Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @sfrostenson: It was hard to understand the election night map if you weren't thinking about how the huge influx of mail ballots & the d… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck * Parts of IN are in the Chicago media market. * Beyond that, there are probably some regional rather than just home-state advantages. * Lots of volunteers able to head out from IL to door-knock in IN, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck Definitely one of the weirder results of all time. I think the Chicago thing mattered a lot. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@geoffreyvs Yeah I came verrrrrry close to tweeting out the map with Indiana in red. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With AZ and GA going blue, here are the remaining states that have been swept by one party in all 6 elections since 2000. https://t.co/rOGnFlLFuq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Obama '12 and Biden '20 will win by very similar margins in the popular vote. Dark blue = states that Biden won that Obama didn't Light blue = states that Obama won that Biden didn't. https://t.co/T6CdWW8h4u — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Redistrict: I've seen enough. No path back for Trump in AZ. https://t.co/30ms7WY4cb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @COVID19Tracking: Our daily update is published. States reported 1.4M new tests and 144k cases, another all-time high. 65.4k people are… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonst0kes They might if they were taking over today but by Jan. 20 I think a lot of states have already imposed lockdowns and in the states that haven't then maybe things have gotten so bad that they're achieved some degree of population-level immunity. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So Trump operatives are bragging about how the news media has called Alaska and North Carolina for them... while refusing to accept that the same news organization have called Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and the presidency for Biden. https://t.co/uSzTNjLsz3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave So sometimes you're going to miss in the same direction two cycle in a row, and sometimes it's going to bounce from once side to the other (i.e. low on Obama in 2012 then low on Trump in 2016). It's all pretty in line with the past behavior of polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave It's not clear that the error will be larger than 2016, FWIW, although probably. But again, I'm not a pollster. I'm someone who knows empirically that a) errors of this magnitude are fairly common and b) the direction of error is largely unpredictable. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonathanchait @AlecMacGillis I mean people were certainly quite joyous in NYC over the weekend. It felt like maybe the mood shifted on Monday here online but maybe not IRL. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Ehh. GA, PA, AZ all have more electoral votes and are probably more important going forward, and the polls were "fine" in those states. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That analogy is a bit unfair to pollsters because polling is *really hard*, especially given the level of precision that people expect. There's no way around the fact that y'all will have to calibrate those expectations more to the empirical reality of how accurate polls are. https://t.co/4YMPOkjL8c — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A rough analogy: If I were a pollster, I wouldn't consider the miss to be "acceptable", in the same way that you were a parent, you might not consider a C+ grade to be acceptable from your 10th grader. But if he usually got a mix of B's and C's, it also wouldn't be *surprising*. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is undoubtedly affected by my/538's vantage point, in that we're not pollsters but instead our job is to evaluate and forecast poll accuracy. From that standpoint, the "miss" this year of 3-4 points (for POTUS, maybe more for Congress) was fairly in line with expectations. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So... I've got a take on the polls up, which I think is a lot more equivocal than what you're seeing elsewhere. Here's the nut of it but it's pretty nuanced so you'll probably want to read the whole thing. https://t.co/NRvc31gsqZ https://t.co/8wJpb3uWDw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @AP_Politics: BREAKING: Republican Dan Sullivan wins reelection to U.S. Senate from Alaska. #APracecall at 8:17 a.m. Alaska Standard Tim… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @baseballot: .@geoffreyvs crunched the numbers, and Republicans have gained vote share in 7 out of 8 past GA runoffs, probably thanks to… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our model was about ~5 seats more bearish on Democrats than the consensus in the House and I can't say I spent a ton of time examining our House forecast this year but I'm pretty sure that's why; there was high risk of some mean-reversion for Democrats. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing to keep in mind about Democrats' performance in the House is that the 2018 environment was *great* (D +9 nationally) for them and it was going to be hard to top that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd thought Biden's margin was tracking to +4.3 or so, but we may wind up with something more like a +4.6 (so rounding up to 5 points) if ballots are this lopsided for him in NY and IL. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It does seem plausible/likely that Collins benefited from her no vote on Amy Coney Barrett, as there weren't a lot of polls late in the race there. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other thing about Maine is that Susan Collins beat her polls by considerably more than Trump did, which isn't particularly consistent with a lot of theories about "shy Trump" voters, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you're looking for hints about where the polls were off, it looks like Biden will beat his polls by ~3 points in Maine's 1st Congressional District (Portland and environs) but underperform them by ~11 points in its more rural 2nd Congressional District. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah it's a bit weird that Republicans are clinging to Trump when downballot Republicans outperformed Trump. https://t.co/qRYoaU5Hy9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've never seen a party so miserable after it just won a presidential election. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's a hard, annoying part of the job, but people who work in quantitative fields—whose work then becomes the subject of public attention—need to look carefully at how their work is being defined by others, and push back against incorrect framings where they can. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie Yeah, that I haven't looked at that carefully. But if you're betting on some sort of successful coup, it doesn't make a lot of sense to include Nevada in that plan, which is neither necessary or sufficient to execute on such a plan. — PolitiTweet.org