Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 8, 2020

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Sat Feb 01 17:23:47 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I would even go so far as to say that if Biden led this poll, it would be fairly strong evidence of actual movement in his direction over the last week, given the larger sample size and the fairly clear evidence that a poll like Selzer would yield a Sanders lead as of a week ago — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But I point this out as a matter of benchmarking what to expect here. If Biden managed to lead this poll, I think that would be a really good result for Biden, since it generally makes choices that have tended to reduce his support (rightly or wrongly!) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) The Selzer poll is not perfect. It's good! Things it has going for it: no herding; a low design effect from a fairly simple set of weights; a really large sample for the caucus; the frame is the whole RV universe. But that does not assure a perfect result in this setting — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2020 Hibernated