for Lamb (D). Lamb now up 847 votes (0.4%) w/ 2 precincts le… https://t.co/423ezlKgzX

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Wed Mar 14 03:10:30 +0000 2018

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It looks like the latest vote surge that put Lamb (D) up by 845 was from Allegheny, not remaining Westmoreland precincts. Am I wrong? #PA18

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Wed Mar 14 03:08:11 +0000 2018

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Ok, so...this wasn't the best prediction I've ever made. #PA18 https://t.co/67GzKdEMVo

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Wed Mar 14 03:05:05 +0000 2018

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UPDATE: Lamb (D) lead down to 95 votes (0.04%), with two Westmoreland Co. precincts outstanding. Still, assuming no… https://t.co/jE7hYkyYt5

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Wed Mar 14 02:59:05 +0000 2018

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Democrats don't have a clear leader. That's also one of the best things going for them in 2018: the face of the par… https://t.co/YyXFEJ6v0n

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Wed Mar 14 02:56:52 +0000 2018

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Also, don't lose sight of how Conor Lamb (D) was able to do so well tonight. When the opposite party's president is… https://t.co/Ix0uvkVJ1M

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Wed Mar 14 02:52:13 +0000 2018

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Sorry, but a Dem probably winning a CD Trump won by 19.6% is a *really* big deal. Result will hugely impact not onl… https://t.co/4xvbP2rXmE

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Wed Mar 14 02:45:30 +0000 2018

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This #PA18 situation is crazy: not only is a recount possible, but Lamb (D) & Saccone (R) must decide which distric… https://t.co/qXdhYh4iVs

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Wed Mar 14 02:33:58 +0000 2018

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Lamb (D) should expect a pretty healthy boost from uncounted absentees. Why? 1) They've historically skewed Dem 2)… https://t.co/533BN1MCxP

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Wed Mar 14 02:29:31 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Elizabeth Twp District 2 just came in and cut Lamb's lead by 170 votes. Lamb (D) lead down to 585 votes (… https://t.co/PTI2S406Ux

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Wed Mar 14 02:25:46 +0000 2018

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It's been reported that there were about 6-7k absentees cast in #PA18. In the past, absentees have run slightly mor… https://t.co/GMN8oB18Oc

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Wed Mar 14 02:23:39 +0000 2018

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One of the 7 outstanding Allegheny Co. precincts, Elizabeth Twp. #2, went for Trump 652-320 and is prime Saccone (R… https://t.co/v0OufOVqYx

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Wed Mar 14 02:19:21 +0000 2018

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Lamb (D) lead back down to 918 votes (0.4%) w/ 99% of Westmoreland now in. That's probably not the boost Saccone (R… https://t.co/epTrUkh15O

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Wed Mar 14 02:15:24 +0000 2018

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Lamb (D) up 1,238 votes w/ 96% of precincts counted. Of the 25 outstanding precincts, 18 are in Washington/Westmore… https://t.co/wXCcInfwL1

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Wed Mar 14 02:10:33 +0000 2018

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Another few Allegheny precincts just came in and went 929-823 for Lamb (D) (98% reporting there). A few Bethel Park… https://t.co/Gk3snYu78g

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Wed Mar 14 02:06:38 +0000 2018

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The odds are still very slightly in favor of Lamb (D) finishing w/ more votes tonight, but probably by less than 1k… https://t.co/qFp5eWIYFr

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Wed Mar 14 02:02:19 +0000 2018

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UPDATE: Lamb (D) lead falls to 928 votes (0.4%) w/ 95% of precincts reporting. Nearly all Westmoreland in. The rema… https://t.co/DJEEUiUmWD

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Wed Mar 14 01:56:38 +0000 2018

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Lamb (D) lead falls to 1,976 w/ 91% reporting. Remaining precincts still *slightly* favorable to Saccone (R). #PA18

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Wed Mar 14 01:54:12 +0000 2018

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Needless to say, the fact #PA18 is headed for a photo finish is pretty bad news for Republicans nationally.

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Wed Mar 14 01:49:47 +0000 2018

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Lamb (D) lead down to 2,493 votes (1.4%) w/ 87% of precincts reporting. The remaining precincts lean *slightly* Sac… https://t.co/NJzU0GOlfa

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Wed Mar 14 01:46:35 +0000 2018

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The 9% of Allegheny Co. that's still out is still *really* important...and actually, it could be favorable to Sacco… https://t.co/3XJEzJgMDM

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Wed Mar 14 01:44:02 +0000 2018

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We're headed for a photo finish, folks. Lamb (D) still the favorite by a hair. #PA18

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Wed Mar 14 01:40:14 +0000 2018

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Breaking: 100% of Greene Co. now reporting. Final precinct there pushed Lamb (D) up to 42. That's 1% above what tho… https://t.co/qoc0B5Wf9X

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Wed Mar 14 01:39:00 +0000 2018

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Breaking: Westmoreland just jumped up to 77% reporting. Lamb (D) holding steady there at 43%. That's right about wh… https://t.co/wQmlz7BPRz

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Wed Mar 14 01:36:49 +0000 2018

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With 95% of Greene Co. reporting... guess where Lamb (D)'s at there? 41%. https://t.co/lgjMfODDbh

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Wed Mar 14 01:34:15 +0000 2018

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Right now, all the counties are breaking as they would in a tied #PA18 outcome. The reason I might but a thumb on t… https://t.co/YKtdBC4ehz

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Wed Mar 14 01:30:41 +0000 2018

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Quite possible at this point. https://t.co/okxtIAniUy

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Wed Mar 14 01:26:26 +0000 2018

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What Saccone (R) really needs is a big boost from the remaining Washington Co. precincts. His % should improve there as more report. #PA18

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Wed Mar 14 01:26:03 +0000 2018

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So far, Lamb (D) is doing well enough in Westmoreland to pull this out: he's above 43% w/ 53% of precincts reportin… https://t.co/YzYfYlBDnY

