Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 6, 2021

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Mon Jun 08 15:46:32 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My prior is that the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote *shrinks* as Biden's lead grows, and therefore would be smaller now, and gets wider as the race gets closer. Just how much idk https://t.co/r4mksnlC06 — PolitiTweet.org

One thing that likely *hasn't* changed as Biden's lead has grown: the pro-Trump gap between the Electoral College *… https://t.co/r7GIBck5A8

Posted June 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And, look I understand why people are distrustful of the polls after what happened four years ago, but right now, Biden's would easily withstand another 2016-sized polling error or a wide gap between the Electoral College and the nation as a whole — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's on the assumption that white voters--and perhaps especially northern whites without a degree, overrepresented in the battlegrounds--are relatively elastic and swing more than the nation as a whole. IMO, that checks out if you look at the tabs of national polls — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 8, 2020 Hibernated