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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias Has a Vowel-Shifting American ever been elected president? Ford has a trace here I guess although he wasn't *elected*. https://t.co/7fef9l7w9o — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
*Best* case scenario for the GOP is now a *very* narrow House majority while Dems keep a 50-50 Senate majority. Worst case, Dems actually gain a Senate seat and keep the House. Either way, 2022 joins 1934, 1962, 1998 and 2002 as an "asterisk" midterm. https://t.co/ky5OklaAlW — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@TomDwan In general my prior is that campaign spending has less impact than people assume. But I'd have to know more about how SBF was spending his money. Possibly much better than average though e.g. how much he spent on a single primary in Oregon was somewhat bizarre. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The competition is fierce but this is a top 5 worst political take of all time. https://t.co/cmZcc8dkc8 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Wertwhile Yeah. The idea is for the experts to incorporate information about candidate quality and/or reported local knowledge about the campaign. To the extent they get more correlated with other indicators or with "vibes" that starts to get weird. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
To be clear, this wasn't my only take on the election (I also wrote a companion piece making the devil's-advocate case for Republican overperformance) but the "Nathaniel Bleu" view of the midterms wound up being eerily correct. https://t.co/hW61W9R920 https://t.co/x7Iben6INC — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@ne0liberal Yeah people have some oversimplified takes re: market efficiency. Even in sportsbetting, there are occasional cases (e.g. the Super Bowl or big UFC fights) where the public money trumps the sharp money. And elections have a *lot* public interest and few professional forecasters. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
On wall, the writing — PolitiTweet.org
Sean Golonka @s_golonka
In a new batch of 27.3k ballots counted in Clark County, here are the #nvsen results: - Cortez Masto received 17.2k… https://t.co/eRHMaFACHh
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@MattZeitlin For-fucks-sake-try-to-have-a-time-horizon-longer-than-next-weekism. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@katherinemiller There's something uncanny valley about it, like he's actually an AI-generated candidate. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@MattGrossmann @BenjySarlin @LPDonovan @DCCyclone @yeselson @JohnCassidy Maybe a better question for @baseballot, he was our House specialist this year. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@BenjySarlin @LPDonovan @DCCyclone @yeselson @JohnCassidy Our model had an R+4 popular vote, although it's more like R+2 or 3 when you adjust for uncontested races. And it had the Senate being highly competitive nonetheless and GOP House gains being pretty modest (though, they'll be even more modest in reality). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@LPDonovan @yeselson @JohnCassidy You also had, e.g. the NYT taking its own polls that were obviously good for Democrats and spinning them as good for Republicans. The narrative about the polls is different from the reality and at 538 we stuck to the reality. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@JohnCassidy No, because I don't really find it that illuminating. We have a process that's worked quite well over 14 years now. The process is to include partisan polls, but to assume they are biased based on how biased partisan polls have been on average in the past. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@PoliticsWolf Our forecast of the popular vote accounts for uncontested races and all that other jazz. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Nope, that's a trap. You don't want to arbitrarily exclude pollsters. RCP stopped including a bunch of pollsters because they thought they were too D-leaning based on 2016/2020. As a result, their polling averages did terribly on Tuesday whereas ours were quite good. — PolitiTweet.org
John Cassidy @JohnCassidy
The final Marist poll was on the money. All the rest of the last-minute polls were garbage and many of them were fr… https://t.co/vhND0Q1bHf
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Yair_Rosenberg My theory is that these midterms pierced Trump's aura of invincibility, in part because GOP expectations got so overinflated. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's not *that* far from the 538 Deluxe forecast, which had Rs winning the popular vote by 4 but only gaining 17 seats. And as per the chart below, because of uncertainty in votes -> seats, there were plenty of scenarios where the House was hard to call or even stayed D at R+4. https://t.co/RdxAE9a44U — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If your pre-election bingo card had a roughly R+4 national House vote and the House still not callable by the Frida… https://t.co/OzaUbbd4oD
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I think people are oversubscribed on the argument that Republican base voters won't listen to Republican elites on Trump. In 2016, the elites somewhat famously failed to coalesce around an alternative, but now they have one in DeSantis. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@StephenGutowski @BenjySarlin Yeah, I definitely think there's a demonstrated need for a Twitter-like product to exist. It's really in its own category more than being a competitor with e.g. Facebook. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@StephenGutowski @BenjySarlin Yeah, I think the question is whether a smaller company could do it, or even one that doesn't exist yet, given that a) it would need be in a position to scale up quite quickly and b) the mood for VC investment in tech/media is extremely bearish right now. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@joshtpm @jonmladd Is it... inherently that hard to monetize though? Various subscription models seem at least plausible. Twitter doesn't serve ads particularly aggressively (well at least not until the past few days). There are a lot of business-use cases too where it functions like a newswire. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@BenjySarlin I think Google (Alphabet) would be a better fit in certain ways. Maybe a media company too. Like it wouldn't be crazy for NYTimesCo to kick the tires on it. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@joshtpm Yeah I think Amazon or Apple or Google are all plausible enough and have more well-regarded brands, although the paradox here is that the better your brand is, the more you'd be putting at risk. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'm not sure people would buy the sales pitch. The public image of Facebook is quite poor and if anything it's even worse among media and tech elites, whose view actually matters if you're trying to start an avalanche of power users toward a new platform. https://t.co/NBVNtqVByc — PolitiTweet.org
Ben Collins @oneunderscore__
Mark Zuckerberg has a wide open lane for a second act if he creates something called InstaFeed and the first post i… https://t.co/Pod1cKUkHT
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
What will be the dominant Twitter-like social media platform in the United States in 18 months (May 2024)? (No dominant platform = no Twitter-like platform with >50% US market share). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's been very good to see losing candidates concede races quickly, but prediction markets think the Arizona governor race is going to be *verrrry* close once all votes are counted, so the streak might end with that one. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias @kevinroose @DKThomp @KelseyTuoc Also, as someone who used to work there, the NYT is not like other media outlets, the Ben Smith line about it being a "juicy collection of great narratives" is 100% true. That's the house style, though I've seen some efforts at more pluralism lately. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @lxeagle17: Nate called it pre-election but once again, it seems as if beltway insiders have ended up catastrophically wrong. Added on… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @kdrum: Betting markets lost big on Tuesday https://t.co/k2uBSa8IzE https://t.co/3M6k2Bi4Ke — PolitiTweet.org
