Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 20, 2020

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Fri Dec 13 19:23:21 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) There have long been signs in Marquette polling, going all the way back to early 17, that Trump was holding up relatively well in Wisconsin. This was pretty clearly confirmed in the exit polls, actual 2018 midterm results (and accuracy of final Marquette poll, I'd argue) https://t.co/9dj29J37cx — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

1) These are polls of RVs. That helps Democrats in noncompetitive, diverse states, not in the Midwest. As a result, the national - tipping-point point gap grows in RV polls I mean, isn't this July chart a lot like these polls? https://t.co/11OAjuxrS8 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

3) Even leaving aside the possibility of change since '16 or the RV/LV issue, just take '16. Wisconsin was 3 points right of the USA. The average Marquette poll since Aug is Biden+3.25. NYT/Siena poll was Biden+3.5. So that's Biden+6 to 7 just using 2016 as the benchmark — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 13, 2019 Hibernated