Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Aug 29 16:15:57 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the context of a bounce, Biden+6 is not a great number for Trump. After all, bounces are usually... bounces. Looking back, incumbent presidents would usually be expected to fare worse than their standing post-convention. Minus-6 it's not exactly what you want your upside to be — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Leaving aside the context of a 'bounce' for a second: Biden+6 is a tough number for analysts. Biden's still the fav, but it's getting into the zone where it doesn't take *that* much of a polling error with *that* much of an Electoral College edge for Trump to get a close race — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, this is all an exercise. Who knows what the post-convention polls will look like in a week. And even then, we'll still have to wait longer before we see whether any movement persists. Bottom line: we won't have a great sense of where we're at until 9/14 or so — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated