Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Tue Sep 01 12:21:40 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's say a poll is Clinton+1, the average of other polls is Clinton+2, and the result is Trump+1. You have beaten the average of other polls by 1 percentage point. There are just 8 pollsters that haven beaten the average, on average. https://t.co/CqeUNYeSDZ — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn What do you mean by "beaten the average?"

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(weighted by number of competitors, so you don't get much credit for beating one other poll, of course). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Oh one other important caveat I should have mentioned: I am only looking at pollsters that have at least 30 final polls, just bc a long time ago 538 wrote that they considered that the threshold for whether are results are predictive — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated