Deleted tweet detection is currently running at reduced
capacity due to changes to the Twitter API. Some tweets that have been
deleted by the tweet author may not be labeled as deleted in the PolitiTweet
interface.
Showing page 22 of 910.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
"Don't try to predict the direction of polling error" is a lesson people are incredibly stubborn about learning. — PolitiTweet.org
Ryan Matsumoto @ryanmatsumoto1
One of the bigger polling misses tonight: New Hampshire. The @FiveThirtyEight polling average had Hassan up 2 poin… https://t.co/fSIX1G7ppg
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Tonight's election is brought to you by FiveThirtyEight simulation #16612. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A chance, sure. Only 2 of the 33 closest races have been called yet. Democrats would have to win nearly all of them, though, or pull off some upsets in the "likely Republican" category. They do currently lead in most of them, though. — PolitiTweet.org
Frida Ghitis @FridaGhitis
@NateSilver538 Is there a realistic chance that Dems can hold the House?
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In the pure tossups, Democrats are ahead in 8 and the GOP in 2 (note that this only counts races where there's enough of the vote counted for the ABC News touchscreen to show me numbers). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In House races rated as tossup or "lean" by 538, Democrats currently lead in 17 and Republicans in 7. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@jbview Yeah. If there were some big upset tonight, like Ohio or Colorado, we could probably *infer* the outcome. But even then, I doubt we'll get a network call. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@jbarro Tracking results on election night is one of the best use-cases for prediction markets. Very much an issue where crowdsourcing helps, you can undoubtedly make $ if you focus on particular states or districts and delve into detail on the returns there. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Still a lot of uncertainty but I think we can put a little bit more weight in the middle part of the bell curve in terms of the distribution of possible outcomes tonight, and a little bit less on the tails. Maybe a fair bit of regional variation. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Pretty big difference between prediction markets and The Needle. https://t.co/IO2EQoQqi9 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Reminder: FiveThirtyEight liveblog here, we'll be going all night. https://t.co/qi7byRXlKU — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@NateDuncanNBA Can you just pretend the Hornets, Pacers and Kings don't exist? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Republicans closed strongly in the polls and so as you might expect they went over 50% winning chances in some of races where they'd been just below 50% before. But a 55/45 forecast one way is not that different from 55/45 the other way. It's a forecast that says "who knows?". — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
People still have some weird conceptions about what the 538 model does. It's a computer program that ingests polls and other data and turns it into a probabilistic forecast. We don't intervene with it in to change a particular forecast. It is an automated process. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@injuryexpert @NateDuncanNBA Yeah, the Nuggets and Jazz have a pretty significant home-court advantage, so would be even more significant for a CDMX franchise. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@NateDuncanNBA Las Vegas is a way better spectator sports city than you'd think (I was skeptical before the Golden Knights debuted there). If it was up to me, I'd add all 3; no particular reason for the NBA to have an even number of teams. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We DO already have our liveblog going, which is where you'll mostly find me today/tonight (along with on TV for ABC News!). The goal here is more to preview tonight than analyze turnout etc. tea leaves. https://t.co/qi7byRXlKU — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
* Exit polls have good years and bad ones. But as more votes are cast early or by mail, I'm skeptical of their ability to add much if any predictive value. * I hate pre-mortems. We'll have all the time in the world to discuss *why* questions once we know *what* happened. 2/2 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In case you're wondering, I probably won't have a lot to say about the election on this account **until votes actually start coming in tonight**. * Reports of turnout more noise than signal unless you're very careful (and this is not really an area I specialize in). 1/2 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Entrepreneurs tend to be hedgehogs, and hedgehogs often produce a lot of positive externalities for society, but they do less well than foxes when straying outside their areas of expertise. (This is a subtweet.) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Chris_arnade @FiveThirtyEight My guess is the 538 Deluxe model's guess! At earlier points in the cycle I had a view that slightly diverged from it but now I've fully defaulted to "trust the Deluxe". — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @FiveThirtyEight: .@NateSilver538’s final #Election2022 update: The forecast is more or less back where it started https://t.co/XTLngtNr… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also gotta say: if polls are *exactly right* we're in for a lot of photo-finishes in the Senate, maybe including a runoff in Georgia. I'm not confident about what happens in those cases. People are rightly worried about election denialism for 2024 but I'm also concerned *now*. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
And... here's my longer analysis. Lots of other coverage at FiveThirtyEight. https://t.co/bt4stFqvc8 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Longer overview coming shortly. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In the House, Republicans are considerably more definitive favorites: 84% in Deluxe, 82% in Classic and 75% in Lite. Still, you shouldn't round their chances up to 100%. It wouldn't require **that** large of a polling/forecaster error for the House to be competitive. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Republicans have a 59% chance of winning the Senate, according to our final Deluxe forecast. It's closer in our alternative models: R chances are 51% in the Lite (polls-only) forecast, and also 51% in Classic (polls + fundamentals but no expert ratings). https://t.co/ImBoBkYi5b — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Final FiveThirtyEight midterms model run kicking off right now! Not much in the way of last-minute data so shouldn't be too much difference from what you see on the site right now tbh. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@joshtpm Yeah, the special elections over the summer loom particularly as a discordant data point that people sort of have amnesia about. I trust our forecast (Rs modest favorites in Senate, bigger in House) but I think it's correct to assume there could be a miss in *either* direction. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This is a more subjective observation, but something about coverage of polling/forecasting in this particular election has felt especially risk-averse and narrative-driven, e.g. NYT framing polls that were obviously good news for Democrats as good news for Republicans instead. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This is a subtle and easy-to-overlook point. It may seem like lots of evidence is pointing in the same direction, but there's not necessarily that much *independent* evidence. A lot of the evidence is drawn from the same sources or is derivative of the other evidence. — PolitiTweet.org
Taniel @Taniel
This is not to say things will be better for Dems than you now expect — in fact this goes both ways, ie could mean… https://t.co/fCKTpckd8r
