Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If this is sustained in other polls (big "if") it's very likely due to the public's reaction to the invasion of Ukraine more than the State of the Union itself. https://t.co/IqPvWWQX2Y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know what the average Russian thinks but I also don't really see how you can have reliable polling results in a country that's shut down independent media and imprisoned dissenters. Note that they can't even call it a "war" or "invasion". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@K_G_Andersen You specifically are extremely untrustworthy on this issue, Kristian. I might be wrong but at least I'm honest. https://t.co/Xp4iz6a2Ly — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think parsimony is the principle you want to invoke here since the lab-leak argument relies heavily on parsimony, e.g. lab leak advocates will say it probably wasn't a coincidence a novel coronavirus emerged in a city with a world-famous lab for studying coronaviruses. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is an esoteric complaint but I wish the Doomsday Clock had remained focused on the threat of nuclear war specifically instead of blending it with climate change under some vague notion of manmade existential risks (while other manmade risks e.g. AI). https://t.co/BmurgyvDSF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Yeah, there's a certain lawyerly slight-of-hand in like firmly establishing that the defendant was at the crime scene and making a big show of that to the jury, and hoping in so doing they ignore that you haven't found a weapon or provided anything beyond circumstantial evidence. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm all for bashing bad expert predictions but this is basically The Sun Rose in the East This Morning—Here's Why The Experts Got It So Wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm... not sure I buy the premise here? I found Russia's invasion of Ukraine *extremely non-surprising*, not because of any particular insight but because it had been *explicitly predicted by the President of the United States*. https://t.co/y8CU3giYyl https://t.co/E5bVpynyJw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a poker guy I'm generally fond of poker metaphors but this doesn't really work in the context of nuclear deterrence. It's not so much that Putin's hand is weak but that if Putin decided to go all-in, *both* players lose all their chips. https://t.co/jCIE0blWmw https://t.co/CijPjz3NzK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

After years of learning to calibrate my sense of "what's really happening" in incredibly partisan news environments, it's weird to encounter a story in which nearly everyone (very much including me) is rooting for the same outcome (Ukraine repelling the invasion). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ne0liberal Looking forward to SWIFT Globalist Class on my next flight to Stockholm. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Market has overadjusted and we're at the point now where it's often faster to get a taxi than a rideshare at many airports. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit Leaves politics to become the first-line center for CSKA Moscow, where he improbably becomes the KHL's leading scorer at age 69. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The pandemic isn't over but as far as I can tell the Ukraine invasion is really the first story to fully displace COVID from A1 headlines. Even the CDC's major changes to mask guidance on Friday barely produced any commentary. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin Yeah the experts in the story are basically like "we don't like Leonhardt's vibes" rather than "we dispute his conclusion that the benefits of COVID restrictions no longer outweigh the costs". I think it makes the experts look pretty unpersuasive tbh. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@cwarzel IDK I think it revealed that a lot of people are very uncomfortable with *talking* about risk and/or lack the vocabulary to do it. I actually think most people's private risk calculations were fairly rational and that laypeople were possibly more rational than experts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Goes against my expectations a bit (I'd have thought more Republicans were insincere about the Big Lie) but this looks like a pretty robust study. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think this might be the signature attribute of Very Onlineism and also a singular problem with Twitter since it makes it extremely easy to take other people's thought fragments and redeposit them into your own context. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's been like 6 times when I've almost tweeted (in response to a possible long-term decline in demand for office space) "By late 2023, NYT Styles will be writing about how Midtown is Actually Cool, Maybe?" but it turns out that would have been 18 months behind schedule. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EsotericCD IDK, except for a handful of tankies and Putin-philes, it's been a long time since I've seen American liberals and conservatives in my timeline agreeing on so much. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias One of my priors (subject to revision) is we should think of Putin as dealing from a position of weakness rather than strength. Which means higher risk, shorter time horizons, and/or increased willingness to accept tactical victories in lieu of improved strategic positioning. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While this is a funny headline, it's worth noting that Putin's approval rating among Republicans was still only 18%, so sympathy toward Putin expressed by Trump or Tucker Carlson or whomever else has real potential to split the Republican coalition. https://t.co/CEiC2v7XbT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit DeSantis right now. https://t.co/lpW4QMOuQe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But it does make for a moving target. On any given day, you'll hear elements of: 1) what restrictions? we're already back to normal! 2) maintaining restrictions will help us get back to normal sooner! 3) we don't want to go back to normal because normal sucked! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's always been a "never let a good crisis go to waste" / "the old normal sucked anyway" element among *some* COVID hawks. Though, I don't think it describes the all or most COVID hawks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of completely insane takes on here trying to graft various domestic policy grievances onto Ukraine. But it's mostly people trying to cope with an uncertain and scary situation by groping for something familiar. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@smotus Yeah, it's definitely one of those "striking but unfortunately not surprising" moments. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki I think you can perhaps fairly argue that those Northeastern states deserve a mulligan because they got hit first and didn't know any better. But still, this is the list of deaths per capita as of Jan. 1, 2021 (i.e. before widespread vaccine availability). https://t.co/kY81py65mZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki I mean, a lot of the blue states that got hit very hard in spring 2020 have tons of excess deaths but relatively few cases since there were ~no tests back then. If you actually looked at *infections* (i.e. seropositivity), they'd be high on that list, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki Pre-vaccines, there was little correlation between NPI stringency and excess deaths. Post-vaccines, there has been a strong correlation between vax uptake and excess deaths. So I don't think you can lump NPIs and vaccines together here. — PolitiTweet.org