Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 29, 2022

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Fri Nov 11 17:02:34 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Yair_Rosenberg My theory is that these midterms pierced Trump's aura of invincibility, in part because GOP expectations got so overinflated. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 11, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not *that* far from the 538 Deluxe forecast, which had Rs winning the popular vote by 4 but only gaining 17 seats. And as per the chart below, because of uncertainty in votes -> seats, there were plenty of scenarios where the House was hard to call or even stayed D at R+4. https://t.co/RdxAE9a44U — PolitiTweet.org

If your pre-election bingo card had a roughly R+4 national House vote and the House still not callable by the Frida… https://t.co/OzaUbbd4oD

Posted Nov. 11, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Nope, that's a trap. You don't want to arbitrarily exclude pollsters. RCP stopped including a bunch of pollsters because they thought they were too D-leaning based on 2016/2020. As a result, their polling averages did terribly on Tuesday whereas ours were quite good. — PolitiTweet.org

The final Marist poll was on the money. All the rest of the last-minute polls were garbage and many of them were fr… https://t.co/vhND0Q1bHf

Posted Nov. 11, 2022