Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 2, 2021

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Fri Oct 15 16:07:12 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One verifiable measure (if you have a voter file) is primary vote history. By our definition (which isn't terribly sensitive), it's Dem 51, Rep 25 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 15, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are different ways of 'modeling partisanship' but there's not a real debate about what's going on Virginia: the early vote so far voted for Biden by about 2 to 1 https://t.co/3z9OjUpCqj — PolitiTweet.org

What's going on with the partisan composition of Virginia's early vote? The models say ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://t.co/2aVwELqE3Z

Posted Oct. 15, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Less verifiable: NYT/Siena respondents from VA over the years (4k respondents, mainly '18 congressional races, but also VA gov and national subsamples) who voted early had Trump approval of 31-68, v. 46-53 among full sample — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 15, 2021