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Wed Mar 14 01:24:06 +0000 2018

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I'd still maybe rather be Lamb (D) but this is a *very* close special. #PA18

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Wed Mar 14 01:16:02 +0000 2018

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Lamb (D) doing maybe a hair better than he needs to do in Allegheny precincts & turnout pretty robust there. Saccon… https://t.co/gVzfjRnx0x

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Wed Mar 14 01:08:10 +0000 2018

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A lot of what we're seeing in Allegheny right now are Lamb's best precincts. Looking really close & we won't have a… https://t.co/Kmzm6m72Nq

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Wed Mar 14 01:02:31 +0000 2018

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Face value those numbers look good for Lamb, but they're also from central Washington Co., which is the most Dem-fr… https://t.co/14DqGHJzfU

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Wed Mar 14 00:55:46 +0000 2018

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Just in...Moon Township #6: 2016: Trump +15.2% 2018: Saccone +5.2% That's where Trump was the other night and it'… https://t.co/8SYAA4YuQ4

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Wed Mar 14 00:54:18 +0000 2018

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The most GOP-heavy Allegheny precinct that's reported so far (Jefferson Hills) is only at 54.7% of its 2016 turnout… https://t.co/T4ZuMSIdIc

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Wed Mar 14 00:49:01 +0000 2018

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Rick Saccone (R) better hope that he beats expectations in Westmoreland, otherwise tough to see a route for him to… https://t.co/6QvGsGCPU4

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Wed Mar 14 00:44:59 +0000 2018

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Just in...Scott Township 2-2 (Allegheny Co.): 2016: Clinton (D) +9.2% 2018: Lamb (D) +30.2% Lamb is exceeding wha… https://t.co/LUI9nrYsZJ

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Wed Mar 14 00:43:26 +0000 2018

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More good news for Lamb. Bridgeville precinct 2 (Allegheny Co.): 2016: Clinton (D) +0.5% 2018: Lamb (D) +25.3% La… https://t.co/d4HOEROYl9

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Wed Mar 14 00:37:11 +0000 2018

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First 2 precincts in Greene Co. give Lamb (D) a 212-196 lead. Clinton (D) didn't come close to winning a single pre… https://t.co/TiEgwfNFdB

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Wed Mar 14 00:34:26 +0000 2018

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That's right about on pace for a very tight contest. But we have to wait to see what the swings are like elsewhere. #PA18

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Wed Mar 14 00:32:12 +0000 2018

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Breaking: first precinct IN! Pleasant Hills (Allegheny Co.) district 6. 2016: Trump (R) +14.9% 2018: Lamb (D) +5.5%

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Wed Mar 14 00:29:41 +0000 2018

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Another thing we'll be watching for as results come in: is there a big turnout differential between Allegheny (pro-… https://t.co/qBs8QuELLr

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Wed Mar 14 00:15:21 +0000 2018

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ICYMI: Here's what I'd estimate Conor Lamb (D) needs in each #PA18 county to win tonight: Allegheny: 58% Greene: 4… https://t.co/jQvujHwWt9

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Wed Mar 14 00:08:03 +0000 2018

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It's go time, #PA18. Let's see some precincts.

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Wed Mar 14 00:01:23 +0000 2018

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Tonight's outcome will reverberate beyond PA's 18th district https://t.co/ocCt0vf4E8 via @nbcnews

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Tue Mar 13 22:28:48 +0000 2018

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Have a feeling tonight won't be *that* late a night. There are extremely few early/absentee votes in PA, meaning we… https://t.co/luAQCGmO4Y

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Tue Mar 13 21:43:03 +0000 2018

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Been wondering this too. Btw (unrelated): current #PA18 is an often-overlooked GOP gerrymander, artfully slithering… https://t.co/S6IXW4lQX2

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Tue Mar 13 21:00:06 +0000 2018

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A much bigger potential problem for GOP: #OH12 special on 8/7.

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Tue Mar 13 15:19:55 +0000 2018

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If Dems win #PA18 tonight, some will turn their gaze to the 4/24 #AZ08 special for Trent Franks'a seat, another Tru… https://t.co/01DwgZE49O

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Tue Mar 13 15:13:23 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: The ‘Saccone is terrible candidate’ excuse is silly. He’s no rock star but he’s also no Roy Moore

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Tue Mar 13 14:53:06 +0000 2018

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@SalenaZito Umm... https://t.co/ZOKjuBfHsu

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Tue Mar 13 13:53:57 +0000 2018

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But the outcome also has much larger implications for party messaging. If GOP can't sell tax cuts effectively in a… https://t.co/iO62Kp5h6s

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Mon Mar 12 20:58:27 +0000 2018

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If Lamb (D) wins, he'll be in a much stronger position to take on Rep. Keith Rothfus (R) in #PA17 in the fall (in f… https://t.co/gIhwfOhWNJ

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Mon Mar 12 20:55:36 +0000 2018

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Beware downplaying of #PA18 as a special for a district that's "going extinct." Tomorrow's outcome matters a great… https://t.co/PDIq5IhEGh

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Mon Mar 12 20:54:02 +0000 2018

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This 51%-45% Conor Lamb (D) lead is pretty consistent w/ other polling that's led me to believe Rick Saccone (R)'s… https://t.co/PP8O7Xxcad

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Mon Mar 12 20:13:25 +0000 2018

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It's actually Nathan, which makes me one of the cool kids (no offense @NateSilver538). https://t.co/Hy4W5PGtsX

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Mon Mar 12 19:59:31 +0000 2018

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RT @databyler: Also I will use any opportunity I can get to put this @JMilesColeman map-based gif into a piece because I think it's super i…

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Mon Mar 12 19:55:22 +0000 2018

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Remember when Dems won a special election in #PA12 in 2010, an awful year for them? The irony is, if the #PA18 spec… https://t.co/LgA39rXa8R

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Mon Mar 12 02:58:58 +0000 2018

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@JMilesColeman Critz carried critical Allegheny Co. 520-361 in that race.

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Mon Mar 12 02:43:06 +0000 2018

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Think of it this way: Jon Ossoff (D) outperformed #GA06's @CookPolitical partisan voter index (PVI) score by 6%, Ro… https://t.co/YaceCDKmqj

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Mon Mar 12 02:39:32 +0000 2018

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@Nate_Cohn My model has Allegheny 44%, Westmoreland 32%, Washington 22%, Greene 2%.

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Mon Mar 12 02:28:23 +0000 2018

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@Nate_Cohn I'm in the 220-240k range...you?

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Mon Mar 12 02:19:50 +0000 2018

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@Nate_Cohn Clinton was at 48% of the Allegheny 2PV, so 58% seems attainable there, given it's the focus of the most intense Dem GOTV

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Mon Mar 12 02:16:00 +0000 2018

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Here's what I'd estimate Conor Lamb (D) needs in each #PA18 county to win on Tuesday: Allegheny: 58% Greene: 41% W… https://t.co/Bw8lqwsuaN

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Mon Mar 12 02:07:18 +0000 2018

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@JMilesColeman @ForecasterEnten Contrary to stereotype, #PA18 has highest share of college grads of any western PA CD

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Mon Mar 12 01:59:59 +0000 2018

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@mcpli @_justinlevitt_ @AriBerman @ruthgreenwood That's exactly the problem. Because there's no clear SCOTUS standa… https://t.co/bJ2ktbr1cg

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Sat Mar 10 21:04:39 +0000 2018

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@_justinlevitt_ @mcpli @AriBerman @ruthgreenwood I'd like to know how the racial intent in VA and NC was provable i… https://t.co/NvHdEpQLAl

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Sat Mar 10 20:48:42 +0000 2018

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@_justinlevitt_ @mcpli @AriBerman @ruthgreenwood Then why haven't #LA02 and #AL07 been struck down the way #VA03 an… https://t.co/qh7Pw7Gbxe

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Sat Mar 10 20:37:44 +0000 2018

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@mcpli @AriBerman @ruthgreenwood I'm skeptical of an "it'll all get worked out later" approach. I doubt appellate c… https://t.co/TRj1Y7mA1J

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Sat Mar 10 19:08:10 +0000 2018

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@mcpli @AriBerman @ruthgreenwood If the court articulates the harm we should be looking for without adopting a meas… https://t.co/i62XkErcG3

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Sat Mar 10 18:35:08 +0000 2018

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@AriBerman @ruthgreenwood That's a fair place to start. But in your opinion, which elections should be used to calc… https://t.co/ICKHnG4WVi

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Sat Mar 10 18:26:47 +0000 2018

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I'm open to the possibility there's a workable anti-gerrymandering standard for SCOTUS to adopt. I also believe tho… https://t.co/OzT9FMhpo8

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Sat Mar 10 17:39:13 +0000 2018

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Agree with much (not all) of this piece, but most curious about Myth #5: @AriBerman, what do you see as a manageabl… https://t.co/o0jBZuVrvB

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Sat Mar 10 17:05:30 +0000 2018

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RT @nathanlgonzales: I have a lot of questions about the weighting of this poll. https://t.co/sEuYFrItyb

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Fri Mar 09 15:11:38 +0000 2018

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Pretty amazing stat. https://t.co/zAdgnbjpwc

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Thu Mar 08 23:14:42 +0000 2018

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My latest dispatch for @NBCNews: https://t.co/UXESGsqQc5

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Thu Mar 08 23:00:42 +0000 2018

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My latest for @NBCNews: Is Texas turning purple? A look at the midterm numbers. https://t.co/UXESGsqQc5

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Thu Mar 08 22:59:03 +0000 2018

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Rolling out tariffs less than a week before #PA18 makes things a little more interesting. Could it rescue Saccone (… https://t.co/mwH4mDVKQW

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Thu Mar 08 21:46:05 +0000 2018

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RT @sfpathe: Lots of #PA18 stories out there. But here's some stellar on-the-ground reporting from @bridgetbhc about the power of unions in…

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Thu Mar 08 20:22:28 +0000 2018

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@pleizar @mattyglesias Huh? I largely agree

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Thu Mar 08 15:49:02 +0000 2018

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A lot of the numbers/findings in this piece are way off, starting w/ overstating the R share of the #TXSEN primary… https://t.co/QHGQM8Fqwe

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Wed Mar 07 23:44:10 +0000 2018

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RT @MargieOmero: KSA is irreplaceable, but @redistrict does a great impression in our TX wrap-up & house race preview: https://t.co/Sn30yxa…

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Wed Mar 07 23:28:02 +0000 2018

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Calling it a night so I can sound mildly coherent discussing the results on @ThePollsters podcast tomorrow. On to t… https://t.co/BQyTpSW7V5

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Wed Mar 07 07:33:04 +0000 2018

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Dems accounted for ~40% of all TX primary votes cast this year. That's up from 29% in 2014 & 31% in 2010, but it's… https://t.co/9hhHlDNMVK

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Wed Mar 07 07:30:36 +0000 2018

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Dems' turnout spike was far from evenly distributed on the map. Biggest jumps relative to '14/'10 came in major met… https://t.co/wr8mBLHSPC

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Wed Mar 07 07:17:38 +0000 2018

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Does this mean a blue wave is about to wash over TX? Most likely not. Does it confirm a spike in Dem enthusiasm rel… https://t.co/ytYqgieZVt

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Wed Mar 07 07:14:55 +0000 2018

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Breaking, w/ nearly all of TX's precincts in: Dem primary voting has spiked 84% vs. 2014 midterm, GOP voting just 1… https://t.co/eCR6Mmj5Vr

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Wed Mar 07 07:12:23 +0000 2018

