Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 20, 2020

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Fri Dec 13 19:32:08 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

4) And--this is a little speculative--I do wonder whether the current average is a little on the high end of a hypothetical, comprehensive national poll average. The two worst national polls for Trump approval recently, Monmouth and Selzer, didn't ask about Biden-Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

3) Even leaving aside the possibility of change since '16 or the RV/LV issue, just take '16. Wisconsin was 3 points right of the USA. The average Marquette poll since Aug is Biden+3.25. NYT/Siena poll was Biden+3.5. So that's Biden+6 to 7 just using 2016 as the benchmark — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That ABC/Post poll isn't exaclty outlier-ish, but it doesn't exactly have a counter-balance on the other end. I think it's fair to wonder whether we would show Biden+7 or +6 in a national poll, if we had done one. I'd sure guess Monmouth would have, if they had. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 13, 2019 Hibernated