Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated No

Last Checked Dec. 9, 2022

Created

Tue Nov 08 02:37:46 +0000 2022

Likes

474

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a more subjective observation, but something about coverage of polling/forecasting in this particular election has felt especially risk-averse and narrative-driven, e.g. NYT framing polls that were obviously good news for Democrats as good news for Republicans instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2022

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a subtle and easy-to-overlook point. It may seem like lots of evidence is pointing in the same direction, but there's not necessarily that much *independent* evidence. A lot of the evidence is drawn from the same sources or is derivative of the other evidence. — PolitiTweet.org

This is not to say things will be better for Dems than you now expect — in fact this goes both ways, ie could mean… https://t.co/fCKTpckd8r

Posted Nov. 8, 2022

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah, the special elections over the summer loom particularly as a discordant data point that people sort of have amnesia about. I trust our forecast (Rs modest favorites in Senate, bigger in House) but I think it's correct to assume there could be a miss in *either* direction. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2022