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Allred (40%) starts as clear favorite over Salerno (17%) in Dem runoff for right to take on Rep. Pete Sessions (R)… https://t.co/OUGrrdpbuc

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Wed Mar 07 06:49:38 +0000 2018

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In #TX21, fmr. Cruz staffer Chip Roy & perennial candidate Matt McCall advance to GOP runoff. Much-touted Joseph Ko… https://t.co/Ff6xMMu7KF

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Wed Mar 07 06:24:45 +0000 2018

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Releasing this cheesy jingle on primary night might be peak Ted Cruz. https://t.co/bHaRAfdq3y

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Wed Mar 07 06:12:03 +0000 2018

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Also, she might win the award for awkward stump speech of the year: https://t.co/mHPgvNbsUg

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Wed Mar 07 05:58:38 +0000 2018

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For starters, $6 million should've bought her better video production value. Her ads looked like early '90s public… https://t.co/A8yde3IjSn

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Wed Mar 07 05:56:18 +0000 2018

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Looks like the #TX02 GOP runoff will come down to state Rep. Kevin Roberts vs. former Navy SEAL Dan Crenshaw. Eithe… https://t.co/fTlfnQG3g3

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Wed Mar 07 05:46:06 +0000 2018

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Remarkable: self-styled "female Trump" Kathaleen Wall fails to make #TX02 GOP runoff after spending $6 million of h… https://t.co/9iX0V4XR6h

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Wed Mar 07 05:43:38 +0000 2018

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@CrassPolitical Dems cast more primary ballots there in '14 and still lost general. The major primary turnout gains… https://t.co/F7SAUh2E4b

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Wed Mar 07 05:30:47 +0000 2018

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So far, Dems are seeing big turnout gains vs. '14/'10 in major metro TX, but not nearly as dramatic elsewhere. Bode… https://t.co/3FpIdB8KZj

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Wed Mar 07 05:18:38 +0000 2018

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Let this be a cautionary tale for using $$ to project votes in upcoming primaries. https://t.co/wX9Oso7FDu

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Wed Mar 07 04:55:10 +0000 2018

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At the moment, #TX02 GOP candidate Kathaleen Wall is in danger of failing to make the runoff despite self-funding to the tune of $6 million.

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Wed Mar 07 04:49:02 +0000 2018

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Hard to disagree. Dems will still show great gains over '14/'10, but GOP will still hold very solid lead in primary… https://t.co/Yi2ZlXCzc9

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Wed Mar 07 04:23:48 +0000 2018

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National Dems/Castros were really high on Hulings. Looking like he won't even make #TX23 runoff. Ouch. https://t.co/Gby1Bm3Mj7

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Wed Mar 07 03:56:04 +0000 2018

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Most valuable commodities in this crowded #TX07 field may have been free publicity & outsider cred. DCCC attack hel… https://t.co/7eG4xvUObR

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Wed Mar 07 03:48:45 +0000 2018

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Still not a lot of E-Day vote from big Dem zones (Austin, Dallas, Houston, El Paso)....margin could tighten again. https://t.co/UcJwZsTBcg

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Wed Mar 07 03:35:14 +0000 2018

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@chriscostantini Sorry, not my job to shield ppl from data they don't like.

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Wed Mar 07 03:21:03 +0000 2018

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TX primary turnout in recent midterms: 2006: 56% R, 44% D 2010: 69% R, 31% D 2014: 71% R, 29% D Tonight: ??, ?? B… https://t.co/M9wNJGHuop

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Wed Mar 07 03:09:35 +0000 2018

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@Nate_Cohn @SeanTrende who could you possible be referring to...

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Wed Mar 07 02:50:47 +0000 2018

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Won't come as a great surprise to most, but I'll disagree slightly. Final turnout will show (as EV predicted) that… https://t.co/PfyXbWYX5C

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Wed Mar 07 02:45:37 +0000 2018

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Tonight's a pretty stark reminder that Beto O'Rourke isn't yet a statewide phenom in #TXSEN. He's at 87% of Dem pri… https://t.co/hnYML7Jlhy

Created

Wed Mar 07 02:40:40 +0000 2018

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There was never any question Rs would cast more TX primary ballots than Ds. Question is what final ratio looks like… https://t.co/8X8xgb4awH

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Wed Mar 07 02:31:23 +0000 2018

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Despite self-funding to the tune of $5.9 million to run poor quality ads, Trump self-comparing Kathaleen Wall (R) c… https://t.co/1OOdujkfHb

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Wed Mar 07 02:27:05 +0000 2018

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Actually, Kopser (D) currently leading w/ only 30% of the vote in #TX21 - headed to runoff. Pretty weak showing so… https://t.co/mFTDYthSbP

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Wed Mar 07 02:17:29 +0000 2018

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Hard to believe, but TX has never elected a Latina to Congress. That's ending in 2018: #TX16 Veronica Escobar (D) a… https://t.co/5I66iLKxNr

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Wed Mar 07 02:08:37 +0000 2018

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#TX21 GOP primary looks very likely to head to runoff between William Negley (R) and Chip Roy (R). Winner will face… https://t.co/9ZL3aB6WtK

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Wed Mar 07 01:56:18 +0000 2018

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Beto O'Rourke (D) is at 64% statewide and will obviously avoid runoff for #TXSEN, but so far his numbers in lots of… https://t.co/RTONBJZI5E

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Wed Mar 07 01:45:30 +0000 2018

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In #TX07, EMILY's List-backed Lizzie Fletcher (D) has made the runoff. Only question: will late attacks deny Laura… https://t.co/6zxsKJmRlT

Created

Wed Mar 07 01:43:15 +0000 2018

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In Dallas's #TX32, Colin Allred (D) seized momentum in last few months and looks like he'll be heavy fave in runoff… https://t.co/1nr88WjDxD

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Wed Mar 07 01:40:46 +0000 2018

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Gina Ortiz Jones currently dominating Castro brothers-backed Jay Hulings in #TX23 Dem primary...can she avoid a run… https://t.co/8AOMpKSfAi

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Wed Mar 07 01:37:57 +0000 2018

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So far, this isn't actually that dominant a primary performance from Beto O'Rourke. Obviously he'll win without a r… https://t.co/zgC80XWrWY

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Wed Mar 07 01:30:53 +0000 2018

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@Nate_Cohn can't believe a Bakersfield Dem wouldn't be interested in a year like '18.

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Tue Mar 06 20:45:31 +0000 2018

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I'd expect this to be true of Dems' fall gains vs. '16 prez margins, but much more consistent across district types… https://t.co/CItMPKyqIF

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Tue Mar 06 20:42:52 +0000 2018

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Yes definitely a real possibility in Rep. Duncan Hunter (R)'s #CA50, where electorate is super GOP. https://t.co/DVN1zecVV8

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Tue Mar 06 17:37:36 +0000 2018

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Why I'm skeptical Dems will end up getting "shut out" in CA's top-two House primaries: amped Dem voters poised to m… https://t.co/7PLcCOJoEo

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Tue Mar 06 16:56:26 +0000 2018

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No doubt Rs will still cast more primary ballots than Ds in TX overall. But I'm especially curious about the breakd… https://t.co/TRsOatxWpn

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Tue Mar 06 15:30:44 +0000 2018

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Hmm...I'll say 16, which is also O'Rourke's current district number. https://t.co/vklO9AGCHq

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Tue Mar 06 05:24:14 +0000 2018

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@ThePlumLineGS Tbc I began arriving at this view before the Emerson poll came out, based on other polling & ad differentials.

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Mon Mar 05 20:22:56 +0000 2018

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At this point I'd consider a Rick Saccone (R) win a surprise. #PA18 https://t.co/7pamVyxDxI

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Mon Mar 05 20:06:01 +0000 2018

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This is news to me... https://t.co/Gcivy2Eyti

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Mon Mar 05 15:39:07 +0000 2018

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T.J. Cox, Dems' supposed fill-in candidate against #CA21 Rep. David Valadao (R), still has a bio section railing ag… https://t.co/mB9BxpOss4

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Mon Mar 05 15:36:50 +0000 2018

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RT @davecatanese: Who supports Trump's steel tariffs? Both #PA18 special election candidates, @ConorLambPA & @Saccone4PA18 https://t.co/XQ…

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Mon Mar 05 03:02:35 +0000 2018

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Of all the possible people to be in front of me waiting to get on this plane, it's a vulnerable GOP member from TX.… https://t.co/zYiVoZHlmU

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Mon Mar 05 01:48:01 +0000 2018

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Arguably Dems' biggest recruitment hole in the country. #CA21 https://t.co/WjHheWvZTq

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Sun Mar 04 23:57:00 +0000 2018

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Thanks for being such a loyal reader: https://t.co/3Lt9PsPcu6 https://t.co/0EKfWLXYc2

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Sun Mar 04 21:28:36 +0000 2018

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@davidshor If Latinos drop 3-4% as a share of the overall TX electorate from '16 to '18, I'd say that's pretty relevant to Dems' chances.

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Sun Mar 04 21:22:10 +0000 2018

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If Hillary Clinton were president, we'd be talking about MN a lot more than TX. https://t.co/UxwnKSjK3d

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Sun Mar 04 20:28:04 +0000 2018

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The key to Texas's competitiveness in November: what does Hispanic/Latino turnout look like? Historically, it's bee… https://t.co/pZYDZ3fPVr

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Sun Mar 04 20:21:15 +0000 2018

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Same is true in VA - in 2011, GOP could have easily drawn a safer map that would've held firm at ~58R-42D in 2017.… https://t.co/6pH3yR5wRu

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Sun Mar 04 17:36:45 +0000 2018

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A major contributing factor: corporate relocations from high-tax coastal states (especially CA) to major TX metros.… https://t.co/U1Ae5EbEvb

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Sun Mar 04 00:20:21 +0000 2018

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What's up w/ Texas these days? For decades, two trends have canceled out: 1) explosion of non-whites/suburban profe… https://t.co/jQkTEF1UZX

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Sun Mar 04 00:13:57 +0000 2018

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Breaking: in TX's 15 largest counties, early voting in Dem primary spiked 105% (!) vs. 2014 midterm, vs. just 15% i… https://t.co/cSviGKbcnZ

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Sat Mar 03 23:18:46 +0000 2018

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RT @mcpli: Democrats end early voting in Texas with 52.5% of the primary vote in the 15 largest counties. Up from 38.3% in 2014. #txlege ht…

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Sat Mar 03 23:07:13 +0000 2018

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@Barnes_Law @gelliottmorris @SeanTrende @ForecasterEnten @Nate_Cohn @NateSilver538 Combination of voter list cleanu… https://t.co/YZkNkKZl1e

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Sat Mar 03 22:34:36 +0000 2018

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RT @AlecMacGillis: The biggest story you’ve read almost nothing about this week in the national media: https://t.co/vo5bTvZWZo

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Sat Mar 03 22:30:05 +0000 2018

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@Ojeda4congress @fe5082 @POLITICOMag Would you be willing to release the details of your poll?

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Fri Mar 02 16:42:55 +0000 2018

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This profile is worth a read. If Republicans end up sweating a district that went 73%-23% for Trump, that'll tell y… https://t.co/HZ00LtCX5L

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Fri Mar 02 13:44:47 +0000 2018

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Replies from her workforce are pretty telling (fed govt/almost everything else in area closed this am) https://t.co/1twEloDWED

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Fri Mar 02 12:32:30 +0000 2018

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At two separate junctures in the last 5 mins, ESPN said Louisville had a >95% chance to win and UVA came back to ei… https://t.co/lkR3zfKNQ1

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Fri Mar 02 03:37:51 +0000 2018

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That was the craziest ending to a UVA (or really any) 🏀 game I've ever witnessed and I couldn't even see what happe… https://t.co/f0NAi9yFAP

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Fri Mar 02 03:19:08 +0000 2018

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RT @CarrieNBCNews: The millennials are coming. @pewresearch finds that millennial voter interest in the midterms, which lagged older gene…

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Fri Mar 02 00:39:14 +0000 2018

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Dems back to big generic ballot leads. To clarify, a 15% lead would guarantee a Dem House *if* election were held t… https://t.co/xZ7p1KsOBn

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Thu Mar 01 17:34:24 +0000 2018

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Hartman was arguably the Dem most adversely affected by the new PA map. Had a good chance vs. Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R… https://t.co/AK0VgLL7kx

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Wed Feb 28 18:02:23 +0000 2018

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Dems instantly have a candidate w/ $219k in the bank in a suddenly competitive Harrisburg seat, #PA10. The catch: s… https://t.co/C6qFTl8jkS

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Wed Feb 28 17:51:31 +0000 2018

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Just like both Nates, I'm gonna throw my home district out there: #NJ07. Rep. Leonard Lance (R) is one of the few t… https://t.co/rtydoI44mV

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Wed Feb 28 17:37:04 +0000 2018

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#MI08 a great pick for a bellwether. Also a good test of whether GOP can make carpetbagger label stick vs. a Dem wh… https://t.co/C872AqmYac

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Wed Feb 28 17:16:00 +0000 2018

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@SeanTrende @nathanlgonzales @NateSilver538 @Nate_Cohn @geoffreyvs @kkondik @databyler @DavidNir #CA45 or #ME02

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Wed Feb 28 14:12:39 +0000 2018

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Republicans avoid a potential headache in #AZ08 as Debbie Lesko (R) defeats sexting scandal-involved Steve Monteneg… https://t.co/oewZUrurUK

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Wed Feb 28 04:40:21 +0000 2018

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RT @amyewalter: Looking at @CMAGAdFacts data on total # of ads run in PA-18: Connor Lamb has aired 1,985 ads to just 345 for Saccone. Overa…

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Tue Feb 27 20:08:11 +0000 2018

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Another telling fact: Lamb (D) has aired 1,985 ad spots to Saccone (R)'s 345. NRCC & CLF have more than made up the… https://t.co/Awu34UwVcv

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Tue Feb 27 19:42:52 +0000 2018

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Despite its blue-collar reputation, #PA18 has the highest rate of college graduates of any western PA district & Al… https://t.co/7m0Vm0oTz4

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Tue Feb 27 19:35:22 +0000 2018

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New at @CookPolitical: 3/13 special election in #PA18 moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up. https://t.co/G79C48iSmA

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Tue Feb 27 19:31:15 +0000 2018

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@Edsall If Dems win TX in 2020, they'll have already won (thanks to states like AZ/NC).

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Tue Feb 27 05:17:43 +0000 2018

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RT @JMilesColeman: CO, VA falling off the tossup map into the Dem column & IA, OH for Rs. https://t.co/1s9ZeQWEF8

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Tue Feb 27 04:12:46 +0000 2018

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The 2020 election is on track to be decided by 10 states: AZ, FL, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, PA, WI. In 2024, that lis… https://t.co/INMsNccJY8

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Tue Feb 27 03:30:15 +0000 2018

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Don't get me wrong; I still roll my eyes whenever hearing "When TX becomes a purple state, it'll all be over for th… https://t.co/BdKFAN06W2

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Tue Feb 27 03:09:32 +0000 2018

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RT @Taniel: Flip side: 3 of the 12 where Trump's approval rating is above 50% somehow feature Democrats defending a Senate seat. (Then agai…

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Tue Feb 27 02:45:16 +0000 2018

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P.S. If you want to track TX politics in 2018 and you aren't following @TexasTribAbby, you're doing it wrong.

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Tue Feb 27 02:37:59 +0000 2018

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Whether TX's surprisingly anti-Trump mood means it's winnable for @BetoORourke...can't say yet. But it explains why… https://t.co/hhHFgcfzIE

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Mon Feb 26 22:30:03 +0000 2018

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I've spent my career downplaying Dems' odds in Texas, but there's something different going on there this cycle. https://t.co/hVvukXDjWK

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Mon Feb 26 22:21:34 +0000 2018

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RT @ForecasterEnten: Following Parkland, support for stricter gun control is as high as it was in 1993-1994 (when the Assault Weapons Ban b…

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Mon Feb 26 20:31:10 +0000 2018

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In terms of House $, this @MichaelMalbin chart says it all: 2018 is shaping up to be 2010 in reverse. Are there sti… https://t.co/jwB4mGg7Xr

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Mon Feb 26 19:22:24 +0000 2018

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If you're not convinced Dems have a big candidate/donor enthusiasm advantage, this terrific @MichaelMalbin analysis… https://t.co/Bgeptla8dl

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Mon Feb 26 18:52:22 +0000 2018

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During Jan., Republicans cut Dems' generic ballot lead in half, from ~10% to ~5%. That's been erased in the last 3… https://t.co/N5nAGOAc5n

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Mon Feb 26 18:38:58 +0000 2018

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@mattyglesias @archibaldcrane Think you might be referring to a VRA-protected district

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Mon Feb 26 16:27:28 +0000 2018

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Because PA's court map strived for partisan symmetry and compactness, I haven't/wouldn't call it a gerrymander. But… https://t.co/lj1v0rQDqR

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Mon Feb 26 16:04:25 +0000 2018

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This @UpshotNYT finding is important - and proves those who cast doubt on Democrats' inherent geographic disadvanta… https://t.co/l3tzsUM3wb

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Mon Feb 26 15:59:28 +0000 2018

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RT @Nate_Cohn: The new congressional map in Pennsylvania was arguably better for the Democrats, by 2016 elections, than all 500 simulations…

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Mon Feb 26 15:51:51 +0000 2018

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Latest must-read @amyewalter: It's Not All About the NRA https://t.co/Tl9wh1b7Ay

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Mon Feb 26 01:43:16 +0000 2018

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RT @Taniel: The median presidential result per district in this new "very unfair to Republicans" map is Trump +5.7%. Trump won the state by…

Created

Sat Feb 24 22:08:31 +0000 2018

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RT @TexasTribAbby: The DCCC is going nuclear on a Democratic Congressional candidate in Texas. In three cycles of covering these races, I a…

Created

Sat Feb 24 19:51:54 +0000 2018

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@JustCameron__ You're not following. Dems have great chance to pick up 4-6 under new map. They had great chance to… https://t.co/joSDbnKq7j

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Fri Feb 23 23:21:50 +0000 2018

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Also be skeptical of pronouncements that "Dems will pick up 4-6 seats" because of the new map. The new map replaces… https://t.co/O59QfS10hp

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Thu Feb 22 18:03:09 +0000 2018

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Be skeptical of pronouncements that "PA's new map is 10R-8D" (going by Trump/Clinton). It's a highly competitive ma… https://t.co/8t5ZnUmGBl

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Thu Feb 22 17:25:49 +0000 2018

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@_justinlevitt_ We don't disagree. The GOP map the court overturned was an extreme gerrymander. But it took Dems wi… https://t.co/7nhGBZpzDb

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Thu Feb 22 04:13:48 +0000 2018

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RT @Nate_Cohn: Why analysts were surprised by the new PA map--why Dems are so happy/Republicans so upset--in one chart https://t.co/IbJ6Oe0…

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Wed Feb 21 22:38:59 +0000 2018

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This June primary scenario, though still not probable, could move Rep. Darrell Issa (R)'s open #CA49 all the way fr… https://t.co/uHxLU4UodM

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Wed Feb 21 20:29:22 +0000 2018

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The GOP effort to impeach PA Supreme Court justices is likely headed nowhere - in part because the old map was such… https://t.co/T6gm6Cw27g

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Wed Feb 21 19:05:46 +0000 2018

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The GOP effort to impeach PA Supreme Court justices is likely headed nowhere - in part because the old map was such… https://t.co/fkMMj8Hcke

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Wed Feb 21 19:05:16 +0000 2018

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@stevesingiser @PoliticsWolf You also might want to mention that the GOP effort to impeach PA's judges is likely he… https://t.co/sMZZB1xrTx

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Wed Feb 21 17:42:53 +0000 2018

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@PoliticsWolf Maybe they didn't because the CA commission's map resulted in Dems *gaining* four House seats in 2012… https://t.co/9Eer4M1WSI

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Wed Feb 21 17:32:24 +0000 2018

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To be clear, this was likely to happen under any map that valued compactness & reunited Lehigh Valley. But Cartwrig… https://t.co/kyna3eOpgn

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Wed Feb 21 17:20:48 +0000 2018

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Another winner in PA Remap: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D), whose GOP opponent John Chrin ($915k on hand) saw his home dr… https://t.co/VI8c1IbUV0

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Wed Feb 21 17:16:50 +0000 2018

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Also, this is a logical choice for Rep. Brendan Boyle (D). When he first ran for NE Philly/Montco #PA13 in 2014, he… https://t.co/FsbRQdJCcT

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Wed Feb 21 16:42:18 +0000 2018

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As predicted. Could this clear way for former Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D) to come back now that her old Montco seat i… https://t.co/R8NXvKMLxL

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Wed Feb 21 15:00:52 +0000 2018

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Redistricting has become a never-ending game of partisan one-upmanship. If PA roles were reversed, no doubt many De… https://t.co/t2SNXY7dLU

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Wed Feb 21 05:16:04 +0000 2018

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Remember: the PA ruling wouldn't have been possible had Dems not won key PA Supreme Court races in 2015. Which is w… https://t.co/dfPNcBgEL5

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Wed Feb 21 05:14:08 +0000 2018

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@JohnAnzo I think D is at the core of C

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Wed Feb 21 04:55:43 +0000 2018

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Personally, I'd probably answer c). The PA Supreme Court's answer was by far closest to a). But here's what we can… https://t.co/u9BsqJgoPb

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Wed Feb 21 00:26:57 +0000 2018

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What's the definition of a "fair map?" Is it one that: a) aims to award a proportional share of seats to votes? b)… https://t.co/eZ0mXHqblF

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Wed Feb 21 00:19:00 +0000 2018

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Excellent thread on why the fairness of PA's new map is in the eye of the beholder. -> https://t.co/wrxGCUljtQ

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Tue Feb 20 23:58:19 +0000 2018

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RT @Nate_Cohn: Since some have asked, here are some of the Democratic-friendly choices on the new PA map, along with the more Republican al…

Created

Tue Feb 20 23:05:40 +0000 2018

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RT @CookPolitical: Full list of Pennsylvania rating changes: #PA03 Solid R to Likely R #PA04 Solid R to Likely R #PA06 Lean R to Toss Up #…

Created

Tue Feb 20 22:56:18 +0000 2018

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NEW: Seven @CookPolitical ratings changes for PA (using old district numbers until 3/13 #PA18 special election is o… https://t.co/9AslFU8VNP

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Tue Feb 20 19:50:52 +0000 2018

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NEW: Seven @CookPolitical ratings changes for PA (using old district numbers until 3/13 #PA18 special election is o… https://t.co/bqbw3f6XMJ

Created

Tue Feb 20 19:49:40 +0000 2018

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NEW: Seven @CookPolitical ratings changes for PA (using old district numbers until 3/13 #PA18 special election is o… https://t.co/M9ghdnYKpH

Created

Tue Feb 20 19:48:24 +0000 2018

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NEW: Seven @CookPolitical ratings changes for PA (using old district numbers until 3/13 #PA18 special election is o… https://t.co/kqDE4AWrfp

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Tue Feb 20 19:47:05 +0000 2018

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@Nate_Cohn pending Lamb or Wolf?

