Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 20, 2020

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Fri Dec 13 19:33:33 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That ABC/Post poll isn't exaclty outlier-ish, but it doesn't exactly have a counter-balance on the other end. I think it's fair to wonder whether we would show Biden+7 or +6 in a national poll, if we had done one. I'd sure guess Monmouth would have, if they had. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

4) And--this is a little speculative--I do wonder whether the current average is a little on the high end of a hypothetical, comprehensive national poll average. The two worst national polls for Trump approval recently, Monmouth and Selzer, didn't ask about Biden-Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes theoretically it's appx a net-50 pts, right? (50.1% of the vote in half of the population, 0-100 in the rest). In practice, a test is whether you think a state like AZ can leap-frog PA/MI/WI on the PVI list in 2020. If you do, then it's not hard to imagine 5 point PV-EC splits. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 13, 2019 Hibernated