Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I want to return to a topic that started to concern me over the summer: the deteriorating relationship between live interview and online polls https://t.co/2O9rOjHw4o — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What are the best arguments for focus on Iowa state delegate equivalents, rather than vote count? (after all, the media usually calls statewide contests based on the popular vote, not whether a candidate has clinched a majority of pledged delegates) https://t.co/5kEoljNhZK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

After the last week of polls, that CNN poll showing Trump+1 in Texas looks like a stronger result (in relative terms) for the Democrats — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump approval, live interview Dec. polls of RVs: CNN: 44/52 Quinnipiac: 43/52 Suffolk: 48/50 Marist: 43/53 Fox: 45/53 Monmouth: 44/49 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NathanKalmoe: @BrendanNyhan This is one of my favorite charts showing the volatility of polls to votes in the first two states in the l… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump approval rating at 44.4 on the FiveThirtyEight tracker. For now, that puts him above his 44.3 percent standing from the day Pelosi announced the impeachment inquiry — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SeanTrende: It's a sin Jonathan Robinson only has 3k followers. He works for a progressive outfit, but he's one of those folks who rea… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @WisVoter: 6-12 months ago it looked (to me) like Trump had an uphill fight to win WI (<50%). Today, I don't see how either side can tru… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jon_m_rob: This such an unfortunate, simplistic, analysis from the AJC. There's good political science work on both distances to pollin… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RossRichendrfer classic trap — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@KevinQ Hey they got to beat LA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RossRichendrfer They have to beat LA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As it is, there are definitely some pollsters showing a consistent and wide gap and some that show very little. It doesn't seem to be question-wording to me. In our own polling, the gap is widest with low-turnout voters so it could be a reflection of variance there but IDK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This Fox poll throws another wrench in what I thought was kind-of-maybe-but-not-perfect pattern, where live polls (right or wrong) showed a big impeachment v. approval gap and online polls tended to show the two measures close together — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Is there any of the same denialism about the Labor --> Conservative/Johnson vote that there was/is in the US about Obama-Trump voters? https://t.co/0XijNJhR1S — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @IChotiner: New Interview: I talked to the political scientist David Runciman about the roots of Boris Johnson’s remarkable political su… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NewYorker: David Runciman, the author of the book “How Democracy Ends,” on the results of the U.K. election. https://t.co/Jl1cp6xL7p — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This does not doom the left to defeat. The right has lost many of its old strongholds as well. And things swing back and forth. But it will weigh on me if you want to argue that the next Democrat can go back to winning Youngstown by 20. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Again, each case is different, and perhaps each could be distinguished in isolation. Together, it seems that the left--whether in liberal, socialist, green, or whatever form--does not have in its arsenal a series of policies or messages that obviously resonates with its old base — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I wouldn't argue that the UK has predictive value for the US, but I would like to make an observation: though each case is different, the old bastions of the industrial-era left have often swung conservative--across the west--when they got a shot to vote for conservative populism — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes (and I'd note, AZ was the best for Dems in our poll. that doesn't prove anything, but it is quite consistent with the way I would be inclined to 'square' things) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes theoretically it's appx a net-50 pts, right? (50.1% of the vote in half of the population, 0-100 in the rest). In practice, a test is whether you think a state like AZ can leap-frog PA/MI/WI on the PVI list in 2020. If you do, then it's not hard to imagine 5 point PV-EC splits. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That ABC/Post poll isn't exaclty outlier-ish, but it doesn't exactly have a counter-balance on the other end. I think it's fair to wonder whether we would show Biden+7 or +6 in a national poll, if we had done one. I'd sure guess Monmouth would have, if they had. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

4) And--this is a little speculative--I do wonder whether the current average is a little on the high end of a hypothetical, comprehensive national poll average. The two worst national polls for Trump approval recently, Monmouth and Selzer, didn't ask about Biden-Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

3) Even leaving aside the possibility of change since '16 or the RV/LV issue, just take '16. Wisconsin was 3 points right of the USA. The average Marquette poll since Aug is Biden+3.25. NYT/Siena poll was Biden+3.5. So that's Biden+6 to 7 just using 2016 as the benchmark — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) There have long been signs in Marquette polling, going all the way back to early 17, that Trump was holding up relatively well in Wisconsin. This was pretty clearly confirmed in the exit polls, actual 2018 midterm results (and accuracy of final Marquette poll, I'd argue) https://t.co/9dj29J37cx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

1) These are polls of RVs. That helps Democrats in noncompetitive, diverse states, not in the Midwest. As a result, the national - tipping-point point gap grows in RV polls I mean, isn't this July chart a lot like these polls? https://t.co/11OAjuxrS8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'll make several observations--all of which I wrote about over the summer, long before these polls https://t.co/vITO72uG9a https://t.co/RoIMrjcfOn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think it's tough to reconcile the Marquette or NYT/Siena numbers with Biden+10. I think it's pretty easy to reconcile it with Biden+7 or even +8. https://t.co/jhjvKCkMUk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PollsAndVotes @RonBrownstein @WisVoter there's some luck in having this level of agreement, but i like it better than bad luck! — PolitiTweet.org