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Tue Feb 20 16:46:16 +0000 2018

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New PA map raises interesting possibility: even if SCOTUS can't settle on a workable definition of partisan gerryma… https://t.co/VZ7bjeaAnu

Created

Tue Feb 20 16:41:33 +0000 2018

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@geoffreyvs Wait, the special is March 13. That's a whole week.

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Tue Feb 20 15:26:11 +0000 2018

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Good question. And will Saccone start gathering signatures for new #PA14 - a district he doesn't live in? https://t.co/aW4NYTDljl

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Tue Feb 20 15:14:33 +0000 2018

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Under the old lines, here were the PVIs of the six vulnerable GOP seats: #PA06: R+2 #PA07: R+1 #PA08: R+2 #PA15: R… https://t.co/N3zvPFPEWv

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Tue Feb 20 06:40:40 +0000 2018

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The most accurate way to think about partisan impact of new PA map isn't "Dems gain x seats from it." It's that the… https://t.co/M6nB76QTMX

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Tue Feb 20 06:33:40 +0000 2018

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@pwthornton Fact: PA's political geography naturally advantages GOP. It's tough to draw 9/18 districts to elect Dem… https://t.co/Z194lNErcs

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Tue Feb 20 05:09:50 +0000 2018

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@mlbroeske The "very definition of our democracy?" No, that's called proportional representation. If you favor that… https://t.co/RD3TdZfwHj

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Tue Feb 20 03:35:51 +0000 2018

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Terrific explainer of why the new PA lines are even better for Dems than expected. Dems' pickup opportunities in ~5… https://t.co/EuHyGM0fUf

Created

Mon Feb 19 23:34:46 +0000 2018

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This piece gets it. -> https://t.co/cAb9SOHqKl

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Mon Feb 19 23:31:29 +0000 2018

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P.S. Dems' natural geographic disadvantage has *zero* to do w/ land mass/density. It has to do with concentration o… https://t.co/fzLbnqtvOp

Created

Mon Feb 19 23:12:04 +0000 2018

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Examples: new PA map splits Berks Co. (Reading) in a way that gives Dems an advantage in #PA06. Splits York Co. in… https://t.co/btw6HfGLZJ

Created

Mon Feb 19 22:58:13 +0000 2018

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Make no mistake: this is the PA map Dems wanted. It's a ringing endorsement of the "partisan fairness" doctrine: th… https://t.co/NYTHJo3HoF

Created

Mon Feb 19 22:48:01 +0000 2018

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Holder statement on new PA map: “The fair map issued by the state Supreme Court is a major victory in the fight aga… https://t.co/wqkzcUNEyN

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Mon Feb 19 22:03:08 +0000 2018

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A caveat for Dems: two Lancaster Dems, Christina Hartman & Jess King, have raised $300k+ for #PA16. Now that $$ is… https://t.co/C2ZoX5piPe

Created

Mon Feb 19 21:36:18 +0000 2018

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The result: Dems have a great shot to win 8-11 of PA's 18 seats in November. Under a truly partisan-blind compact m… https://t.co/uYG3P0KFbl

Created

Mon Feb 19 21:29:58 +0000 2018

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Bottom line: the PA Supreme Court's map doesn't just undo the GOP's gerrymander. It goes further, actively helping… https://t.co/z0fKo8nJ32

Created

Mon Feb 19 21:25:26 +0000 2018

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New #PA18 (old #PA14): Rep. Mike Doyle (D) keeps a safe Dem Pittsburgh seat. PVI moves from D+17 to D+13.

Created

Mon Feb 19 21:14:39 +0000 2018

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New #PA17 (old #PA12): Rep. Keith Rothfus (R) gets much more of Allegheny Co., making him MUCH more vulnerable. PVI… https://t.co/o3GgDNpQ4n

Created

Mon Feb 19 21:13:27 +0000 2018

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CORRECTION: New #PA08 (old #PA17): Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) gets to keep a seat that's R+1, PVI essentially unchang… https://t.co/eVHru2SrXY

Created

Mon Feb 19 21:02:22 +0000 2018

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New #PA16 (old #PA03): Erie is reunited & Butler Co. is once again split, moving PVI from R+11 to R+8. Rep. Mike Ke… https://t.co/HBnw8sBMlh

Created

Mon Feb 19 20:59:07 +0000 2018

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New #PA15 (old #PA05): this rural western PA seat becomes by far the most GOP in the state at R+20. Safe for Rep. G.T. Thompson (R).

Created

Mon Feb 19 20:57:14 +0000 2018

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New #PA14 (old #PA18): this new SWPA district loses Allegheny County (Conor Lamb (D)'s home) & becomes safer for GO… https://t.co/n8ObEB8rrH

Created

Mon Feb 19 20:54:25 +0000 2018

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New #PA13 (old #PA09): this is a reconfigured version of the Shuster (R) open seat centered on Altoona. Still safe GOP.

Created

Mon Feb 19 20:52:21 +0000 2018

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New #PA12 (old #PA10): Rep. Tom Marino (R) gets to keep a safe GOP seat centered on Williamsport. PVI moves from R+16 to R+17.

Created

Mon Feb 19 20:50:19 +0000 2018

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New #PA11 (old #PA16): Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R) a big winner in this remap. Unites Lancaster & rural York, loses Read… https://t.co/UP4wvVfd3R

Created

Mon Feb 19 20:49:09 +0000 2018

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New #PA10 (old #PA04): Rep. Scott Perry (R)'s new district now takes in all of Harrisburg, moving PVI from R+11 to… https://t.co/fxGjlJYXzs

Created

Mon Feb 19 20:47:46 +0000 2018

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New #PA09 (old #PA11): a reconfig