Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In terms of young voters today, the same story holds. Yes, there's poll-by-poll variance. And yes, it's hard to harmonize different polls with different definitions. But the overall story is pretty clear: on average, his approval is under 50% Here, for ex, standard 'media' polls https://t.co/uKsAp94lGi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There is invariably quite a bit of noise, survey by survey. These are often small samples. That's why aggregation is important and why the alternative--where pollsters dwell on the crosstabs of their own single poll--is dangerous and routinely leads to some horrible stories — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's really important to aggregate national polling subgroup data together. It's necessary to tell important stories--like, say, Clinton's weakness among white working class voters back in '16 https://t.co/vPQ1DTmTKe https://t.co/WWViFMs3gP https://t.co/Ak8LAZAgsM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @BenjySarlin: "The bill quickly seems to be degenerating into a pricey heap of policy trash, much of which will probably blow away withi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @BrendanNyhan: Lots of problems with Senate malapportionment and the US electoral system in general but um... there is always a median v… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Makes sense, and I'd guess a lot of the answers are in Latin America, given the prevalence of the presidential system there https://t.co/V7X15A1em0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What other nations have midterm elections like the US, where the legislative branch is up for election halfway through the term of the executive, without party control of executive power at stake? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It'll be very interesting to see what the Democrats look like the next time they comes out of the wilderness, esp if they think they were there undeservedly. Election/democracy reform is one obvious area where the 2036 Dems might be very different https://t.co/uObKo9gnwx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JamesVGrimaldi: Who killed President Biden’s plan to provide two years of free community college tuition? Lobbying against it were four… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @TheOnion: ‘New York Times’ Releases Jerry Jones’ Hateful Telegrams Slamming Ottoman Empire https://t.co/0kqPx4oJz5 https://t.co/1VNMENV… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @vmsalama: And here's a video of President Biden and the late Colin Powell drag racing their Corvettes back in 2016. https://t.co/fKkyh8… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Neil_Irwin SEA v PIT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: How much of a potential dummymander is the IL Dem proposal? It draws a crazy-looking #IL17 from Rockford to Bloomington, bu… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And least verifiable, but entirely consistent with the above measures: Biden at 67% among early voters statewide based on some standard models synthesizing polling and voter file data — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Less verifiable: NYT/Siena respondents from VA over the years (4k respondents, mainly '18 congressional races, but also VA gov and national subsamples) who voted early had Trump approval of 31-68, v. 46-53 among full sample — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One verifiable measure (if you have a voter file) is primary vote history. By our definition (which isn't terribly sensitive), it's Dem 51, Rep 25 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are different ways of 'modeling partisanship' but there's not a real debate about what's going on Virginia: the early vote so far voted for Biden by about 2 to 1 https://t.co/3z9OjUpCqj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin but i'm not here to attack; i'll just say that i think the danger here is far less. this... --is at once transparent and comprehensive, including all components of change with well-understood sources --will not deceive anyone into thinking its a prediction of the future — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin to be entirely honest, i think the exercise of simulating incremental demographic change while holding everything else constant has plainly contributed to a some profoundly erroneous assumptions about politics with real world consequences — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin it's hard to express how completely aghast i am at hearing this kind of criticism from you! i mean, if you think there's a shred problematic about this tweet, i'd honestly think you have tens of thousands of words and dozens of reports to account for here? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin i agree--the point is that *other* people are making claims based on extrapolating current trends. ...but i really can't help but note that you have been the originator of a number of similar kinds of exercises — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @IChotiner: New Interview: I talked to retired general Don Bolduc, a Republican running for Senate in NH, about his loyalty to Donald Tr… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Returning to the point at the top: there's no need to expect this. But I do think there are some lessons here, perhaps especially in terms of how 'blue Texas' is essential for Dems to compensate if they face another round of losses among white working class voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The better news for Democrats: the electoral college-popular vote gap basically evaporates, as Texas becomes a singularly important near-US average tipping point state, sort of like NY at various points pre-New Deal — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The downside for the Democrats--part of the 'apocalypse Senate' case--is that the Democrats only win 23 states here, down from 25. That said, they're above 49 in two more states so it's not hugely different than the status quo. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A simple thought-experiment. What happens if you simply run the 2012 to 2020 trendline forward to 2028? Obviously there's no reason to expect this, but it is something to consider given the case that recent electoral trends are an unmitigated catastrophe for Democrats https://t.co/kyh43RcIUW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One possible middle ground in framing--though not really in substance: certification standards could be construed as an element of whether electoral votes are 'regularly given' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

None of this is to say that the Electoral Count Act is irrelevant, but my pretty strongly held view is that the dangers were already allowed to progress to a far, far more dangerous place than 2020 for the ECA to become the relevant factor — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

None of this is to say that the Electoral Count Act isn't a vulnerability, but my pretty strongly held view is that the dangers were already allowed to progress to a far more dangerous place than 2020 *before* the ECA becomes a real factor — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My April piece on subversion is not exhaustive by any stretch, but it does surprise me how often some of these threads--certification, eligibility challenges, partisan boards--are overlooked, given how they simply follow from actual 2020 efforts https://t.co/ibJ0BovSrN — PolitiTweet.org