Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 8, 2020

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Sat Feb 01 17:31:53 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And there are real tradeoffs involved in elements of the Selzer approach. A simple set of weights creates some bias-variance tradeoff risks, especially on education (though not the biggest deal in IA), and may just straight up add variance on party reg if she doesn't quota on it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I only point this out because the Selzer poll has been put on a one-of-a-kind pedestal, not because these misses ar… https://t.co/BKX79NgCiD — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And self-reported likely voter screens will help you nail a surprising turnout, but there's no guarantee that those irregular voters turn out (perhaps the cause of Trump's overestimate in '16) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2020 Hibernated