Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One more thing: a lot of the factors I’ve listed are really hard to model/quantify! Especially using historical data that might not apply to recent trends. Which is why I’m cautious of people who are really confident their quant models are super well-calibrated. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another potential concern about 11/3 going smoothly: poll worker inexperience given unprecedented level of turnover (I'm serious). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Timodc No. If Biden flips MI, PA and #NE02, he'd be at 269-269, which goes to the House, where a majority of delegations are likely to be Republican. He needs something else (AZ, FL, WI, etc.) to get him over 270. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2016, @FiveThirtyEight's model gave Trump a 10.5% chance of winning the EC while losing the PV heading into election day - and frankly, I thought that was a bit low at the time. https://t.co/GIjxcNVFhi — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn much closer to 75% than 60%. and if he were ahead by 8.5 pts w LVs on 11/1, i'd say 90-95% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, just as there was a uniquely high chance of Trump winning w/ fewer votes '16, today I believe there's a uniquely high chance (maybe 3-4%) of a 269-269 tie, w/ Biden carrying PA/MI/#NE02 and no other Trump '16 turf - a scenario the House would likely decide in Trump's favor. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, despite what the state polling averages say, I still view Biden's path of least resistance to 270 Electoral Votes as MI, #NE02, PA and *AZ,* rather than FL or WI - based on demographic patterns and what we saw from hard votes in '18. Admittedly, it's a really close call. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That said!! Biden's lead to date is clearly more *stable* than Clinton's was throughout '16, with fewer undecided/third party voters. I still view him as the favorite. And I'd welcome those tempted to label me as a "concern troll" to judge me by @CookPolitical's work in '18. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

5) The asymmetry in modes of voting - Dems preferring mail and Trump voters set on in-person - creates additional and unique uncertainty, including potential for postal chicanery, voter error & rejected absentees that disproportionately hurt Dems. https://t.co/Jra4tGYwHq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

4) Polling suggests Trump's bonus in the Electoral College (relative to the popular vote) is at least as large as it was in '16 (2.9%) or potentially even larger. He could plausibly lose nationally by up to 5 points (!) and still win reelection. https://t.co/IR6Ovxhwdu — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

3) At the moment, Trump is losing non-whites by a bit less than he lost them in '16. Whether this holds, who knows. But the voters Trump needs to improve with to get back in contention - non-college whites - supported him before and tend to live in Trump-friendly info ecosystems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

2) As 2016 showed us, as Trump amplifies/intensifies/just plain makes up his attacks on his opponents, the media tends to react in a way that #bothsides-es each nominee's liabilities - real or perceived - *potentially* bringing their favs/unfavs into closer alignment. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

1) Voters have pretty short memories compared to analysts' priors. As more Americans get used to living in a pandemic, there is potential - not necessarily a likelihood, but potential - for the dominance of COVID-19 to ebb as voters' top issue and other issues to rise. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Without wading into the modeling wars - a debate I see as mostly fruitless - guess I'll try to summarize why I think the presidential race is more like "Lean Biden" (60%-75% range) than "Likely/Solid Biden" (90%+ range) as we head into the final night of the RNC... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @FandMPoll Pennsylvania showing Biden ahead 49%-42% also shows extreme divergence on intended voting mode: Democrats: 55%-42% mail/absentee Independents: 58%-29 in person Republicans: 84%-10% in person — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you think punditry is breathless now, just wait until October when we'll hear plenty of hot takes about what the massive Dem advantage in early/absentee voting portends for each state's outcome. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @PollsAndVotes: Public opinion of Black Lives Matter protests in Wisconsin, police behavior and related topics. This is a dry look at t… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is beyond absurd. If @CookPolitical had a category safer than “Solid Democratic,” #FL21 would be in it. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Amen. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The fact that it’s dwindling - and that Trump is performing horrendously w/ college whites - makes amping up non-college white turnout a prerequisite for Trump to have any chance. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Spoiler alert: the conventions aren't going to upend the race. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@travishelwig @gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 I actually kinda wanna see more — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump's election in 2016 required a steady normalization of Trump's extremely abnormal candidacy. Trump's reelection in 2020 will require a steady normalization of an extremely abnormal pandemic toll. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For all the gossip that Trump would replace him this time, Pence played a key role in Trump's normalization as a candidate in '16. The GOP voters most wary of Trump exiting the '16 primaries were social/evangelical conservatives. Pence helped build a permission structure. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For all the gossip that Trump would replace him this time, Pence is an underrated part in Trump's normalization as a candidate in '16. The GOP voters most wary of Trump exiting the '16 primaries were social/evangelical conservatives. Pence helped build a permission structure. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is a pretty generic GOP speech by Pence - one that will comfort longtime party stalwarts. It's one reason he proved an effective counterbalance to Trump in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @nathanlgonzales: A clearly armed white individual approached law enforcement, while people shouted that he shot someone, to the point w… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@BruneElections @CollegeInsights The @CollegeInsights survey was of 4,000 college students, so I’d bet on an n of ~200 - not huge, but a much larger sample than other polls that have shown Biden weakness w/ this group. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The obvious explanation? The 1994 crime bill has exploded in public consciousness in the past few years and Biden, unlike Obama, was a driving force behind it. And while “you ain’t Black” likely didn’t change anyone’s vote, it didn’t help Biden’s effort to shore up his standing. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

People scoffed at the importance of this at the time. But Biden's weakness w/ young Black men looks real, and it's… https://t.co/SbHaf9TE6A — PolitiTweet.org