Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 10, 2022

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Thu Aug 27 18:02:43 +0000 2020

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn much closer to 75% than 60%. and if he were ahead by 8.5 pts w LVs on 11/1, i'd say 90-95% — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, just as there was a uniquely high chance of Trump winning w/ fewer votes '16, today I believe there's a uniquely high chance (maybe 3-4%) of a 269-269 tie, w/ Biden carrying PA/MI/#NE02 and no other Trump '16 turf - a scenario the House would likely decide in Trump's favor. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2016, @FiveThirtyEight's model gave Trump a 10.5% chance of winning the EC while losing the PV heading into election day - and frankly, I thought that was a bit low at the time. https://t.co/GIjxcNVFhi — PolitiTweet.org

most of this thread is reasonable, but this I think is quite speculatively priced. The 269-269 tie at 3.5c? Mode… https://t.co/EktJZ116hL

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated