Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 10, 2022

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Thu Aug 27 17:41:31 +0000 2020

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, despite what the state polling averages say, I still view Biden's path of least resistance to 270 Electoral Votes as MI, #NE02, PA and *AZ,* rather than FL or WI - based on demographic patterns and what we saw from hard votes in '18. Admittedly, it's a really close call. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That said!! Biden's lead to date is clearly more *stable* than Clinton's was throughout '16, with fewer undecided/third party voters. I still view him as the favorite. And I'd welcome those tempted to label me as a "concern troll" to judge me by @CookPolitical's work in '18. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, just as there was a uniquely high chance of Trump winning w/ fewer votes '16, today I believe there's a uniquely high chance (maybe 3-4%) of a 269-269 tie, w/ Biden carrying PA/MI/#NE02 and no other Trump '16 turf - a scenario the House would likely decide in Trump's favor. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated