Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

5 of the 8 firms with more than 30 have been guessed: ABC/Post Monmouth Siena alone NYT/Siena Selzer The two of the final three are quite controversial — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking farther, there are another 3 pollsters with between 20-30 polls and qualify by this measure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking farther, there are another 3 pollsters in the 20s by this measure. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Oh one other important caveat I should have mentioned: I am only looking at pollsters that have at least 30 final polls, just bc a long time ago 538 wrote that they considered that the threshold for whether are results are predictive — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's say a poll is Clinton+1, the average of other polls is Clinton+2, and the result is Trump+1. You have beaten the average of other polls by 1 percentage point. There are just 8 pollsters that haven beaten the average, on average. https://t.co/CqeUNYeSDZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(weighted by number of competitors, so you don't get much credit for beating one other poll, of course). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's a game: there are 8 pollsters who, on average, have beaten the average of all the other polls in a race Name them — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict that's it? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: McEnany says the president didn’t see the video of paintballs being shot by a caravan of his supporters in Portland. Didnt h… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Daily case numbers (and to a lesser extent deaths) are falling, and growth is the big correlate of COVID media coverage / probably voter anxiety as well. TLDR: people feel better if things are getting better https://t.co/lMXUZvXacn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think people sense that the issue environment has changed in a way that *could* benefit Trump: crime/unrest is more salient; COVID less salient. I think that's plausible. Whether it's true, consequential, or lasting is all speculation https://t.co/hguzhwFKNu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(that said, the news out of kenosha etc has generally increased the chance that a pollster goes into the field next week. so we'll see) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(many firms like to poll post-Labor Day or post-convention, but you wouldn't do both this year. as a result, we'll be a little worse off at both points, and my uninformed guess is that most will opt for post-Labor Day over next weekend, delaying when we'll get a handle on things) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And until we get a clear picture I'll repeat myself again: it's going to be a bit until we get a solid wave of post-convention polls, and I think Labor Day could even throw us back even further than usual. We're going to need to be patient. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I wouldn't usually pay much attention to this particular result, but since we're in a sparse polling environment right now, I'll echo what a few others have already said: this is just not where Trump wants to be in FL-13 coming out of his convention https://t.co/YjWydSIi4Z — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytmike: EXCLUSIVE: From my new book .. DOJ in '17 secretly curtailed FBI counterintel investigation of Trump financial/personal ties t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ByMikeBaker: Clashes. Trump people unload paintballs and pepper spray. They shot me too. https://t.co/PwU5pZMLnV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, this is all an exercise. Who knows what the post-convention polls will look like in a week. And even then, we'll still have to wait longer before we see whether any movement persists. Bottom line: we won't have a great sense of where we're at until 9/14 or so — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the context of a bounce, Biden+6 is not a great number for Trump. After all, bounces are usually... bounces. Looking back, incumbent presidents would usually be expected to fare worse than their standing post-convention. Minus-6 it's not exactly what you want your upside to be — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Leaving aside the context of a 'bounce' for a second: Biden+6 is a tough number for analysts. Biden's still the fav, but it's getting into the zone where it doesn't take *that* much of a polling error with *that* much of an Electoral College edge for Trump to get a close race — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But since we're bored waiting for our computers to run some code, let's just suppose for a moment that Trump does get a bounce and it's exactly as Morning Consult depicts here, and we've got Biden+6 by the end of next week. What would I take from it? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As I said before the conventions, we're probably not going to have a clear picture of the race until a week after Labor Day. For one, we're just going to need to wait to see whether any bumps persist. More importantly, I just don't expect too many high-quality polls until then — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have our first post-RNC poll: Morning Consult with Biden+6, down from Biden+10 post-DNC and Biden ~+9 pre-DNC. https://t.co/UAU2h5qPuK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @pppapin: A bit late, but check out this comparison the ECMWF EPS vs. GEFSv12 comparison of #Hurricane #Laura track in the Gulf of Mexic… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@CitizenCohn @BenjySarlin i went on youtube this am. saw the ad. clicked to see what they were promoting. i clicked out after 5 sec of silence. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

sorry, i meant former. my bad. probably too late to delete and i don't think leaving it up will damage our society, so please accept the correction. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What the national polls have been suggesting for months: significant Biden inroads among *both* white voters with and without a degree, even if the latter is somewhat more pronounced https://t.co/Wurlw19EYs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But does Nielson weight by education? https://t.co/5bp81n4jz7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Eggymceggerson3 give a speech; air ads about his views on the issue; could even speak direct to the camera on it. these are just a few of the options you can consider — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One caution: each sample is a week long, so it takes a bit of time for something like a convention bounce to work in or out. It'll be a while until we have a full post-RNC poll here; similarly, this never gives a full picture of Biden's post-DNC bump before the RNC — PolitiTweet.org