Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, there's a ton of time for the political environment to veer back. The stock market could be interpreted as a salient signal on that front. No one would have predicted what's happened over the last few months; who knows what will happen next. But for now, it is what it is — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't think it is at all clear that the typical incumbent president would be a favorite to win, at least if you stipulate that the public thought they had performed so poorly on coronavirus (an ordinary incumbent who handled it well probably would be a favorite) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is part of why I've been fairly optimistic about Trump's chances over the last few years: the pace of economic growth would make an ordinary incumbent favored to win reelection, and his approval ratings were not nearly so bad as to stop it. But that's not so true anymore — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A related lesson, for me, is that Trump should be treated like an ordinary candidate for electoral-analysis purposes. He was not DOA in 2016 when the fundamentals said he should be competitive; he wasn't invincible in 2018 when GOP should struggle. https://t.co/EzGq3xFUJZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One broader question that only time will resolve is whether the 2020 polling will resemble 2016's predictable, mean-reverting, sine-curve-like oscillations between Trump and Clinton https://t.co/Cfwz039fkT https://t.co/g0BuRJKsgc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@b_schaffner @mattyglesias one marginal factor i keep glossing over without rigorous analysis is the declining black share of nonwhite voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@b_schaffner @mattyglesias tho look at the numbers — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And at least for now, Biden's showing among white voters without a degree is quite impressive compared to Clinton. That hasn't previously been true so far in this campaign, and it does help explain why the Trump team doesn't like what it's seeing in Ohio and Iowa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden is still maintaining his startling edge among voters over age 65, but the relationship between age and presidential vote looks a bit more typical. Biden's now faring better among voters under age 65 than over age 65. And he's ahead of Clinton now among 18-34 year olds — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Perhaps surprisingly, Biden doesn't appear to have really made any gains whatsoever among men or nonwhite voters compared to Hillary Clinton four years ago. He may even be fairing a bit worse among those groups — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

New polls show Biden building a wide 10 point lead over the president His advantage is driven by a gigantic advantage among women and gains among white voters without a degree https://t.co/Cfwz039fkT https://t.co/QXeQdWG6Y8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

it was https://t.co/2VCucM3vzM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's another memo where McLaughlin said a poll was wrong: FL-26, where he contended that our final NYT/Siena poll (DMP (D)+1) fails the simplest of stress tests. He had Curbelo (R)+10 there. The final result was DMP+2 https://t.co/uQzhYoxZeu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are no substantive points. There's an assertion that there are too few Republicans. Could be--always could be--but there's no actual evidence. The '16 exit isn't relevant, and his opinion doesn't have any independent weight https://t.co/W5GQCMK6In — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

hey, that VA07 primary could have been tough to poll! these house races were not, and we know because we polled several of these same races at about the same time and had an average error that was appx. 15 points better than this https://t.co/YANgFAyRJ3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And, look, let's be honest. The record doesn't get prettier if you look farther back — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Perhaps the worst pollster of 2018 https://t.co/Sl3jUkt1Ki — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: Texas Republican up for re-election this fall > https://t.co/2QF8izxDP9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As far as I can tell, this is true of most/all of the recent live phone polls going right now https://t.co/nJ2hUUJIZv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is true if you look look at most of the live phone polls going around right now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you take all the recent polls together, Biden's clearly made larger gains among white voters and particularly white voters without a degree since March/April than nonwhite voters or white col voters. If so, that would *tend* to attenuate his E.C. disadvantage, at least for now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's on the assumption that white voters--and perhaps especially northern whites without a degree, overrepresented in the battlegrounds--are relatively elastic and swing more than the nation as a whole. IMO, that checks out if you look at the tabs of national polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My prior is that the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote *shrinks* as Biden's lead grows, and therefore would be smaller now, and gets wider as the race gets closer. Just how much idk https://t.co/r4mksnlC06 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And, look I understand why people are distrustful of the polls after what happened four years ago, but right now, Biden's would easily withstand another 2016-sized polling error or a wide gap between the Electoral College and the nation as a whole — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And, look I understand why people are distrustful of the polls after what happened four years ago, but right now, Biden's would easily withstanding another 2016-sized polling error or a wide gap between the Electoral College and the nation as a whole — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That basically gives us a full 'wave' of the major national polls for the first time since 3/15-4/15, and Biden's lead has grown by an average of 4 points since then https://t.co/PV2MTuXKSy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden leads by a wide 14 point margin, 55 to 41 percent, among registered voters in the new CNN/SSRS poll https://t.co/XXYe4HksGW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jacknicas: The NYT's top opinion editor just lost his job over a very dumb op-ed last week. Meanwhile, all weekend this has been the W… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ZekeJMiller: WASHINGTON (AP) — Joe Biden formally clinches Democratic presidential nomination, setting up election challenge to Preside… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PatrickRuffini: The primary feels like years ago, but I still have a nagging question: What happened to Bloomberg's $1B in campaign spe… — PolitiTweet.org