Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 6, 2021

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Tue Jun 09 15:47:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is part of why I've been fairly optimistic about Trump's chances over the last few years: the pace of economic growth would make an ordinary incumbent favored to win reelection, and his approval ratings were not nearly so bad as to stop it. But that's not so true anymore — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 9, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A related lesson, for me, is that Trump should be treated like an ordinary candidate for electoral-analysis purposes. He was not DOA in 2016 when the fundamentals said he should be competitive; he wasn't invincible in 2018 when GOP should struggle. https://t.co/EzGq3xFUJZ — PolitiTweet.org

For me, the lesson of 2016 was that I was relying too little on polling. I should have paid more attention to Trump… https://t.co/AfxLY1Xm7Q

Posted June 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't think it is at all clear that the typical incumbent president would be a favorite to win, at least if you stipulate that the public thought they had performed so poorly on coronavirus (an ordinary incumbent who handled it well probably would be a favorite) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 9, 2020 Hibernated