Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 9, 2022

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Tue Nov 08 05:02:39 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Final FiveThirtyEight midterms model run kicking off right now! Not much in the way of last-minute data so shouldn't be too much difference from what you see on the site right now tbh. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah, the special elections over the summer loom particularly as a discordant data point that people sort of have amnesia about. I trust our forecast (Rs modest favorites in Senate, bigger in House) but I think it's correct to assume there could be a miss in *either* direction. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Republicans have a 59% chance of winning the Senate, according to our final Deluxe forecast. It's closer in our alternative models: R chances are 51% in the Lite (polls-only) forecast, and also 51% in Classic (polls + fundamentals but no expert ratings). https://t.co/ImBoBkYi5b — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2022