Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 31, 2022

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Sat Nov 12 17:45:29 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be clear, this wasn't my only take on the election (I also wrote a companion piece making the devil's-advocate case for Republican overperformance) but the "Nathaniel Bleu" view of the midterms wound up being eerily correct. https://t.co/hW61W9R920 https://t.co/x7Iben6INC — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 12, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ne0liberal Yeah people have some oversimplified takes re: market efficiency. Even in sportsbetting, there are occasional cases (e.g. the Super Bowl or big UFC fights) where the public money trumps the sharp money. And elections have a *lot* public interest and few professional forecasters. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 12, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Wertwhile Yeah. The idea is for the experts to incorporate information about candidate quality and/or reported local knowledge about the campaign. To the extent they get more correlated with other indicators or with "vibes" that starts to get weird. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 12, 2022