Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Aug 29 16:13:44 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Leaving aside the context of a 'bounce' for a second: Biden+6 is a tough number for analysts. Biden's still the fav, but it's getting into the zone where it doesn't take *that* much of a polling error with *that* much of an Electoral College edge for Trump to get a close race — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But since we're bored waiting for our computers to run some code, let's just suppose for a moment that Trump does get a bounce and it's exactly as Morning Consult depicts here, and we've got Biden+6 by the end of next week. What would I take from it? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the context of a bounce, Biden+6 is not a great number for Trump. After all, bounces are usually... bounces. Looking back, incumbent presidents would usually be expected to fare worse than their standing post-convention. Minus-6 it's not exactly what you want your upside to be — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated