Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So maybe the mediocre polling shows a tie in certain states. But because it's mediocre polling, you need to hedge against that with your prior, which is that Republicans will win in red states. A *trustworthy* poll showing Republicans narrowly ahead is consistent with that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other thing is that polling in smaller states that aren't presidential swing states tends not to be great. You'll get some mix of internals, colleges that do good research but don't usually focus on the horse race, and online pollsters venturing a bit out of their depth. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And while it's tempting to think that all of these races will break in the same direction (so e.g. either Democrats lose all 4 or say win 3 of 4 in an epic landslide) this is a pretty quirky set of states/candidates/circumstances so I'm not sure that's necessarily true. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general, our forecasts have been very steady in these states and the Upshot/Siena polls showing narrow Republican leads have been right in line with our model's expectations. https://t.co/hQmmekjjW5 https://t.co/eXKFTgV1jS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is true but I think a lot of the problem is that expectations ran a little ahead of themselves in states where Democrats have a decent shot (and still do) but Republicans were always favored. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our post-debate poll with @Ipsos shows that voters liked Biden's performance better, but there was basically no change in who they intend to vote for. https://t.co/2jg9WMD1w8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There really is kind of a parallel universe of Trump-friendly polls that are on a completely different planet from the polling consensus. The polling world is not unlike the rest of the media in that regard. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin Happy Comey Day to you, sir. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @DataDhrumil: Hello! It's me. Professor Polls. Welcome to POLLING 101. Grab a seat, and let's talk about how polling works...and wha… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin On top of that, the WSJ fiasco with the Hunter Biden story was probably the last chance for that story to be taken seriously by the mainstream/non-partisan media, for better or worse. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin Yeah, I think the takes were right directionally, but this is a weird case where a non-event (the debate probably won't change many minds) is a big deal and maybe people are underestimating it magnitude-wise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump can win. It's mathematically possible that polls could be waayyy off or something could come from totally out of the blue. But there are also a lot of things working against him in the final 11 days. COVID cases are rising. He's way behind in $. And 50m have already voted. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I know this point was made repeatedly last night including by me, but after sleeping on it, I wonder if people aren't still underrating the importance of the debate having been Trump's best remaining opportunity to climb back into the race and it seemingly having been squandered. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @elizashapiro: It seems increasingly like the choice to keep elementary schools closed in places where the virus is contained and there… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @aedwardslevy: I realize this is beating a dead horse, but...SSRS, CNN's pollster, also conducts some of their polling online (their pos… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The margin here is close enough to the overall margin in the horse race than I wouldn't expect too much change in the polls. But, of course, this was perhaps Trump's best remaining opportunity to turn the race around and he doesn't appear to have done it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is about what I would have expected. Trump lost all 5 of his general election debates (2 against Biden and 3 against Clinton) per CNN polling. This was actually the second-closest margin out of those (he lost the final debate in 2016 by 13 points). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@marcambinder Wanna guess what the post-debate polls will say? I think reporters pay *more* attention to style than the public does, in part because they know the policy stuff and it doesn't seem newsworthy to them. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of very Halperin-esque takes on here that elevate style above substance re: Trump's performance tonight. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hey folks: This is probably going to be the LAST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE EVER FEATURING DONALD TRUMP. We're liveblogging it, of course: https://t.co/SfPGDi72mX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And you can order Fivey merch right here! https://t.co/LzBRZG6VTe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah. Even if you take the account at face value (which, maybe you shouldn't given that the WSJ newsroom seemingly couldn't get there with the story) there really isn't very much there at all that would seem to be damaging to *Joe* Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Although the Midwest (win back PA/WI/MI) path is Biden's path of least resistance, FL and NC are *close enough* to the tipping point to serve as viable backup options for him if something goes wrong in the Midwest. Same with AZ, where there's been a bit of a lack of polls lately. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A few key takeaways: * The state polls haven't moved as much as national polls have. * Biden's gains in PA/WI/MI in particular have been quite modest. * But he's had more pronounced gains in the South, namely FL/NC and (although they probably won't be the tipping point) TX/GA. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Quick snapshot of how the polls have changed since the first debate. https://t.co/AlOBLTrTin — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So the big WSJ story the Trump folks were buzzing about is going to be in the ... opinion section? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Test positivity rates are slightly lower than the summer peak and considerably lower than the spring peak, but the trajectory is very bad, it's getting colder, nobody is locking down, and the European data is fairly frightening. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It would seem pretty likely that we're going to have some days with record-setting COVID case counts before the election. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Normie Democrats and the media are *paying a lot more attention* to voting rights and voter suppression now (long overdue, IMO). But in general, voting will be easier in 2020 than it was in 2016, even if it's not as easy as it should be in some states. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So…I do think it's worth mentioning that the pendulum has swung somewhat from contracting voting rights to expanding them over the past few years, and certainly many of the COVID-related changes (many of which are ostensibly temporary) count as expansive. https://t.co/0ngCtfP8fZ — PolitiTweet.org