Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you look at the data and Pete doesn't show up at all, or he's missing from a whole set of data from a call cent… https://t.co/EY4mKJRHRA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a technical matter, I don't really understand the ambiguity here. You program the questionnaire. His name would appear on all the computer screens of your interviewers. It would be fairly clear whether it was missed at one or all call centers? https://t.co/6OCKIt1jDD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: The survey was to be released live on @CNN at 8 Central but chyrons are off screen now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: News: The @DMRegister is weighing whether to release their @jaselzer poll as planned tonight after @PeteButtigieg camp compla… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Made this for an inquirer and thought it might be interesting to folks more generally https://t.co/t5xBTcu2Vz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Any educated guesses on what kind of turnout we might get out of the in-state satellite caucuses? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Forgot I did this already, but here's what you get if you take our data and go to the Selzer screen (at least from… https://t.co/WBeYc27YO7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Bottom-line: it's a very good poll. It's not perfect, and in this particular caucus, poll results are sensitive to methodological choices. We do know that this set of choices has generally yielded good results for Sanders, and the result can be judged with that in mind — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And self-reported likely voter screens will help you nail a surprising turnout, but there's no guarantee that those irregular voters turn out (perhaps the cause of Trump's overestimate in '16) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And there are real tradeoffs involved in elements of the Selzer approach. A simple set of weights creates some bias-variance tradeoff risks, especially on education (though not the biggest deal in IA), and may just straight up add variance on party reg if she doesn't quota on it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I only point this out because the Selzer poll has been put on a one-of-a-kind pedestal, not because these misses ar… https://t.co/BKX79NgCiD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That was true in the '16 caucus--see, Trump lead. It was even true in the '18 general--see, a Dem lead in the governors race. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) The Selzer poll is not perfect. It's good! Things it has going for it: no herding; a low design effect from a fairly simple set of weights; a really large sample for the caucus; the frame is the whole RV universe. But that does not assure a perfect result in this setting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I would even go so far as to say that if Biden led this poll, it would be fairly strong evidence of actual movement in his direction over the last week, given the larger sample size and the fairly clear evidence that a poll like Selzer would yield a Sanders lead as of a week ago — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But I point this out as a matter of benchmarking what to expect here. If Biden managed to lead this poll, I think that would be a really good result for Biden, since it generally makes choices that have tended to reduce his support (rightly or wrongly!) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, the DMR poll is not perfect. It's a poll; polls aren't perfect. It hasn't been perfect in the past. And these methodological choices are unusually sensitive in this caucus, and none of the options are prefect. If Sanders leads, it doesn't mean he's going to win — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Beyond that, the stringent self-reported likely voter screen and the absence of education weights are particularly bad for Biden, who has been at just 15 percent and no better than tied for fourth in the last two DMR polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Similarly, it's methodologically quite a bit like our poll, which found Sanders+7. Like our poll, the frame includ… https://t.co/WoEk7qLvZj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Last time it was in the field it found Sanders ahead, and Sanders has generally gained in polls since then. One easy marker: in early Jan., it was a net-11 pts better for Sanders in the matchup v Biden than Monmouth; the more recent Monmouth poll was Biden+2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

1) Whether the poll is 'right' or wrong, I would certainly expect Sanders to lead this poll if the race hasn't changed much over the last week. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, tonight we get the Selzer/DMR/CNN poll out of Iowa, perhaps our last best marker of the race heading into the caucus. A few thoughts heading into it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @UpshotNYT: Fifteen of the people we polled agreed to talk to us on camera. https://t.co/I8hyVZQOl8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@larrybuch I'll grant that the subset of poll respondents who choose to do an NYT video may not be wholly represent… https://t.co/FtJh51TUr9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

10 of the respondents to the Times/Siena poll talked to @larrybuch and a Times video team. It's fun to see them in… https://t.co/RURbIVQhDG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @WhoaInteresting: Hawk's head stabilization https://t.co/ABgV0LU9Tt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject it may not defy all past iowa caucuses — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@b_schaffner @A_agadjanian @Anthony_Rentsch @justinhgross yup — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@b_schaffner @A_agadjanian @Anthony_Rentsch @justinhgross fwiw our poll also puts the youth share of the self-repor… https://t.co/8cqA6luR6I — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@b_schaffner @A_agadjanian @Anthony_Rentsch @justinhgross our poll put it at 22.5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@b_schaffner @A_agadjanian @Anthony_Rentsch @justinhgross i mean i can tell you what our poll implies but otherwise no, not really — PolitiTweet.org