Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 31, 2021

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Fri Oct 23 18:15:11 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And while it's tempting to think that all of these races will break in the same direction (so e.g. either Democrats lose all 4 or say win 3 of 4 in an epic landslide) this is a pretty quirky set of states/candidates/circumstances so I'm not sure that's necessarily true. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general, our forecasts have been very steady in these states and the Upshot/Siena polls showing narrow Republican leads have been right in line with our model's expectations. https://t.co/hQmmekjjW5 https://t.co/eXKFTgV1jS — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other thing is that polling in smaller states that aren't presidential swing states tends not to be great. You'll get some mix of internals, colleges that do good research but don't usually focus on the horse race, and online pollsters venturing a bit out of their depth. — PolitiTweet.org

This is true but I think a lot of the problem is that expectations ran a little ahead of themselves in states where… https://t.co/MgmhVgVgll

Posted Oct. 23, 2020 Hibernated